NC Central

[kiyoat]

OK, time for a new thread.  NC Central IS a D-1 opponent, I promise.... *looks it up* ... yes, definitely D-1.  Another opportunity to get better, get some confidence, and get a D-1 win.

NC Central was picked #4 of 8 in the MEAC

1 player picked for the preseason 2nd team:
Morgan Callahan, 6-1 Junior Forward

1 player picked for the preseason 3rd team
Kyla Bryant, 5-7 Soph Guard

Schedule:

w/l	Rank*	team	score
L	82	Georgia	52-96
L	55	Clemson	33-91
L	209	Wofford	56-75
L	203	Chattanooga	36-75
L	178	Charleston	54-84
L	43	Florida State	57-119

*Massey rank

Predictions:
Yotes win 77-59 (-18) Massey
Yotes win 76-57 (-19) WN

[kiyoat]

On paper USD is the better team... which clearly means this is going to OT.

[kiyoat]

NC Central has one of the least-efficient offenses in the NCAA.  They are scoring 61.9 points for every 100 possessions (#360 in NCAA)  the average WBB game currently has about 73 possessions, so that translates to about 45 points a game.

USD has the least-efficient defense in the Summit League.  We are allowing 103.0 points for every 100 possessions (#326 in NCAA), or about 75 points a game.

Luckily, NC Central's defense is worse, allowing 116.1 points per 100 possessions (#360 in NCAA), or about 85 points a game.

USD has an offense that is slightly above the national average, but below average for the Summit, scoring 94.6 points/100 poss (#159), or about 69 points a game.


....

If you average all of this, you come up with the Coyotes winning 77-60, which is almost exactly where Massey is predicting.  This would be my minimum expectation TBH.  If we exceed that, or if we are able to put bench players in the game at some point, I'll call that progress.  NC Central is probably exactly the right team for us at this moment.  A confidence builder.

[soofooyote]

Nov 19, 2024 16:11:28 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

If you average all of this, you come up with the Coyotes winning 77-60, which is almost exactly where Massey is predicting.  This would be my minimum expectation TBH.  If we exceed that, or if we are able to put bench players in the game at some point, I'll call that progress.  NC Central is probably exactly the right team for us at this moment.  A confidence builder.

....or a confidence killer if it doesn't go well.  Fingers crossed.

[kiyoat]

Since their best player is a big, this will be another test for this team... Can we actually contain a post player?

Most stats on their team are lead by the two previously mentioned players...



Kyla Bryant #5
SO G 5-7
14.8 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 2.5 Ast





Morgan Callahan #3
SR F 6-1
11.8 Pts, 6.3 Reb, 0.5 Ast

[kiyoat]

NC Central's previous game, condensed version:

[yote18]

those odds seem pretty generous I’m gonna say it ends up being a 3-5 point game.

[kiyoat]

Nov 20, 2024 12:14:29 GMT -6 yote18 said:

those odds seem pretty generous I’m gonna say it ends up being a 3-5 point game.

Possibly.  Despite NC Central's bad statistics, athleticism can make up for a lot vs the Yotes this year.  Lets hope that isn't the case.

[kiyoat]

[yote18]

Nov 20, 2024 12:14:29 GMT -6 yote18 said:

those odds seem pretty generous I’m gonna say it ends up being a 3-5 point game.

Yotes win 61-54

[kiyoat]

Nov 21, 2024 21:07:37 GMT -6 yote18 said:

Nov 20, 2024 12:14:29 GMT -6 yote18 said:

those odds seem pretty generous I’m gonna say it ends up being a 3-5 point game.

Yotes win 61-54

It was a closer game than the score would indicate, so I think you pretty much nailed it.