More than halfway through (sort of)

[yotemeal]

We're more than halfway through the season, but only 1/3 of the way through our conference schedule. We have 11 conference games remaining, four at home and seven on the road. Here are the current standings:

1. North Dakota State 5-0, 14-3
2. Western Illinois 5-0, 13-3
3. South Dakota State 3-2, 12-6
4. South Dakota 3-2, 7-10
5. Oakland 2-2, 7-11
6. Nebraska-Omaha 2-5, 5-14
7. IPFW 1-3, 8-10
8. UMKC 1-4, 4-13
9. IUPUI 1-5, 6-14

Here are our remaining games and my fairly conservative predictions:

Jan 12 vsUMKC 8:00 PM ET WIN
Jan 17 @ipfw 7:00 PM ET LOSS
Jan 19 @oak 6:00 PM ET LOSS
Jan 24 vsNEOM 8:00 PM ET WIN
Jan 31 @sdst 8:05 PM ET LOSS
Feb 2 @ndsu 8:00 PM ET LOSS
Feb 9 @umkc 6:15 PM ET LOSS
Feb 14 vsOAK 8:00 PM ET LOSS
Feb 16 vsIPFW 8:00 PM ET WIN
Feb 28 @iupu 7:30 PM ET WIN
Mar 2 @wiu 8:00 PM ET LOSS

If our season plays out like this, we would finish with a 7-9 conference record. I certainly think we have the potential to finish much stronger than that, but let's keep things conservative for a moment.

I think NDSU wins the regular season. They're the most complete team in the Summit. Runner-up falls to either WIU or SDSU. There's a big difference, of course, as the 1 and 2 seeds, assuming they both win, get a day off before their second game, unlike the winners amongst seeds 3-6.

I think USD, Oakland and IPFW are the strongest candidates to pick up the 4-6 seeds. I think 5 is the magic number. The 6 seed this year is going to have a tough matchup versus, probably, WIU or SDSU. Hell, I'd probably rather be a 7th seed and hope for an upset and the day off.

I probably would've thrown UMKC into the 4-6 mix before their loss to Omaha, but that just can't be overlooked. They've now lost nine straight games. I think they'll land on the 7th seed.

IUPUI is the only team to have already played six games in the conference, and they're not playing well at all. Five of their remaining 10 games are against XDSUs and WIU (not to mention a road game @ Oakland. With Omaha tournament ineligible, I'd say it's virtually a lock that IUPUI heads into the Summit League tournament as the 8th seed.

I may look silly in a couple of weeks, but this is how I think things might unfold down the stretch to the Summit League Tournament. I'd love to see the Yotes compete for a three seed or higher, but I'd be happy to see us land in the 4-5 game, which should be a winnable spot. Go Yotes!

[chuck]

Excellent analysis Yotemeal! Every game is important, but to me your analysis highlights Saturday night's game as an important one. We have to hold serve at home against the weaker Summit teams.

[wrj]

Jan 11, 2013 16:29:39 GMT -6 chuck said:

Excellent analysis Yotemeal! Every game is important, but to me your analysis highlights Saturday night's game as an important one. We have to hold serve at home against the weaker Summit teams.

I have to disagree with you a little bit Chuck. To be successful, you have to hold serve at home against all of the teams in the Summit!

[Cousin Eddie]

Fine analysis as always yotemeal.

[chuck]

Jan 11, 2013 20:42:29 GMT -6 wrj said:

Jan 11, 2013 16:29:39 GMT -6 chuck said:

Excellent analysis Yotemeal! Every game is important, but to me your analysis highlights Saturday night's game as an important one. We have to hold serve at home against the weaker Summit teams.

I have to disagree with you a little bit Chuck. To be successful, you have to hold serve at home against all of the teams in the Summit!

We agree on this, too.

[Coyote Fan]

Compared to last year I see a big step up with what the Men's team is doing this season. The loss against UMKC wasn't the best and I thought the loss at IPFW was a hard fought effort that fell a little short. I have one game on the calender that I think the Yotes will win and that is at UMKC. I really think they are gonna want to avenge the performance against them at home. I see a double digit win in the rematch despite it being in KC. Eventhough I think the game at NDSU may go down as a loss I think we will see a different USD team up there then we saw in Vermillion.

I would like to see the Yotes get a big win in Oakland. It's gonna be a tough one today but one that I think we will see a good effort from the Coyotes. A win will be tough, could happen-maybe not but I expect a close game.