Predictions for rest of season

[Yotes]

Just a week after things seemed a bit bleak, optimism is abound in Vermillion. Kevin Earl led us to a D Days victory in his first start, the defense is playing lights out and is ranked #1 (one!) in pass defense among FCS teams, and our freshmen running backs continue to impress. Here is what's left on the schedule:

10/12 vs Indiana State
10/19 at #4 Northern Iowa
10/26 at Illinois State
11/02 vs #18 Youngstown State
11/09 vs #11 Montana
11/16 vs #13 South Dakota State
11/23 at #1 North Dakota State

I think the rankings speak for themselves, any wins will be hard fought victories. Do the Coyotes have a few more wins left in the tank? We've defended the Dome thus far, perhaps we can make it a theme this year.

I don't think we have a snowman's chance in hell at UNI or NDSU, but see us having a shot against the other 5 opponents, if only because our defense is suffocating this year and because four of the games are at home.

My prediction: We take Indiana State and at least one of the November home games to finish the season at 4-8, a significant improvement over last year's mark, perhaps with a win over the in state rival with recent success that helps our image even more.

What do you think Coyote fans?

[Cousin Eddie]

I think you nailed it, though I would love to get a 5th somehow on the road at Illinois State, if only to get the road monkey off our backs.

[golfingyote]

I agree. It looks like Indiana State is our most winnable game left. And really we should be competitive against the bunnies, Youngstown, and Illinois St. Still, I am going with the 4-8 crowd. Very young team. The experience these young fellas get the rest of the way is invaluable and should keep the guys hungry to improve with a few of the shalackings we are inevitably going to take. UNI, NDSU, and Montana are all top 5 caliber teams. Interested to see how long we can hang in with Montana at home.

I've watched SDSU play twice, and honestly believe we can play with them in the Dome. They lost more than people realize to graduation. still a tough physical team, and we havent exactly shut down the run, but the dome will be rocking for that one.

[14lbenson]

10/12 vs Indiana State WIN
10/19 at #4 Northern Iowa LOSS
10/26 at Illinois State WIN
11/02 vs #18 Youngstown State LOSS
11/09 vs #11 Montana LOSS
11/16 vs #13 South Dakota State WIN
11/23 at #1 North Dakota State LOSS

This is a best case scenario situation. I think we have a chance v.s. SDSU in the dome. A pretty good chance. I think this week will be a win, and Illinois State will be a win...there are surely picks.

UNI will be tough to win, but I think it could be doable if we play our best game of the year. Same with NDSU.

[yotefan]

Eddie said it all for me. No matter what happens, this season will not be complete until we can finally win a game on the road. If we can pick up a win on Saturday, who knows what can happen at UNI. I was there the first year USD played the Panthers as a transitioning D-1 program and we hung tough with a Coyote squad that wasn't nearly as deep as our current team is today. First things first, get a W on Saturday and keep getting better week to week.

[golfingyote]

Oct 8, 2013 7:38:31 GMT -6 14lbenson said:

10/12 vs Indiana State WIN
10/19 at #4 Northern Iowa LOSS
10/26 at Illinois State WIN
11/02 vs #18 Youngstown State LOSS
11/09 vs #11 Montana LOSS
11/16 vs #13 South Dakota State WIN
11/23 at #1 North Dakota State LOSS

This is a best case scenario situation. I think we have a chance v.s. SDSU in the dome. A pretty good chance. I think this week will be a win, and Illinois State will be a win...there are surely picks.

UNI will be tough to win, but I think it could be doable if we play our best game of the year. Same with NDSU.

Guys, here's the deal. We are not beating NDSU, not even close, even if we play our best game of the year. UNI we could hang tough, but I really dont think we will be in the game in the 4th quarter. We make far too many mistakes. our special teams is a disaster, and our defense is honestly overrated at this point(who have we played?)

I am not trying to be a debbie downer. Just being more realistic that 4 wins total would not even be bad from here out with our schedule. We have 4 winnable games left. We would do well to win 2 of those. 3 would be awesome and icing on the cake.

[azsod73]

From the MVC teleconference on 09/08:

USD will be without star LB Tyler Starr for the first half due to an illegal hit he made on a quarterback in a 17-14 win over Missouri State. Also, Glenn said that OL Marc Murtha and FB Tom Manning likely are done for the season due to injury.

[yotemeal]

I'll start with the knowns. I fully expect UNI and NDSU to overmatch us, especially on the road. These are two losses and my only knowns.

Every other game, in my opinion, is reasonably winnable, i.e., unknown. I'm least confident in the Illinois State game, given our road problems. But I would be surprised if we're not competitive in every remaining Dome game (If you think about it, home losses by more than a score are a rarity for USD). Montana looked pedestrian against Northern Arizona. I'll be curious to see what they do this weekend at UC-Davis. I think all of our MVFC home opponents are a clear step down from UNI and NDSU.

Best case scenario: We win out at home, break the road losing streak at Illinois State and take lumps @uni and @ndsu, resulting in a 7-5 record.
Worst case scenario: Special teams continue to be a disaster, we fail to establish a vertical game and our defense finally throws in the towel, resulting in 2-10.
Completely biased prediction: We go 3-1 in our remaining home games and get swept on the road, resulting in a 5-7 record.

[obc]

I still see and predict a season of lumps and lessons for the players and staff.

The special teams problem has proved to be chronic in nature - blocked kicks were a problem last year and obviously continue to this year. Nothing I have seen leads me to believe this will be better and consistently not a liability.

Earl looks like he has tons of potential. He is inexperienced and every good QB I have been around will show flashes of brilliance mixed with bad decisions the result in turnovers and points for the opponent. The price of gaining experience.

Injuries are mounting on a relatively thin lineup. Two season Enders last week. Also not mentioned earlier but worth noting is Aaron Swift's injury last week and an apparent injury to Drew Iddings near the end of the game. Swift came back into the game late but was a huge liability out there. (remember how wide open the receivers were that the MSU QB couldn't connect with? Had those passes been accurate it would have been even more interesting. Iddings was really favoring his leg on the sideline and was limping off the field after the game. Both those guys are studs and not having them healthy hurts. Throw in T Starr being out the first half - that will put more pressure on the secondary.

I have stack ranked in order from most likely win to least likely IMO

1. YOUNGSTOWN St - I know they currently have only one loss, but I think this is a good matchup for the Yotes

2. INDIANA St - Shakir Bell is still knicked up - but so is USD. USD Cannot have special teams miscues nor can they turn the ball over in their own RedZone and expect to win. ISU has more firepower offensively than MSU did. Great test for the secondary.

3. Illinois St - road game makes me think this should be listed as third least likely to win, but the streak has to end sometime, right? ILLINOIS St is having issues with their OL and DL front as well as erratic QB play. Homecoming for Earl. His brother played for ISU before transferring to a small school in NY for his Sr year.

4. Montana - this very well could be a blow out loss for USD at home. Perhaps Montana will underestimate the Yotes and the Yotes will come ready and play a near perfect game. It will take an incredible effort.

5. Northern Iowa - They think USD is weak. UNI will expect to roll and I think Farley will run up the score if he can. This may be the toughest game for our OL. Protect Earl or we have 0% chance.

6. SDSU - Either SDSU will get their season turned around and be playing for a playoff spot or in the toilet and fighting for their lives. They are currently more physical on both lines of scrimmage and have an all FCS tailback coupled with an experienced QB. Throw in the fact they have a tall possession receiver and budding star at TE, I see a huge problem stopping their offense enough to reasonably expect what we have on offense to be able to keep up. I ranked them tougher to beat than UNI because SDSU will not take USD lightly.

7. NDSU - Unless the Bizon want to lose this one, they can choose the score. Just too physical and experienced. They will want to head into the playoffs with a sharp performance but I do not expect them to run up the score - at least with their starters on the field.


Realistically I predict two more wins (Youngstown St and Ind St). After that it is much less likely IMO. Four more would take an incredible improvement from what we have seen this year. Hope USD runs the table and each week as I watch, I will be cheering as loud as I can.

[golfingyote]

ABC, I like your first 3 rankings and analysis, couldnt agree more in fact. but SDSU has to be in the 4 slot. Eye test alone does it for me. Their offense couldnt get the ball past the 50 against NDSU at home. UNI almost beat the Bison in the Fargodome. With that being said, I think our defense will keep us in the game against SDSU. Their lines arent what they once were, and ours are far improved from a year ago.

I think you could argue the 4-5 between montana and SDSU, but gotta go with SDSU at 4 based on what ive seen. And UNI can take us lightly and it still will not matter. That game as well as NDSU will be a thumping.

[yotemeal]

My biggest concern is that I don't come back to my assessment and laugh after Saturday. When the monkey comes off a team's back, e.g., finally winning a conference game, sometimes the chip comes off the shoulder with it. I trust that Coach Glenn is not allowing his players (and coaches) to get comfortable after the Missouri State win. We are still perceived as a MVFC bottom feeder. The Missouri State message board is calling for the head coach's job after last Saturday, and many Indiana State fans see this Saturday as an easy win. We cannot come out satisfied and flat. Hungry and confident is the only way we will elevate.

As for those rankings, OBC, I'd probably go Indiana State, Youngstown, Montana, Illinois State, SDSU, UNI and NDSU. I don't think much separates the first five. UNI and NDSU are a cut above. The Dome is a great equalizer, and I hope we've found what it takes to "get over the hump."

[coyote70]

As I recall for some reason the Coyotes used to play UNI pretty tough on the road. Not saying we won very many games there but noboday else did either.

I think Northern Iowa is a good team for us to emulate if we don't go the ground game/triple option route, which is still my preference.

At this juncture I think we can safely mark up 2-3 more victories provided we count those times where we beat ourselves as wins.

Seriously, the one win we need is against State and that is doable. Two to three more wins (.500)would be Good and anything more puts us in the Great category.

[Yotes]

Oct 9, 2013 20:34:48 GMT -6 coyote70 said:

As I recall for some reason the Coyotes used to play UNI pretty tough on the road. Not saying we won very many games there but noboday else did either.

I'm not as old as others here, and only know of the UNI games since we moved to D-1. But that 60 point blowout sticks out in my mind.

Winning against Indiana State would be very big for us, but I think that perhaps taking the game at Illinois State might be more important. It's in the realm of possibility, and we really need to get a road win. I don't know if I can stand going another year without any wins away from the Dome. Missouri State found a way to blow them out, I'd love to take them in their house. Shame we didn't beat WIU.

Personally, I'd say any of our home games are possible wins as long as we score a few points. We've only lost one game by more than a touchdown in the Dome in the last decade. No one is safe here. That's it! I'm predicting we sweep the home schedule!

[jackit]

Oct 9, 2013 20:34:48 GMT -6 coyote70 said:

As I recall for some reason the Coyotes used to play UNI pretty tough on the road. Not saying we won very many games there but noboday else did either.

I think Northern Iowa is a good team for us to emulate if we don't go the ground game/triple option route, which is still my preference.

At this juncture I think we can safely mark up 2-3 more victories provided we count those times where we beat ourselves as wins.

Seriously, the one win we need is against State and that is doable. Two to three more wins (.500)would be Good and anything more puts us in the Great category.

2009- 66-7 

[yotefan]

Thanks Jackit.

9-6-2008, Northern Iowa beats South Dakota 24-13 in USD's first year in D-1.

Two weeks later on 9-20-2008 Northern Iowa beats South Dakota State 34-20.

Both games at UNI-Dome. 11 point spread v. 14 point spread.