@ SDSTC

[kiyoat]

BIG GAME!

This should be the 2nd of three Showdowns with State College.  First place in the standings is on the line.  This time it's in their house, probably the toughest place to play in the conference.  I suspect this will be a large crowd.

These teams are pretty evenly matched.  Injuries to top players have affected both teams.  Both teams have continued to dominate the conference anyway.  Both teams are led by battle-tested, proven head coaches.  

I assumed this would be a matchup a lot like last time, with the league's most efficient offense vs. the league's most efficient defense.  But I knew that both teams had evolved since then.  So I compared the major stats for both teams since January 11.  I'll post the results separately.  Jan 11 was Ober's first game back for the Jacks, and was the beginning of USD's defensive renaissance (The Oral Roberts game).......

[kiyoat]

Scoring Matchup (last 5 games)

USD is scoring 71.2 PPG vs SDSU allowing 59.0 = average 65.1
SDSU is scoring 73.8 PPG vs USD allowing 56.0 = average 64.9

wow! could this be any closer? basically predicting a 65-65 tie!

I think the Jacks offense and the Coyote's defense have both stepped it up amazingly through the season. I did not expect to see that.

[kiyoat]

Shooting Matchups (last 5 games)

USD is shooting 45.9% FG vs SDSU allowing 38.5% = average 42.2%
SDSU is shooting 43.6% FG vs USD allowing 36.3% = average 40.0%

USD is shooting 39.7% FG vs SDSU allowing 38.5% = average 39.1%
SDSU is shooting 36.5% 3P vs USD allowing 27.8% = average 32.2%

USD is shooting 81.5% FT
SDSU is shooting 82.3% FT!

wow.  Again this is way closer than I would like to see.  The Jack's offense is dangerous.  We still have a slight edge in Field Goal accuracy, a moderate edge in 3-point accuracy, but I can't believe that over the last 5 games they have shot better than us at the charity stripe!  I mean, we are top-five in the nation!

I think this game could come down to who fouls the most, and unfortunately, that may be us.

Another surprising number is our 3-point defense!  Coach P and the girls have dramatically improved in that stat.  Will be important going against Guebert.

[kiyoat]

Rebounding (last 5 games)

USD is out-rebounding opponents by 8.3 per game
SDSU is out-rebounding opponents by 4.3 per game

We have a slight edge, here. I didn't look at turnovers/blocks/steals. Mainly because this is kind of time-consuming. I know we have gotten better in all of those categories, but State has always been good there as well.

[kiyoat]

Overall, this should be a tough out for both teams. I predict an ugly, defensive battle of attrition. Would not be surprised at a tie or 1-point game again.  Would not be surprised at a blowout either way.  Would not be surprised at a few injuries.

Unfortunately due to the home court, the return of Ober, and the Jacks' improved free-throw shooting, I'll give them the nod.

Jacks win 62-61

[usdtator]

Hate State!

[yotebewithyou]

Frost is such a tough place to play and the Jacks seem to be in more of a rhythm right now... My heart tells me Yotes win 62-60 but my gut tells me the Jacks will take it by 4 or 5. I just hope the Yotes don't get blown out or suffer any injuries

[GoYotes]

Will likely be a large crowd in Brookings as the game is part of a double header with the SDSTC men playing ORU following the women's game. The ORU game is being promoted as the "Lamb Bonanza" and nothing brings out the crowd in Brookings like the promise of sheep.

[gopheryote]

Feb 3, 2017 11:21:17 GMT -6 GoYotes said:

Will likely be a large crowd in Brookings as the game is part of a double header with the SDSTC men playing ORU following the women's game. The ORU game is being promoted as the "Lamb Bonanza" and nothing brings out the crowd in Brookings like the promise of sheep.

[Coyote Fan]

I will have much more to say later about this game but this is the game all year that I always felt would end up with the worst result for the Coyote women. The Jacks needs the game a little more (which I will explain later) and I think they will win it fairly easily. I will go 79-61 for the Bunnies.

[yoteforever]

Here's my take. Both teams are dead even. Where I get nervous is that the refs I have seen officiate this year tend to get caught up in the emotion of the game and the crowds reaction. It shouldn't be that way but I feel strongly it is. SDSU will get 80% of the 50-50 calls. In order to win this game, they need to either play their way to a 7-10 point lead and hold it, or come back from a like amount where there's either silence or a nervous negative energy. Not sure if I'm being clear, but we need to control our destiny. I don't think focus or fear will come into play.

One thought I do have is winning the SLC tournament title, and as last year proved out, beating a team on par with you twice is tough. Three times is damn near impossible. For pride reasons I want to win. For going to the Big Dance, I'd rather lose by a fair amount. Gives us the edge in game 3 should we or SDSU be fortunate enough to get there.

[Coyote Fan]

Lets not forget that the Coyotes are 6-4 in the Summit and the Jacks are 10-0. Before fall practices even began Jacks fans and most media sources were already analysing what seed that SDSU would be in the NCAA Tourney. 7 seed maybe, possibly 5 or 6. Were they even going to hold the Summit League tourney and if they did would the other teams even show up in Sioux Falls out of fear of having to face the Jacks.

Then the alternate reality hit and here we go again, the Coyotes are a team to be reckoned with once again. How could this be. How could the Coyote program over come so much. The Jacks have about 99% of the pressure on their backs in the game tomorrow. I actually think that the Frost arena atmosphere will get the best of the Coyotes but what the Coyotes will gain is the experience of a very tough environment against them and I think that will help a lot in the Summit League Tourney. I think the next time around if there is one, the Coyotes will be better for it.

The Jacks do need the game against the Coyotes worse than the Coyotes need the game. If the Jacks lose it will guarantee they will lose the tie breaker to the Yotes and be forced to have to gain 2 games on them to over take them in the standings. If the Coyotes lose they may only need to gain one game back on the Jacks to finish ahead of them depending on the tie breaker.

I actually don't think the game in Frost is necessarily the most important game to finish out the year. Western Illinois and IUPUI are both actually in pretty good position to pass up both the Yotes and Jacks and win the conference. Both Dakota schools still have to play both of those teams on their home courts. Those games will in essence decide the conference and any of the 4 teams could come out on top.

For arguments sake lets say it comes down to USD and SDSU for the conference bragging rights.

SDSU plays vs USD, vs ORU, at IUPUI, at WIU, at Fort Wayne, vs Denver

USD plays at SDSU, at Fort Wayne, vs ORU, vs Omaha, at IUPUI, at WIU

Lets say that SDSU beats ORU, Fort Wayne and Denver and USD beats Fort Wayne, ORU and Omaha which is a good bet barring a big upset. Lets also assume the Jacks beat the Coyotes at Frost.

OK if you want a headache keep reading otherwise quit now. Then it all comes down to both teams games at WIU and IUPUI. The Jacks will play both of those teams while the Coyotes are hosting two very winnable games. If the Jacks lose to one and the Coyotes sweep then we have an interesting senario. If that loss is to IUPUI we need to hope IUPUI finishes ahead of WIU which would be likely especially since IUPUI swept WIU. If the Coyotes beat IUPUI (assuming IUPUI finished ahead of WIU) then they would own the tied breaker against the Jacks because of having swept the Jags. If the Jacks should beat IUPUI but lose to WIU then the tie breakers get a little more interesting because if the Coyotes beat WIU then the Jacks and Coyotes would have split with both of those teams. If there would end up being a head to head tie breaker between the Jacks and Coyotes it would come down to who finishes higher between Omaha and NDSU. We would want Omaha to finish higher since the Jacks lost to them and the Coyotes lost to NDSU. If Omaha does finish higher than the Coyotes would have swept the Mavs whereas the Jacks split. The breakers are decided by the head to head records vs the highest team in the standings not involved with the tied teams assuming head to head is even between two tied teams. Basically it's better to lose to a team lower in the final standings.

What is interesting is that if one of Western Illinois or IUPUI sweeps the Dakota schools at home my feeling is that we could have a very unexpected conference champ. I just hope that USD and SDSU don't end up in the 2, 3 spot and end up playing in the tourney semi-finals. But the upside to that is when that happened last the Coyotes went to the NCAA tourney.

Ok now that you have a massive migrane don't say I didn't warn you. :-)

[gopheryote]

The SLT will be quite different this year (maybe vs. the past 10), as there are 4 teams who could win it. It isn't just 2 tune-up games to get to the championship game. It makes getting a top-2 seed more important though. And thus why today's game could go a long way to securing one of those seeds.

BTW - I never buy the 'tournament is all that matters' narrative. There is more to play for than seeding for a tourney.

[azsod73]

Nicole Seekamp tweet this morning:

Finally the @sdcoyoteswbb play at a normal hour for me to watch and it's one of the best games of the year! Go kick some jackrabbit ass!

Gotta love it!

[coyotecrazie5]

So is this game streamed online? I have ESPN3 but not Midco at home.

www.goyotes.com/news/2017/2/3/womens-basketball-yotes-jacks-face-off-for-first-place-saturday.aspx