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Post by kiyoat on Nov 29, 2018 9:21:54 GMT -6
May as well start the thread...
This will arguably be a tougher opponent than Iowa State. Very stingy defense. They play in Brookings on Thursday, then Vermillion on Saturday. I'll guess they spend Friday travelling and practicing in our gym.
Massey gives the Jacks a 60% chance of winning, with a score of 60-56.
Massey gives the Yotes a 45% chance of winning, with a score of 56-59.
Low scoring seems right in both of those games. I'll make a bold prediction that someone won't break 50 points in at least one of those games. Hopefully it isn't us. I thought the girls got a lot of confidence in their arc shooting in this last game. Hopefully that continues.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 29, 2018 9:48:16 GMT -6
Things UWGB is really good at:
DEFENSE
Allows only 50.6 PPG(#15)-------[USD is scoring 78.6(#46)]
Allows only 31.9% FG%(#18)----[USD is shooting 44.0%(#79)]
Allows only 26.2% 3P%(#66)----[USD is shooting 34.7%(#75)]
BALL CONTROL
+8 Rebound Margin(#51)--------[USD is +5.7 (#86)]
OFFENSE
35.5% 3P shooting(#63)---------[USD is allowing 33.1%(#252)]
After this last game, I'm much less worried about that rebound margin. The overall defense is stingy, but the disparity between our 3PT defense and their 3Pt shooting worries me a little more.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 29, 2018 10:16:35 GMT -6
Things UWGB isn't particularly good at:
OFFENSE
Scoring 59.2 PPG(#274)-------[USD is allowing 57.1 PPG(#76)]
scoring 5.4 3PT/game(#223)---[USD is scoring 9.4 3PT/game(#24)]
PENALTIES
18.4 Personal Fouls/game(#187)--[USD is getting 17.3(#126)]
73 FT Attempts(#295)------------[USD has 113(#127)]
14.6 FT Att/game (no rank)------[USD has 16.1(no rank)]
67.1% FT%(#183)-----------------[USD shooting 77.9(#22)]
I think they will have a hard time scoring on us, unless they get hot from the arc. Both teams shoot a similar % 3-Pt, but we have far more attempts in a game. My guess is they have less players that are reliable arc shooters, so the poor ones just don't bother attempting it.
As for penalties, both teams foul a lot. It goes along with an aggressive defense, although their turnover and steal numbers weren't eye-popping. When you normalize for #games, we both go to the line a similar # of times, so neither team has been great at drawing fouls. We shoot a lot better from the stripe, and some of our players are outstanding there, like AA, McKeever and Duffy. Penalties and FT's will be big in this game, I think. Advantage Yotes.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 29, 2018 10:19:51 GMT -6
My prediction: Yotes win 65-55, and multiple players foul out. (not sure which side) A lot like our Wichita State game.
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Post by yoteforever on Nov 29, 2018 10:27:34 GMT -6
Things UWGB isn't particularly good at: OFFENSEScoring 59.2 PPG(#274)-------[USD is allowing 57.1 PPG(#76)] scoring 5.4 3PT/game(#223)---[USD is scoring 9.4 3PT/game(#24)] PENALTIES18.4 Personal Fouls/game(#187)--[USD is getting 17.3(#126)] 73 FT Attempts(#295)------------[USD has 113(#127)] 14.6 FT Att/game (no rank)------[USD has 16.1(no rank)] 67.1% FT%(#183)-----------------[USD shooting 77.9(#22)] I think they will have a hard time scoring on us, unless they get hot from the arc. Both teams shoot a similar % 3-Pt, but we have far more attempts in a game. My guess is they have less players that are reliable arc shooters, so the poor ones just don't bother attempting it. As for penalties, both teams foul a lot. It goes along with an aggressive defense, although their turnover and steal numbers weren't eye-popping. When you normalize for #games, we both go to the line a similar # of times, so neither team has been great at drawing fouls. We shoot a lot better from the stripe, and some of our players are outstanding there, like AA, McKeever and Duffy. Penalties and FT's will be big in this game, I think. Advantage Yotes. Giving aldewitt a run for his money on all this statistical data. NICE |
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Post by easmus on Nov 29, 2018 10:28:54 GMT -6
I hope our team has enough time to recover mentally and physically. Last year we were unable to bring the same effort against TCU as we did against Michigan State. Dawn even said after the TCU game they could’ve used one more day of rest after such a physical game. Different time of year, but still a concern.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 29, 2018 10:44:18 GMT -6
Things UWGB isn't particularly good at: OFFENSEScoring 59.2 PPG(#274)-------[USD is allowing 57.1 PPG(#76)] scoring 5.4 3PT/game(#223)---[USD is scoring 9.4 3PT/game(#24)] PENALTIES18.4 Personal Fouls/game(#187)--[USD is getting 17.3(#126)] 73 FT Attempts(#295)------------[USD has 113(#127)] 14.6 FT Att/game (no rank)------[USD has 16.1(no rank)] 67.1% FT%(#183)-----------------[USD shooting 77.9(#22)] I think they will have a hard time scoring on us, unless they get hot from the arc. Both teams shoot a similar % 3-Pt, but we have far more attempts in a game. My guess is they have less players that are reliable arc shooters, so the poor ones just don't bother attempting it. As for penalties, both teams foul a lot. It goes along with an aggressive defense, although their turnover and steal numbers weren't eye-popping. When you normalize for #games, we both go to the line a similar # of times, so neither team has been great at drawing fouls. We shoot a lot better from the stripe, and some of our players are outstanding there, like AA, McKeever and Duffy. Penalties and FT's will be big in this game, I think. Advantage Yotes. Giving aldewitt a run for his money on all this statistical data. NICE Thanks, but I'm not smart enough to come up with a predictive algorithm. I just look stuff up and report it. Kinda fun. The pre-game previews the schools put out have a lot of the same stuff. I just focus on what interests me, like game averages. Stats can be misleading when you don't normalize for # of games. Like our stats are based off 7 games, and UWGB'd are based off 5. So total rebounds is meaningless. Also, I don't really care much about all-time head-to-head records. They don't really have any bearing on the players right now, or how they might perform IMO. |
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 29, 2018 10:49:08 GMT -6
I hope our team has enough time to recover mentally and physically. Last year we were unable to bring the same effort against TCU as we did against Michigan State. Dawn even said after the TCU game they could’ve used one more day of rest after such a physical game. Different time of year, but still a concern. I agree. I also don't care for how little we are using our bench in these tougher games. Last night AA played 40 minutes, and Duffy played 38! We will need those two fresh on Saturday. |
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Post by elcoyote on Nov 29, 2018 11:16:32 GMT -6
Green Bay plays tonight up in Brookings so they will have even less time to recover from what will most likely be a closely contested, physical game.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 29, 2018 12:08:31 GMT -6
Green Bay doesn't have much for messge board discussion on WBB, but here is a link to their twitter site, (that has a link to their athletic department's preview article). It appears that they are practicing at the Sanford Pentagon today.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 29, 2018 12:51:52 GMT -6
I think Free-Throws will be a factor in this game, as they were with Wichita State. We have traditionally shot very well from the line, but here are our current % by player:
Starters:
11-11 100% Alison Arens
17-19 90% Madison McKeever
12-14 86% Ciara Duffy
6-7 --86% Chloe Lamb
12-18 67% Taylor Frederick
Other with 4+ attempts:
4-5 80% Peplowski
3-4 75% M. Arens
14-23 61% Sjerven
Basically our starting 4 guards are money from the line, and our two main post players are less efficient. That's pretty typical of a lot of teams, but this team is used to shooting in the 80's as a whole. Hopefully our posts will improve, since they get a lot of the contact and fouls. In the meantime, that will just play into the strategy in close games. McKeever's last free-throws iced this last game.
Also, Alison needs to draw more fouls, like she did two years ago. Right now it is mostly Sjerven and McKeever.
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Post by easmus on Nov 29, 2018 16:16:09 GMT -6
I’d bet that’s why Hannah didn’t play much in 4th last night is her FT %.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Nov 29, 2018 21:56:30 GMT -6
Safe to say that Green Bay is going to be ready to go Saturday.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 1, 2018 11:59:21 GMT -6
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Dec 1, 2018 14:33:25 GMT -6
These refs are horrible today.
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