2020-2021 WBB rankings/ NET/ Bracketology

[sdyotefan]

Just watched the 2nd half of the NC State
at SC game that NC State won 54-46.
Didn't look at stats but SC missed 6 straight FTs in the 3rd and 4th Q and didn't hit a lot of other shots. Rugged defensive game.

[gopheryote]

Dec 1, 2020 14:05:42 GMT -6 gopheryote said:

Dec 1, 2020 12:47:11 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

They should be right now - Iowa St. being ranked is a head-scratcher. SDSU plays Gonzaga on Sunday I think - a W there and they are in for sure. Even in Brookings I think Gonzaga likely has an edge in the matchup. (I was impressed with them.) Maybe we want SDSU to win & be ranked? Then if we sweep them in Brookings we are back into at-large territory? That may be our only shot for at-large?

South Carolina beat Iowa State today, so that ranking spot is now open for SDSU. Though, if they get ranked it was because they beat Gonzaga, not ISU.

That, and no doubt a bunch of voters no doubt confused SDSU for USD . (remember when SDSU fans used to say that about USD? Ahhh, good times.)

[kiyoat]

Dec 1, 2020 17:41:16 GMT -6 coyotecrazie5 said:

I think state beats Zaga on Sunday because even in an empty arena, Frost is a tough place to win.

winner winner, chicken dinner.

[kiyoat]

Dec 1, 2020 12:47:11 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

Week 2 AP Poll:  (as of Sunday)

#1 South Carolina
#13 Indiana
#18 Gonzaga
#19 Ohio State
#21 Missouri State
#23 Iowa State

#26 South Dakota State (31 votes)
#28 South Dakota (20 votes)

Looks like SDSU has a chance to be ranked next week.

12/7 AP Poll update:

#5 South Carolina
#15 Indiana
#18 Ohio State
#21 Missouri State
#22 South Dakota State
#25 Gonzaga

#27 Iowa State
(54 votes)
#28 South Dakota

Looks like State moved into a nice spot, with an opportunity to move even higher with a win over Missouri State...
Meanwhile, SC and the Zags tumble after losses, and we disappear from the rankings.  Surprised Iowa State is still that high, TBH.  Grit your teeth, and root for all of them, including all the other Summit teams...

[kiyoat]

Polls update:

AP poll:
SDSU #33 (4 votes)

Coaches Poll:
SDSU #27 (19 votes)
USD #34 (6 votes)
NDSU #36 (1 vote)

This is a good thing, I think.  If we can keep getting some votes and keep winning games, we could claw our way back to a ranking in the Coaches Poll.  In the grand scheme of things, poll rankings won't technically help you with the selection committee, but I think it helps with national awareness and recognition, ....  which can help in recruiting.

[Coyote Fan]

Questionable losses don't seem to hurt South Dakota State very much and IMO the Coyotes should be ranked ahead of the Jacks in these polls. The Coyotes have actually not had a questionable loss since at least the 2018-2019 season. I don't believe they have a loss to an unranked top 25 team in nearly 2 years. That is an incredible run really. The Coyotes don't lose games they are not supposed to and actually perform well on the road unlike a particular team.

[Deleted]

My Regional Rankings (IA-MN-NE-ND-SD-WI) thru games of 12/17/2020:

#. Team Rec Massey AP Coaches Losses
1.Iowa 4-1 23 39 29 MSU
2.USD 3-2 41 34 SC, Gonzaga
3.SDSU 4-2 47 33 27 KSU, UNI
4.ISU 4-3 31 27 33 Iowa, SDSU, SC
5.Drake 2-3 59 GB, Iowa, SDSU
6.Marqu 5-1 46 Milwaukee
7.Crei 2-4 67 Drake, UNI, SDSU, Uconn
8.NE 3-1 57 Creighton
9.NDSU 4-1 107 35 ISU
10.UNI 3-3 74 Iowa, NDSU, ISU
11.Mil 5-1 69 Bowling Green
12.WI 2-2 79 Iowa, Rutgers
13.MN 1-3 109 Drake, MSU, NW
14.GB 1-4 150 NDSU(2), Milwaukee(2)
15.OMA 1-4 204 ISU, IL, ILL St, KSU
16.UND 0-5 222 Marq, MT ST, MT, WI, NDSU

[kiyoat]

^^^^^great idea!

[kiyoat]

First NET rankings 1/5/21

LINK

NET-----------RPI
41 USD-----9 SDSU
42 SDSU---137 NDSU
80 NDSU---153 USD

206 UMKC---199 UMKC
216 Omaha--228 ORU
240 Denver--232 Omaha
249 UND-----290 UND
280 WIU-----291 WIU
286 ORU-----302 Denver

[kiyoat]

with this ranking, both SD teams will be a little on the outside of an at-large bid (I think). In the past the cut-line for RPI was maybe 35 for mid-majors and 50 for P5 schools. We won't play any more high-ranked teams, so I assume both our rankings will tread water or backslide, even with wins.

OTOH, since the NET looks at offensive/defensive efficiency stats, by trouncing the Summit teams we might have a chance. Who knows?

Also: look at how high ORU is on the RPI.  They are terrible, but had a high Strength of Schedule.  Just shows how the RPI placed too much weight on that one aspect.

And of course, USD's low RPI is ridiculous.

[Deleted]

Jan 5, 2021 14:53:42 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

with this ranking, both SD teams will be a little on the outside of an at-large bid (I think). In the past the cut-line for RPI was maybe 35 for mid-majors and 50 for P5 schools. We won't play any more high-ranked teams, so I assume both our rankings will tread water or backslide, even with wins.

OTOH, since the NET looks at offensive/defensive efficiency stats, by trouncing the Summit teams we might have a chance. Who knows?

Also: look at how high ORU is on the RPI.  They are terrible, but had a high Strength of Schedule.  Just shows how the RPI placed too much weight on that one aspect.

And of course, USD's low RPI is ridiculous.

It would be nice if we could pick up another game against a quality opponent next week during our bye week.

[kiyoat]

Sure, that would be good for our sos. Luckily we are no longer dealing with the stupid RPI rankings anymore, so maybe we will still have a chance to prove ourselves as a worthy team by just being awesome (having a high net efficiency score).

[gopheryote]

One thing that will be interesting to watch play out - this year only - is that NET treats home vs. away differently. Since there isn't a balanced conference schedule this year, it is possible that either USD or SDSU could not see the large drop. Maybe beating a top 150 or so on the road isn't as negative? Though beating that same team at home still won't help though.

[kiyoat]

For anyone interested in why the NET is different than the RPI, ....

There are components of the NET that mirror the RPI, using Wins, Losses, Strength of schedule,  and weather the win was Home, Road, or Neutral Location.  The calculation is a little different, but substantially the same.

Then there is the "Net efficiency" part.

Net efficiency is the "offensive efficiency" minus the "defensive efficiency".

The Off Efficiency is the "points scored per possession"
The Def Efficiency is the "points given up per possession"

So I haven't found a source that ranks these for all the D1 teams, since these aren't standard stats..... BUT........ 

"Scoring Margin" somewhat gives you the same thing, minus the number of possessions.  So here are the National rankings for Scoring Margin:

margin	rank	team
16.1	43	USD
6.4	101	NDSU
5.7	108	SDSU
2.1	141	KC
-10.4	282	Denver
-11.4	290	UND
-12.6	295	WIU
-13.0	297	Omaha
-21.0	319	ORU

[kiyoat]

Jan 6, 2021 9:33:51 GMT -6 gopheryote said:

One thing that will be interesting to watch play out - this year only - is that NET treats home vs. away differently. Since there isn't a balanced conference schedule this year, it is possible that either USD or SDSU could not see the large drop. Maybe beating a top 150 or so on the road isn't as negative? Though beating that same team at home still won't help though.

The RPI was adjusted a number of years ago to weight home/away/neutral as well, but I don't know to what degree compared with the NET.  The new formula might weight it more, but I couldn't say.