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Post by kiyoat on Jan 6, 2021 9:46:56 GMT -6
I hate to say it, but the way for us to get a higher NET ranking might be to make sure our margin of victory is as high as possible. That could get ugly in Summit games. Regular coaching conventions of avoiding embarrassing your opponent in a blow-out go out the window.
The original NET formula (a couple of years ago) used "margin of victory" capped at 10 points, in addition to the NET efficiency. They scrapped that, but the efficiency part basically still incentivizes big wins.
Remember when "Margin of victory" was a hugely controversial part of the BCS formula in football? They eventually had to take it out.
Maybe the "possessions" part normalizes the stats, or mutes the effect of blowouts? I don't think it does. The # possessions basically normalizes the difference between a team that plays fast (more points, but also more points given up) and a team that plays slow (less points scored and given up).
Margin of Victory almost does the same thing, but less perfectly. It rewards fast teams over slow ones a tiny bit, but mostly normalizes it.
In conclusion: we should continue to have a high margin of Victory, and that might be enough to raise our NET rating, or at least not lose ground.
I think an at-large is probable for SDSU this year, and possible for USD.
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Post by brianhaenchen on Jan 6, 2021 21:19:54 GMT -6
For anyone interested in why the NET is different than the RPI, .... There are components of the NET that mirror the RPI, using Wins, Losses, Strength of schedule, and weather the win was Home, Road, or Neutral Location. The calculation is a little different, but substantially the same. Then there is the "Net efficiency" part. Net efficiency is the "offensive efficiency" minus the "defensive efficiency". The Off Efficiency is the "points scored per possession" The Def Efficiency is the "points given up per possession" So I haven't found a source that ranks these for all the D1 teams, since these aren't standard stats..... BUT........ "Scoring Margin" somewhat gives you the same thing, minus the number of possessions. So here are the National rankings for Scoring Margin: | margin | rank | team | | 16.1 | 43 | USD | | 6.4 | 101 | NDSU | | 5.7 | 108 | SDSU | | 2.1 | 141 | KC | | -10.4 | 282 | Denver | | -11.4 | 290 | UND | | -12.6 | 295 | WIU | | -13.0 | 297 | Omaha | | -21.0 | 319 | ORU |
I took a stab at efficiency ratings. Will try to do this on a weekly basis moving forward. FWIW: I also thought at-large was probable for SDSU, possible for USD (not nearly as confident), but in tracking these NET rankings (they're updated daily), I think USD has a real solid chance at an at-large, too. I think that efficiency rating + neutral site games vs. South Carolina and Gonzaga + road game at Oklahoma really bolster the NET. (I could be completely wrong, though...it's a complicated deal). |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 6, 2021 23:38:24 GMT -6
I took a stab at efficiency ratings. Will try to do this on a weekly basis moving forward. FWIW: I also thought at-large was probable for SDSU, possible for USD (not nearly as confident), but in tracking these NET rankings (they're updated daily), I think USD has a real solid chance at an at-large, too. I think that efficiency rating + neutral site games vs. South Carolina and Gonzaga + road game at Oklahoma really bolster the NET. (I could be completely wrong, though...it's a complicated deal). Complicated, indeed. If the NCAA wasn't so secretive about the exact formula, it would make things a little easier to understand. I understand why they do that, but it still sucks. Thanks for the post and calcs! I'll keep an eye on your twitter feed. |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 7, 2021 8:11:56 GMT -6
New Bracketology out: LINKSDSU 8-seed at-large USD 12-seed auto-bid |
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Post by 88grad on Jan 7, 2021 12:52:09 GMT -6
At least we've beaten Michigan State before.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Jan 7, 2021 22:51:07 GMT -6
At least we've beaten Michigan State before. The game would be on a neutral court as well (by one seeding spot) so the chances would be enhanced a little more. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2021 11:08:02 GMT -6
This is my IA-MN-NE-ND-SD-WI Women's Basketball Regional Ranking thru games of 1/8/2021. The Coyotes have the best NET in the 6 state region. Notice Omaha's NET is better than the Gophers!
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| W | L | Massey | AP | Coaches | NET | Losses | | 1 | Iowa | 8 | 1 | 21 | 29 | 28 | 31 | MSU | | 2 | USD | 7 | 3 | 35 |
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| 21 | SC,Gonz,OK | | 3 | SDSU | 8 | 2 | 41 | 27 | 26 | 49 | KSU,UNI | | 4 | Iowa State | 6 | 4 | 33 | 35 |
| 35 | Iowa,SDSU,SC,Tex | | 5 | Marquette | 6 | 1 | 46 |
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| 47 | Milwaukee | | 6 | Nebraska | 5 | 4 | 53 |
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| 81 | Creigh,Ind,Pur,MI | | 7 | Drake | 5 | 6 | 64 |
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| 77 | GB,Iowa,SDSU,Tex,ISU,Brad | | 8 | Creighton | 3 | 6 | 78 |
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| 107 | Drake,UNI,SDSU,UConn,Nova,DePaul | | 9 | Milwaukee | 10 | 1 | 66 |
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| 40 | Bowling Green | | 10 | NDSU | 7 | 2 | 99 |
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| 84 | ISU,WILL | | 11 | Minnesota | 2 | 5 | 92 |
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| 212 | Drake,MSU,NW,Ind,Iowa | | 12 | Wisconsin | 3 | 5 | 95 |
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| 185 | Iowa,Rut,MI,MN,NW | | 13 | Northern Iowa | 6 | 5 | 75 |
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| 69 | Iowa,NDSU,ISU,SDSU,Valpo | | 14 | Green Bay | 4 | 4 | 116 |
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| 117 | NDSU(2),Milwaukee(2) | | 15 | Omaha | 1 | 5 | 205 |
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| 207 | ISU,IL,Ill St,KSU, NDSU | | 16 | UND | 0 | 8 | 266 |
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| 278 | Marq,MT ST,MT,WI,NDSU,Tol,KC,ORU |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 9, 2021 11:50:26 GMT -6
Nice work! I'd love for our team to get a crack at literally all of those teams this year. Maybe in the Tourney?
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 10, 2021 15:01:55 GMT -6
NET ranking going in to Saturday's games: USD #21 SDSU #49
After Saturday's Games: USD #23 SDSU #53 (WIU was #264 and KC was #289)
Since USD was #35 on Jan 4th, I assume a big reason for the jump to #21 was a ridiculously efficient game 1 vs KC. SDSU had two ho-hum wins against WIU, so they dropped from #46 in that time frame.
Question: Is there a place/stat that tracks the efficiency stats for each game? Like in the live stats or box score? It feels like such a black box to me. Would be interesting to see if the teams are above/below their efficiency averages in some of these games where the outcomes are not really ever in question.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Jan 10, 2021 16:07:57 GMT -6
I really like this new NET ranking system. The Coyotes are simply taking care of business in dominating fashion and that should count for something. The games in the non conference season have more than prepared the Coyotes for the Summit League. The consistency that this team plays with is unreal.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 11, 2021 9:50:24 GMT -6
Question: Is there a place/stat that tracks the efficiency stats for each game? Like in the live stats or box score? I don't think so. I did see "#possessions" in the live stats (under team comparisons), but I don't think that shows up in the box score or the official NCAA stats. The # of possessions is the hardest thing to calculate. Once you have that, it's just "points per possession", and you subtract offense from defense for the "NET efficiency". |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 11, 2021 10:02:37 GMT -6
First NET rankings 1/5/21 LINKNET-----------RPI 41 USD-----9 SDSU42 SDSU---137 NDSU80 NDSU---153 USD206 UMKC---199 UMKC 216 Omaha-- 228 ORU240 Denver--232 Omaha 249 UND-----290 UND 280 WIU-----291 WIU 286 ORU-----302 Denver 1/11/21 NET-----------RPI
21 USD------ 25 SDSU
51 SDSU---- 98 USD82 NDSU---- 154 NDSU203 Omaha--- 216 UMKC213 Denver-228 Omaha 257 WIU------254 ORU 266 ORU------257 WIU 279 UND------ 285 Denver286 UMKC----329 UND |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 11, 2021 10:09:18 GMT -6
A lot of difference between the two rankings still. I expect volatile movement from the RPI early in the season, but it starts to zero in at about the halfway point. The NET really didn't like KC this week with the blowout loss, but Denver has held steady despite us blowing them out once. I guess they had some better non-con opponents to fall back on, where KC basically played nobody. So you have to do both. That makes a lot of sense to me.
With this system we might actually have a shot at an at-large. We will still have to beat the Jacks at least once, maybe twice.
I have to think that the Jacks' NET score will move upward when they play a few mismatched games in the Summit League. Really, they should have handled Western, but you just never know with that team. Western can be hot and cold.
SOS is still part of the equation, and that will be a negative force trying to pull both SD schools' rankings down. At least we now know that scoring margin can be a counter-force.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 18, 2021 8:55:16 GMT -6
1/11/21 NET-----------RPI
21 USD------ 25 SDSU
51 SDSU---- 98 USD82 NDSU---- 154 NDSU203 Omaha--- 216 UMKC213 Denver-228 Omaha 257 WIU------254 ORU 266 ORU------257 WIU 279 UND------ 285 Denver286 UMKC----329 UND 1/18/21 Monday NET*-----------RPI 20 USD------- 38 SDSU49 SDSU------ 89 USD100 NDSU--- 176 NDSU210 Omaha---213 Omaha 211 Denver--- 241 UMKC258 ORU------250 ORU 268 UND------261 WIU 270 WIU------ 291 Denver274 UMKC----318 UND * through Saturday's games (no Sunday games) |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 18, 2021 8:59:34 GMT -6
So both USD and SDSU move up incrementally in the NET, but in the RPI SDSU drops 13 spots while USD moves up 9 spots. The RPI is prone to those wild fluctuations.
Notably, WIU dropped in the NET.
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