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Post by captaincoyote on Feb 15, 2022 9:48:12 GMT -6
We've lost to someone other than SDSU once in the last 5 seasons. I'm not saying that it can't happen, but it just doesn't.
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Post by GoYotes on Feb 18, 2022 8:32:47 GMT -6
Creme now has the bunnies as the Summit League AQ at a 13 seed and the Yotes are not in the field.
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Post by announcerbob on Feb 18, 2022 9:06:11 GMT -6
Creme now has the bunnies as the Summit League AQ at a 13 seed and the Yotes are not in the field. Not sure where this comes from but I just checked the latest bracketology from Charlie 2/18/2022 at 8:45 am. It still shows the bunnies as a team that is still out and shows the Yotes as an AQ (9 seed) in the Stanford Region. |
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Post by GoYotes on Feb 18, 2022 9:31:53 GMT -6
I see that he once again has the Yotes in the field as a 9 seed and the bunnies aren't in the field. I have no idea what happened but when I checked earlier this morning (and after a couple of cups of coffee), he had the bunnies as a 13 seed.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 18, 2022 10:45:07 GMT -6
I see that he once again has the Yotes in the field as a 9 seed and the bunnies aren't in the field. I have no idea what happened but when I checked earlier this morning (and after a couple of cups of coffee), he had the bunnies as a 13 seed. I think you can sometimes see an old bracketology from previous years if you search for it and end up clicking on the wrong link. It's happened to me. You can also accidentally link to an old version of the Warren Nolan site. It's strange. Or, maybe they messed up and fixed it quick. 13-seed would make sense for a "next four out" team. Looks like the jacks moved up from an "8th team out" to a "5th team out" in today's bracketology. They would be close to a 12-seed then. |
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 18, 2022 11:21:08 GMT -6
after Thursday's road win vs St Thomas: RPI drops 4 points from ----------#59 to #63 net efficiency rises 3 points from #18 to #15 (highest of season) NET ranking rises from #37 to #36 (SDSU rises from #39 to #38)
This is the Way.  Under the RPI we'd likely be looking at a 14 or 15-seed right now, with zero chance of either SD team getting an at-large (SDSU would be looking at around a 12 or 13-seed with their higher #52 RPI rank). The NET system is accurately keeping both schools hovering at a similar ranking in the high 30s -- and getting votes in the Coaches Poll, too. |
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Post by Coyote Fan on Feb 18, 2022 13:20:08 GMT -6
I think that the Summit should be a one bid league this year. The Coyotes and Jacks both had their chances at proving themselves in the non conference season and neither did IMO. It is easy beating up on these weak Summit teams and makes a team look better than they really are. The Oklahoma game was the Coyotes chance, and they did not come through simple as that. I think the biggest mistake was that it was the first game of the season and it is hard to be at mid season form that early.
Do the Coyotes have the depth to win 3 games in 4 days. People may not agree with this but I think Sjerven should be held to no more than 30 total minutes played (but I say more like 20) in the first 2 Summit tournament games to be ready for the final. The Coyotes are good enough to get through without having her, and even if they are not they are going to have to get used to it very quickly. The Coyotes need every little advantage they can possibly have to get by the Jacks in the final.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 18, 2022 14:12:18 GMT -6
I don't see how it can be a two-bid league. The only out of conference win over a projected tourney team is Creighton, unless I'm missing something. Love to be wrong but the loser of the third matchup shouldn't be expecting anything but a WNIT bid on selection day.
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Post by gopheryote on Feb 18, 2022 16:09:49 GMT -6
I don't see how it can be a two-bid league. The only out of conference win over a projected tourney team is Creighton, unless I'm missing something. Love to be wrong but the loser of the third matchup shouldn't be expecting anything but a WNIT bid on selection day. My gut is to agree with this, but head gives me a different story. There are 32 auto-bids and 36 at-large bids. Let's just assume 10 auto bids go to teams higher than USD in NET rankings, leaving 26 teams with better NET scores vying for 36 spots. Are there 36 obviously better resumes in the top 60 NET teams (my assumed ceiling)? Yotes would likely be 25-6 and 5-6 against Q1/Q2 teams, with a NET that is Top 40. Remember, they need to select 36 teams. SDSU has a much harder path though. They would likely be 22-9 and 3-9 against Q1/Q2, including 0-7 against Q1. Finding 36 better resumes than that may not be too difficult. |
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 18, 2022 16:44:08 GMT -6
Would I be thinking NET ranking was going to save me from some middle of the road high-major leapfrogging me, especially if it's somebody like Texas A&M that beat me on a neutral floor? No, I wouldn't.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 18, 2022 16:53:08 GMT -6
The fact that two of the eight teams currently on the bubble outside looking in are high majors with head to head wins over you would make me extremely nervous if I didn't have an auto bid.
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Post by gopheryote on Feb 18, 2022 17:41:39 GMT -6
Would I be thinking NET ranking was going to save me from some middle of the road high-major leapfrogging me, especially if it's somebody like Texas A&M that beat me on a neutral floor? No, I wouldn't. 100% agree. But there are not many obvious TA&M type teams there. Look at the teams ranked below USD in the T60 as of today. P5 schools are in red - and Creme has most of those schools already in the tourney. Some of the teams in black will likely win their conference (SD schools, FCGU, Missouri St.) and one of the 4 of the teams from the A-10. Current Prev School Conf Record Road Neutral Home Non-D1 36 37 South Dakota Summit League 20-5 9-1 1-3 10-1 1-0 37 36 FGCU ASUN 20-2 7-0 6-0 7-2 3-0 38 39 South Dakota St. Summit League 17-8 7-5 1-1 9-2 1-0 39 38 Arizona St. Pac-12 12-9 1-5 1-2 10-2 0-0
40 41 Missouri St. MVC 17-5 6-3 1-1 10-1 1-0 41 44 Florida SEC 20-6 7-2 3-1 10-3 0-0
42 42 Texas A&M SEC 14-11 1-7 3-0 10-4 0-0
43 40 Duke ACC 15-10 6-4 1-0 8-6 0-0
44 43 South Fla. AAC 18-7 6-3 4-2 8-2 0-0 45 45 DePaul Big East 21-7 7-3 2-1 12-3 0-0 46 47 Dayton Atlantic 10 20-4 8-1 3-1 9-2 0-0 47 48 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 21-5 9-1 2-1 10-3 0-0 48 49 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 20-4 9-2 0-1 11-1 0-0 49 50 Oregon St. Pac-12 12-9 3-5 2-2 7-2 0-0
50 46 Missouri SEC 16-10 5-7 1-0 10-3 0-0
51 53 Florida St. ACC 14-11 4-6 0-2 10-3 0-0
52 51 UNI MVC 15-8 6-6 1-1 8-1 1-0 53 52 Mississippi St. SEC 15-10 3-5 1-1 11-4 0-0
54 55 UCLA Pac-12 11-9 2-4 1-3 8-2 0-0
55 54 Kentucky SEC 12-11 2-6 0-0 10-5 0-0
56 56 Boston College ACC 16-10 4-7 0-0 12-3 0-0
57 58 Middle Tenn. C-USA 18-5 7-4 1-1 10-0 0-0 58 57 SFA WAC 20-3 8-3 3-0 9-0 2-0 59 62 Belmont OVC 17-7 9-5 0-0 8-2 0-0 60 59 Fordham Atlantic 10 16-7 5-4 1-2 10-1 0-0 |
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 18, 2022 17:52:06 GMT -6
I don't dispute at all that if we think the committee is going to just go down the NET list then the U-State loser has a chance of sneaking into the field.
But I don't actually believe that's going to happen. You've got to have something that people on the committee can look at like, "Oh, they beat two teams in the Top 25. Or they went on the road and knocked off a couple high majors." Something tangible that sticks in people's minds.
I'm just not convinced (at all) that a mathematical formula is going to save the loser of that game. They simply did not do enough out of conference to make it. Like I said, I'll be more than happy to be wrong, and I think we all agree that the U has the better shot at getting an at-large ... but outside of a computer ranking that doesn't seem to always make a whole lot of sense there's not much meat on that resume.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 18, 2022 18:06:07 GMT -6
The Paradise Jam is going to be the downfall, I think. You play three neutral-floor games against what has turned out to look like fairly mediocre high-major competition and get flat handled in two of them (by bubble teams) and need OT to beat a team that's now 11-15 ... it's hard to make a real good at-large case out of that.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 18, 2022 18:06:51 GMT -6
That said, just go out and hold State to 40-some points and make it all a moot point.
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