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Post by gopheryote on Feb 18, 2022 19:45:29 GMT -6
Again - I agree. In fact, though it won't be well received, I don't think either SD school passes the eye test most nights either. But there is a pretty reasonable path for USD.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 18, 2022 20:08:58 GMT -6
Funny that. Are you saying that after years of fans Rodney Dangerfielding things, USD/SDSU women’s hoops reputations may be outpacing reality?
On a more serious note, I’m just hoping that after the careers these seniors have had and all the things they’ve done together for so long, they can really put it all together, draw on all that experience, relax and enjoy these last games together and play their best. Sjerven just going Summit Shaq. Lamb doing a Kobe impression. Go out guns blazing.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Feb 18, 2022 23:31:10 GMT -6
The big thing I personally look at is "who did you beat", not who did you play. Anyone can play a tough non conference schedule and lose many of the games. The Coyotes needed to beat either Oklahoma or Texas A&M and they did neither. If the Coyotes get an at large I think they should consider themselves very lucky. I do agree that the NET is a good formula (if we know exactly what it is, LOL) for considering margin of victory. I just don't think beating Omaha or Oral Roberts by 30 or 40 is really that great of a feat. The Coyotes tend to beat over matched teams by a lot but when they play at or above their level this year they haven't been producing the goods.
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steelsd
Sophomore Member
Posts: 172 
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Post by steelsd on Feb 19, 2022 11:30:49 GMT -6
The big thing I personally look at is "who did you beat", not who did you play. Anyone can play a tough non conference schedule and lose many of the games. The Coyotes needed to beat either Oklahoma or Texas A&M and they did neither. If the Coyotes get an at large I think they should consider themselves very lucky. I do agree that the NET is a good formula (if we know exactly what it is, LOL) for considering margin of victory. I just don't think beating Omaha or Oral Roberts by 30 or 40 is really that great of a feat. The Coyotes tend to beat over matched teams by a lot but when they play at or above their level this year they haven't been producing the goods. This is the crux of the argument. At the end of the day who did you beat? And SDSU has the same problem. Yes we have a win over then ranked UCLA, but that has since lost it’s luster. We had chances to have an argument by beating Iowa State, Kansas State, or Mississippi State. But we didn’t win, so how can we really complain about being left out? It’s great to be able to tout the strength of your non-con, but then you better actually win some of those games. I would be shocked if the Summit wasn’t a one bid only league with likely 2 WNIT teams. |
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Post by Coyote Fan on Feb 19, 2022 13:02:37 GMT -6
For whatever reason other than the South Dakota schools the league just isn't committed to winning Women's Basketball. NDSU is a football school and UND is so overwelmingly hockey that the other winter sports just coast alongside without a real passion to make them great. As long as UND hockey is doing fine, UND sports is doing fine. As long as NDSU football is doing fine, NDSU is doing fine. USD doesn't have that hang your hat on type program. The Summit League is so very mediocre and I don't really see a vision there to make it better. Adding KC back to the league say all you need to know with the direction of the League. They should have never been let back in. It reeks desperation. Unfortunately Women's basketball doesn't drive anything. If it did the Valley all sports conference would be begging to get USD in.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 21, 2022 11:20:03 GMT -6
Just updated a lot of stuff on the first post:
-SDSU now just ahead of USD in NET rank (#36 vs #37). This has been neck-and-neck for a month. Hard to predict how it will look after the final games.
- Summit standings have solidified three seeds (3 through 5), but lots still up in the air. I'll discuss this in a different thread.
-Autumn Johnson's newest NCAA Bracketology still has USD as a 12-seed. So we probably shouldn't keep our hopes up that Charlie's 9-seed prediction is set in stone. Assuming we win out, we are probably looking at anywhere from 8 to 13. Maybe 10 or 11 most likely? Who really knows? According to the poll in the other thread, many would prefer a seed lower than 9 anyway, so... Just win, baby.
- in our opponents' NET ranking matrix, Creighton has overtaken OU in NET rank, and USD/SDSU seem to flip/flop every week. Other than that, most of the rankings have stabilized.
Feel free to scroll back up to the first post. It's interesting to see the trend lines of all these rankings. Make your own conclusions based on the data, but I really like the NET system for the outcomes we are seeing for the Summit League (at least on the women's side). In the future, maybe they will try to tweak it to advantage power conferences more, but I like it right now.
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yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 573
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Post by yote18 on Feb 25, 2022 11:33:16 GMT -6
Crème’s updated bracketology has the summit as a two bid league. USD stays at a 9 as an at large and SDSU moves in as the AQ as an 11. While his bracket is far from the final product, this is a very encouraging sign for the Yotes.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 25, 2022 12:27:32 GMT -6
Crème’s updated bracketology has the summit as a two bid league. USD stays at a 9 as an at large and SDSU moves in as the AQ as an 11. While his bracket is far from the final product, this is a very encouraging sign for the Yotes. This is great! Too bad Charlie's bracketology has zero impact on the actual committee's decision, .... but I like it! My prediction is that we both get in, but both are in that 10-to-12 seed range. Which would be fine with me. Also, our NET is back up to #36 after the KC game (SDSU remains at #35) |
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 25, 2022 14:09:29 GMT -6
Obviously we're taking this with a grain of salt, but I'd rather be that 11 seed in Norman than the 9 with Stanford looming in the second round if we're looking at trying to get a couple wins.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 25, 2022 14:10:51 GMT -6
But no complaints with playing Kansas in the first round if that's how it shakes out.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 25, 2022 14:46:06 GMT -6
But no complaints with playing Kansas in the first round if that's how it shakes out. Yeah, who knows who the actual first round matchup will be? I just hope we don't get paired up with an under-seeded team like last-year's 6-seed Oregon, who ended up destroying 3-seed Georgia to get into the sweet 16. Or really, there are teams that we just don't match up with well from a personnel or style standpoint. A team that doesn't take care of the ball well would be a great matchup for us. |
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Post by gopheryote on Feb 25, 2022 16:30:18 GMT -6
Crème’s updated bracketology has the summit as a two bid league. USD stays at a 9 as an at large and SDSU moves in as the AQ as an 11. While his bracket is far from the final product, this is a very encouraging sign for the Yotes. I'm pretty sure Creme's bracket is a 'if the season ended today' bracketology. So it doesn't reflect that either the Yotes or SDSU will have another loss or Q1 win. It also seems to make it clear that he thinks the Yotes are in no matter what, and SDSU has to win SLT to get in. |
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 28, 2022 10:23:57 GMT -6
First post updated with lots of rankings.
Notable:
-both USD and SDSU are still getting votes in the Coaches Poll (as of last week). That's two straight weeks in the poll for both.
-Our "net efficiency" rose again, and ties the highest point this year at #15. The Jacks have improved this stat steadily over the last few weeks, and are now at a higher rank than the Yotes. This is why I think they have also overtaken us in the NET rank...
-NET rank stays steady at #36, Jacks increased to #34. Both of these rankings are outstanding for a mid-major, and at least by that one metric both schools are at-large worthy. Of course, we only have one Quad-one win (Creighton) and the Jacks have zero. That could be a problem.
-Charlie Creme has now had two straight bracketologies with USD a 9-seed (at-large) and SDSU as an 11-seed aq.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 28, 2022 10:30:19 GMT -6
Personally this is my guess for right now: I think USD is in. I think SDSU needs to win the SLT, but they could be on the bubble in a championship loss scenario. I also think a 9-seed is out-of-reach for either team.
1. With an SLT win: USD gets a 10-seed, Jacks on the bubble.
2. With a loss to the Jacks in the Championship game: both teams get an 11-seed.
3. If the Yotes lose prior to the championship, maybe on the bubble for an at-large? Jacks would possibly not survive an early loss.
Just a random educated guess...
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 2, 2022 12:17:21 GMT -6
latest CollegeInsider mid-major rankings has USD as #5 (just like their first rankings months ago), SDSU #7
latest Creme Bracketology keeps USD as a 9-seed, SDSU drops to a 12-seed aq
latest Autumn Johnson Bracketology switches 12-seed USD for 12-seed SDSU (no at-large)
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