|
|
Post by kiyoat on Jan 31, 2022 10:51:36 GMT -6
May as well get the discussion started early. We all know the deal. This is the main event. Likely the second of three meetings between the perennial #1 vs. #2 team. This is the de facto regular-season title match.
I'll add some stats stuff when I get a chance this week. For now let's start with predictions (I'll update them through the week)
Previous game: Yotes won 65-42
Predictions:
Yotes lose 60-64 (+4) Massey
Yotes lose 61-64 (+3) WN R-1
Yotes win 64-60 (-4) ELO
|
|
|
|
Post by GoYotes on Jan 31, 2022 11:16:24 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Jan 31, 2022 11:33:52 GMT -6
The last time these teams played, I did a major stats comparison (conference only). Looking at the current conference only stats, the Jacks have improved vastly from a defensive standpoint, and have improved some offensively, too.
They were giving up 60.8 PPG, now down to 55.1
They had a scoring margin of +15.5, now +23!
The stats are so similar between these two teams now (both are #1 and #2 in almost every category) that I'll just point out the stats where one or both teams are not in the top 3:
-USD defends the arc better, allowing just .271 shooting (#1) vs .318 for the Jacks (#5)
-SDSU hits more 3P shots, a conference-leading 8.2 a game. USD hits 7.0 (#5)
-both teams have improved FT shooting, from .754 to .811 for the Jacks (#1) and from .702 to .761 for the Yotes (#6)
-The Jacks lead the league in Rebounding margin at +8.1, The Yotes are average at +1.0 (#5). This is similar to the last time we met.
-Also similar to last time, the Yotes still have a large lead in turnover margin +9.27 (#1) vs the Jacks +2.91 (#2), although the Jacks have shown improvement there.
So, at the end of the day, the biggest change is the Jacks' improved scoring defense.
|
|
|
|
Post by gopheryote on Jan 31, 2022 12:40:24 GMT -6
It seems like the games this past weekend are a good measuring stick:
Yotes 78 NDSU 59
SDSU 76 NDSU 60
Yotes 88 UND 72
SDSU 75 UND 49
Sometimes a team needs some adversity to make a forward step and get dialed in. SDSU seems to have done that since the whopping in Vermillion. The Yotes... haven't really had any adversity. The UND game was as close as they have had to something that forces them to reflect deeply. Some of the tightening of scores (winning by less than 25) can be attributed to the other teams in the SL having the USD game circled - it is the game where they bring everything they have. Like NDSU in FB or what SDSU's WBB was a handful of years ago. (WIU is a good example - they left it all on the court in Vermillion, and looked so very dejected when the game was getting away from them (and then acted out), and didn't show up mentally in Brookings a few days later.)
So I guess the question is whether USD has this game circled? Can they use this game prep to get back on the roll they were prior to the first time they played? They will need to bring more energy than we have seen the past few games.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2022 14:04:41 GMT -6
It seems like the games this past weekend are a good measuring stick: Yotes 78 NDSU 59 SDSU 76 NDSU 60 Yotes 88 UND 72 SDSU 75 UND 49 Sometimes a team needs some adversity to make a forward step and get dialed in. SDSU seems to have done that since the whopping in Vermillion. The Yotes... haven't really had any adversity. The UND game was as close as they have had to something that forces them to reflect deeply. Some of the tightening of scores (winning by less than 25) can be attributed to the other teams in the SL having the USD game circled - it is the game where they bring everything they have. Like NDSU in FB or what SDSU's WBB was a handful of years ago. (WIU is a good example - they left it all on the court in Vermillion, and looked so very dejected when the game was getting away from them (and then acted out), and didn't show up mentally in Brookings a few days later.) So I guess the question is whether USD has this game circled? Can they use this game prep to get back on the roll they were prior to the first time they played? They will need to bring more energy than we have seen the past few games. I think a big reason for the Yotes success is that they don't look past anyone and don't focus on the next opponent until the last game is over. It helps to have a week to prepare for this game, for both teams. |
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Jan 31, 2022 15:03:15 GMT -6
I was going to look into that statistic myself, because I assumed it was nutty. I'm glad someone else beat me to it! Think about it. SDSU and USD over the last five years are: That's just crazy. |
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Jan 31, 2022 16:37:17 GMT -6
Jacks fans when any call goes against them....  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . Jacks fans whenever Sjerven gets called for a foul....   |
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Jan 31, 2022 18:11:49 GMT -6
weekly update from Coach P (I haven't listened, but I'll assume she talks about the Jacks game...)
|
|
|
|
Post by announcerbob on Feb 4, 2022 12:26:56 GMT -6
The Board is eerily quiet this week, which is really hard to believe!!! It will be an interesting Saturday!!! I do not make predictions on games I just hope for a good effort and good shooting from both the Yotes men's and women's teams tomorrow. To be honest, these games are not the ones that truly matter.
|
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Feb 4, 2022 12:40:19 GMT -6
Just updated the predictions. R-1 and ELO haven't changed, and Massey's point spread is the same, just shifted up one (they think we will score 60 instead of 59). Average the three predictions, and the Jacks are slightly favored (-1) at home tomorrow. Should be fun (if you are on the winning side)!
Go Yotes!
|
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Feb 4, 2022 12:52:09 GMT -6
To be honest, these games are not the ones that truly matter. For the men's game, I guess I agree as it relates to the SLT being the only games that matter to get into the dance. For the Women, I disagree. Yes, as it relates to seed, who cares. 1 or 2 are essentially the same this year (the rest of the league is pretty bad, and there isn't a far-and-away #3 team that scares me much). But if the Yotes win this game tomorrow, we stand a decent shot (IMHO) at earning an at-large. So it matters. But beyond all of that, these games absolutely matter for many other reasons. Regular season title, bragging rights, Local perception, recruiting advantage for regional kids, some fans don't care about any other game on the schedule, so future ticket sales are affected. And even if they don't say it, the athletes and coaches want to win this just as badly as the fans want them to. It goes way beyond the NCAA and conference titles. It's a true rivalry in every sense. It matters. |
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Feb 4, 2022 12:55:05 GMT -6
Jacks' weekly update vid. Again, I haven't watched it yet, but I assume there is some mention of tomorrow's game...
|
|
|
|
Post by GoYotes on Feb 4, 2022 12:57:10 GMT -6
Hope we see some of this tomorrow
|
|
|
|
Post by announcerbob on Feb 4, 2022 12:57:13 GMT -6
I would be interested to know which of the prediction methods you included is the most accurate!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Feb 4, 2022 13:44:41 GMT -6
I would be interested to know which of the prediction methods you included is the most accurate!!! For a while it was ELO every time. Lately with a little lower offensive output Massey has been. So I hope we can put up some points! |
|
