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Post by sdyotefan on Nov 3, 2023 19:43:43 GMT -6
Thanks Kiyoat for your continued excellent analysis! Winning out would be great! Our family, including grandkids, will be in the Dome for the match up against ND then that night in the SCSC against NDSU to cheer both Coyote teams to victories!!
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 3, 2023 22:25:58 GMT -6
Thanks Kiyoat for your continued excellent analysis! Winning out would be great! Our family, including grandkids, will be in the Dome for the match up against ND then that night in the SCSC against NDSU to cheer both Coyote teams to victories!! Thanks man. It’s been a season like nothing recent. I love how many Summit teams have drawn fans this year! I’ll revisit the numbers after the season. Good job getting others excited about Coyote volleyball
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Post by gopheryote on Nov 4, 2023 5:05:24 GMT -6
Speaking of fans - has attendance at the other schools picked up since their team is in a legit conference title race? Curious if things are catching on more broadly?
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 4, 2023 6:54:40 GMT -6
Speaking of fans - has attendance at the other schools picked up since their team is in a legit conference title race? Curious if things are catching on more broadly? Yes for Omaha and the Yotes. I’m pretty sure NDSU and SDSU are marginally better too. ORU is better on paper, but they don’t pass the eye test. Last I looked, Denver was still at the bottom. Just not a good VB fan base. Same with KC. UND is down, but that’s to be expected. They have a lot of potential when the team is getting wins. I’ll look a little closer when I get a chance.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 6, 2023 11:53:10 GMT -6
Summit League Weekly (Nov 6)Standings: # | team | w/l | overall | (pr) | games left | 1 | Omaha^ | 11-3 | 12-12 | (1T) | @ Den, SDS | 2 | Denver^ | 10-4 | 11-11 | (1T) | Oma, ORU | 3T | Kansas City^ | 9-4 | 18-7 | (3) | @ NDS, @ UND, UST | 3T | South Dakota^ | 9-4 | 15-9 | (5) | ORU, NDS, @ SDS | 3T | NDSU^ | 9-4 | 17-7 | (4) | KC, @ USD, @ UND | . |
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| 6 | SDSU | 6-7 | 8-17 | (6) | UND, @ Oma, USD | . |
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| 7 | North Dakota | 3-10 | 6-19 | (7) | @ SDS, KC, NDS | 8 | St Thomas ~ | 2-12 | 6-19 | (8) | @ ORU, @ KC | 9 | Oral Roberts ~ | 1-12 | 3-22 | (9) | @ USD, UST, @ Den |
$ = clinched championship ^^ = clinched BYE ^ = clinched SL Tourney ~ = eliminated from SLTRankings team | RPI* | (pr) |
| South Dakota | 123 | (108) | \/ | Omaha | 129 | (128) |
| Kansas City | 157 | (139) | \/ | NDSU | 174 | (222) | ^^ | Denver | 180 | (210) | \/ | . |
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| SDSU | 285 | (311) | ^^ | St Thomas | 294 | (284) |
| North Dakota | 297 | (265) | \/ | Oral Roberts | 321 | (314) |
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*NCAA RPI Individual Stats Leaders (sorry, skipping updating this section this week...) Comments:Many questions have been answered, but many remain: with only two (or three) matches remaining, there are still Five Teams in the running for a regular-season title! Although all of those five have clinched a spot in the Summit League Tournament, not much else is nailed down... upsets/ big matches:#1T Omaha beat #3 Kansas City in 4 sets #3 Kansas City beat #1T Denver in 5 sets Forecast:For Omaha: The Mavs are the only team who completely control their own destiny to win their second regular-season title in three years. If they beat Denver on the road, and the Jacks at home, they are champs at 13-3. And that's the only simple scenario left. The Mavs can also win in an insanely complex two-team tie-breaker against Denver, involving the records of every team in the conference... IF the Mavs lose to Denver, then beat the Jacks, and Denver also beats Oral Roberts (likely), Omaha/Denver would be in a 12-4 tie. The tie-breaker would be as follows: 1. Head-to-Head: split series between Omaha and Denver2. Compare records against all conference opponents, one-by-one in order of conference finish. When they reach an opponent that one of the tied teams has a better record, they win: Denver and Omaha would have identical records against all conference opponents3. Compare RPI: Omaha has the higher RPINow, if you thought THAT was complex, ... keep in mind that the two-way tiebreaker could easily turn into a 3-way, or 4-way tiebreaker if any of the three teams currently 9-4 (KC, USD, NDSU) win all three of their final games to finish 12-4.... No, I won't repeat myself. Just read it again. And here's one more thing about Omaha: the Mavs still haven't secured a top-two seed (first round BYE). They could still end up with six losses which would put them somewhere in the 3-5 seed range. Strange, right? For Denver: The Pios have a singular path to a 1-seed and 7th regular-season title. They need to win their final 2 matches, and have Omaha lose out. It's not THAT far-fetched, but the Jacks would have to upset the Mavs. Otherwise, they could finish anywhere from 2-5, just like Omaha. Of note: The Midcontinent/Summit has only had a 4-loss champion once before, in 2010.For KC/ USD/ NDSU: These three teams are currently tied for 3rd at 9-4, are 1.5 games back from the lead, and all have three matches left. There are a ton of different scenarios for these teams, but any of them would have to win out, and have Omaha and Denver to stumble to be in consideration for a title. Interestingly, the SDSU @ Omaha match is critical for all of these teams. As far as tie-breakers go: 1. KC has already beaten USD twice.2. NDSU will still be playing USD and KC. 3. All three of these teams have split the series with both Omaha and Denver. 4. The RPI ranking COULD very easily come into play, which now favors USD over Omaha over KC over Denver over NDSU...For SDSU: Has virtually locked down the final 6-seed in the SLT. Would have to lose out and have North Dakota win out to miss out on the Conference tournament. North Dakota would then win a tie-breaker due to a hypothetical win over NDSU. This team could play a potentially catastrophic "spoiler" role... both during the regular season, and in the SLT....they've done it before. For UND: Could still finish anywhere from 6th to 8th. As mentioned before, they could win a tie with SDSU for 6th, or they can still lose a tie with St. Thomas to drop to 8th. For St Thomas: Could still finish anywhere from 7th to 9th (last). For Oral Roberts: Could still finish anywhere from 8th to 9th (last).
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 6, 2023 12:05:11 GMT -6
So who do we root for? The Coyotes, of course! We need to win out to either have a (long shot) chance at a regular season title, or even to win a tiebreaker to get the first-round BYE.
Also:
1. We Need Omaha to lose at least once, either to Denver or SDSU. Better if they lose both. 2. ORU beating Denver would knock them out of title contention, and likely knock them out of BYE contention. It's not likely, but we want it to happen. 3. NDSU beating KC would take them out of title contention, and likely knock them out of BYE contention. 4. We will lose any tie with Omaha, Denver, or KC - this is because of the two losses to KC on our record. 5. We will win a tie with NDSU if we beat them a second time. 6. There are probably other things I'm not thinking of.
Our most likely landing spot is a tie for 2nd, and a 3-seed, which would set up an instant-rematch with the Jacks. Nothing will be easy, but with the Cardiac Coyotes, anything is possible!
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 8, 2023 16:37:55 GMT -6
Cheer for the Pios tonight (7PM): TV linkSTATS link
A Denver win is a win for CHAOS! (in the conference)
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 8, 2023 20:12:44 GMT -6
Pios up 2 sets to 0!
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 8, 2023 21:09:25 GMT -6
5th set alert!!!! Omaha trying for a reverse sweep
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 8, 2023 22:56:25 GMT -6
Pios win! The Yotes’ hopes are still alive!
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 9, 2023 9:27:05 GMT -6
OK, so I may have royally messed up the projections to break ties, but I have a better understanding of it now.... After Head-2-Head records they go to "total sets won" in the H2H, then "point differential" in the H2H.... So I can't imagine that most ties go beyond that, looking at records against opponents. I'll do some more projections..............
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 9, 2023 10:37:36 GMT -6
Barring any upsets between the top-5 and the bottom-4 (which has happened multiple times this year).... it now comes down to two key matches: 1. Kansas City at NDSU (Thursday) Massey predicts a 3-1 Bison win2. NDSU at South Dakota (Saturday) Massey predicts a 3-1 Yote winHere are four outcomes based on those matches (and the correct tie procedure): NDSU and USD win: (3 champs) rank | seed | team | record | tiebreak | 1T | 1 | Omaha | 12-4 | 10 sets won | 1T
| 2 | South Dakota | 12-4
| 9 sets won | 1T
| 3 | Denver | 12-4
| 6 sets won | 4T
| 4 | NDSU | 11-5 | 2 match wins | 4T | 5 | Kansas City | 11-5 | 0 match wins |
NDSU and NDSU win: (3 champs) rank | seed | team | record | tiebreak | 1T | 1 | Omaha | 12-4 | 9 sets won | 1T
| 2 | NDSU | 12-4
| 8 sets won | 1T
| 3 | Denver | 12-4
| 6 sets won | 4T
| 4 | Kansas City | 11-5 | 2 match wins | 4T | 5 | South Dakota | 11-5 | 0 match wins |
KC and USD win: (4 champs) rank | seed | team | record | tie1 | tie2 | 1T | 1 | Kansas City | 12-4 | 4-2 record | | 1T
| 2 | Omaha | 12-4
| 3-3 record | 5 sets | 1T
| 3 | Denver | 12-4
| 3-3 record | 3 sets | 1T
| 4 | South Dakota | 12-4 | 2-4 record |
| 4T | 5 | NDSU | 11-5 | |
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KC and NDSU win: (3 champs) rank | seed | team | record | tiebreak | 1T | 1 | Omaha | 12-4 | 10 sets won | 1T
| 2 | Kansas City | 12-4
| 9 sets won | 1T
| 3 | Denver | 12-4
| 8 sets won | 4T
| 4 | NDSU | 11-5 | 5 sets won | 4T | 5 | South Dakota | 11-5 | 0-5 sets won* |
* will depend on match outcome WAIT, THERE'S A HUGE GRAIN OF SALT.....1. These 4 outcomes assume no upsets from bottom-4 teams. 2. Any of these teams can still win or lose the season championship based on upsets. 3. There still could be a single, 2-team, 3-team, 4-team or even 5-team tie at the top. Yes, I'm finished (for now).... until after tonight's three matches....
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 9, 2023 11:08:35 GMT -6
Who to root for:
Thursday (tonight): South Dakota over ORU (6PM) NDSU over KC (7PM)
Saturday: SDSU over Omaha (noon) North Dakota over KC (1PM) South Dakota over NDSU (4PM)
Tuesday: South Dakota over SDSU (7PM) North Dakota over NDSU (7PM)
Wednesday: St Thomas over KC (7PM) Oral Roberts over Denver (7PM)
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 9, 2023 21:49:25 GMT -6
Well, the Yotes won (yay!) ... and the Bison got swept (boo!) ... and the Jacks locked in a 6-seed (whatever)
on to Saturday
Although the Bison loss wasn't ideal for tiebreaker scenarios... The Yotes are in control of our own destiny, at least in terms of a regular-season title share. Win out, and we get a share. And that's a good goal.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 13, 2023 10:02:34 GMT -6
Summit League Weekly (Nov 13) - -The Final Update---
Standings:# | team | w/l | overall | games left | 1 | Omaha^^$ | 12-4 | 13-13 | | 2T | Kansas City^ | 11-4 | 20-7 | St Thomas | 2T | Denver^ | 11-4 | 12-11 | Oral Roberts | 2T | South Dakota^ | 11-4 | 17-9 | @ SDSU | . |
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| 3T | NDSU^ | 9-6 | 17-9 | @ North Dak | . |
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| 6 | SDSU^ | 7-8 | 9-18 | South Dak | . |
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| 7 | North Dakota ~ | 3-12 | 6-21 | NDSU | 8 | St Thomas ~ | 3-12 | 7-19 | Kansas City | 9 | Oral Roberts ~ | 1-14 | 3-24 | @ Denver |
$ = clinched championship ^^ = clinched BYE ^ = clinched SL Tourney ~ = eliminated from SLT
Rankingsteam | RPI* | (pr) |
| South Dakota | 111 | (123) | ^ | Omaha | 139 | (129) | \/ | Kansas City | 148 | (157) | ^ | Denver | 172 | (180) |
| NDSU | 180 | (174) |
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| SDSU | 287 | (285) |
| St Thomas | 302 | (294) |
| North Dakota | 304 | (297) |
| Oral Roberts | 325 | (321) |
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*NCAA RPI Comments:Well, here it is: The Final Update (cue the synthesizer)... What a wild Summit season. unlike any other in the history of the conference. Omaha has now clinched a share of the title in their final regular-season match, finishing 12-4. We will have a 4-loss regular-season champion for only the second time in conference history, and the first since the 2010 co-champions NDSU and Fort Wayne (13 years ago). Not only that, but: THERE ARE STILL THREE MORE TEAMS THAT CAN JOIN OMAHA AS CO-CHAMPIONS! Two teams earning co-championships has happened five times in the Summit/Midcontinent conference (excluding 1994-1997 when there were divisions). But a three-way or four-way tie at the top is unprecedented! Not only that, but the odds of it happening are very very good, because of the final matches involved (see below) Massey Odds of earning a share of the title:Omaha ........100% Kansas City ...97% Denver .........98% South Dakota.87% NDSU @ North Dakota is an interesting match for rivalry reasons, but this year it will not impact seeding. Projections:So I still do not know if the Summit does tie-breakers in VB like other conferences, but I'll have to make some assumptions until I hear otherwise. If St Thomas or Oral Roberts somehow upset KC or Denver, respectively, that would take those teams out of the title race. The odds of at least one of those things happening is 5% according to Massey (3% + 2%). So the 13% chance that the Jacks beat the Yotes is the main variable left (I'm sure the actual odds are higher than that, although I hope not). South Dakota beats SDSU:rnk | seed | team | w/l | 4-way tie | 2-way tie | 1T | 1 | Kansas City$* | 12-4 | 4-2 record |
| 1T | 2 | Omaha$ | 12-4 | 3-3 record | 5 sets won | 1T | 3 | Denver$ | 12-4 | 3-3 record | 3 sets won | 1T | 4 | South Dakota$ | 12-4 | 2-4 record |
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$ Summit Champions * will host the SLT in 2024 SDSU beats South Dakota:rnk | seed | team | w/l | 3-way tie | 1T | 1 | Omaha$* | 12-4 | 10 sets won | 1T | 2 | Kansas City$ | 12-4 | 9 sets won | 1T | 3 | Denver$ | 12-4 | 8 sets won | 2 | 4 | South Dakota | 11-5 | |
$ Summit Champions * will host the SLT in 2024 Unless I'm mistaken, adding USD to the group of champions hands the 1-seed to Kansas City over Omaha, due to head-to-head records and the Yotes' two losses to the Roos? In a 4-way comparison of sets won, USD actually takes the 2-seed below Omaha.... Honestly, I've been wrong before, so.... ? But what a fittingly ambiguous ending, right?
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