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Post by captaincoyote on Jul 30, 2023 10:18:47 GMT -6
Fall camp starts this week! How’s everyone feeling about this upcoming season?
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obc
Senior Member
Posts: 781
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Post by obc on Jul 30, 2023 11:05:28 GMT -6
I would consider USD significant favorites against: St. Thomas, Lamar, Murray St., @indiana St., @wiu Play well and that is 5 wins.
I would consider USD significant underdogs against: @missouri, @ndsu, SDSU Not ruling out wins here, but these are the three most likely losses in my opinion.
Making the playoffs and having 7 or 8 wins will be decided by three games that are a toss up in my view: YSU, @siu, UND Win two of those three and that could leave USD with a 7-4 regular season record. That may be enough to get in the playoffs, but not a lock.
QB1 is solid and I expect a break out year after the experience he had last year. Depth in this group is unknown - transfers in at this position have promise and one at least is a true dual threat.
RBs - best group USD has had collectively at D1. Nate Thomas is special - having him back is an immediate lift to the team. Theis is solid. Mansaray has shown he can be very productive.
TEs - talented group - will the new OC actually use them more? I think so.
WRs - Top WR from last year transferred to UND. Carter Bell has an opportunity to be a top WR in the Valley. Need other WRs to emerge. Talent is there. New OC I believe will find a way to get the ball to our players in space.
OL - In 2021 this group gave up 31 sacks. In 2022 the unit gave up even more - 34. This group is under new leadership and needs to be better. Erbes and Lombard are all conference caliber OL if they play to their potential. Losing Jensen obviously hurts. There are some players in this unit that are in their third year and this is the year we will see if they can help the OL elevate as a unit.
New OC - I am very bullish on this hire. Those close to him believe he has an innovative football mind and will immediately improve the game plan, adjustments, and day to day coaching of the unit. I expect this unit to get back to avg 28-30 points a game in MVFC play this year. Last year the unit averaged 16.3 ppg.
Special teams: USD lost their top return man to UND in the portal. There is some speed on this roster from recent recruiting classes. Would not be surprised to see one of those young burners have a great year in this spot.
Kicker- Unknown
Punter - Unknown
Long snapper - new player replacing an all conference level player from last year.
Interior DL - Most depth this team has had in the D1 era. Depth will be there but can one of them emerge as an All MVFC level player? Nick Gaes if healthy can play at that level. Need a big year from him.
Edge - Webb is an All MVFC level talent. Reports are that he will be asked to do more this year in the defense. The depth at this position is unproven.
LB - this unit could be the top LB unit in the Valley. Can they stay healthy?
DBs - Harden could be the best corner in the Valley. Having him back and healthy can lock down the opponents top WR. There is good depth in this unit.
The biggest help to the defense this year may be having an improved offense. The USD defense was put in terrible positions last year too frequently.
This is the most favorable schedule USD has had in D1 since joining the MVFC. I expect a significant improvement in how USD plays this year. The Valley is loaded. 7-4 is my prediction, but this team could do even better if they continue to improve throughout the year and stay healthy.
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Post by sdyotefan on Jul 30, 2023 12:29:01 GMT -6
obc I really like your analysis!! I agree with 95%, which is more than I agree with my wife (just don't tell her)!
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bobo
Sophomore Member
Posts: 238
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Post by bobo on Jul 30, 2023 18:58:53 GMT -6
Pretty nice synopsis of the team and journey this fall. Couple players that have had high production left out or glazed over, but that’s ok. Really excited about the new offensive staff personnel. Truly think there’s gotta be some great ideas in attacking the top teams in the conference from Coach Davis’ time at SDSU and their success. Different personnel to work with, but the initial game plan ideas are there vs schemes.
Defensively, there is some nice talent at all 3 levels, with a couple of guys being in the mix as some of the top guys in the MVFC. Key is going to be depth at DL and DB. The defensive staff has done a nice job of growing up in the past couple years. Hope that trend continues.
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Post by captaincoyote on Jul 30, 2023 19:43:08 GMT -6
Thank you, OBC, for the great summary. I’ll have a somewhat thorough recap of the roster turnover later this week. Overall, I’m more confident in having a strong defense than offense. The offense will likely improve over the season, but we cannot afford for Bouman to miss any time and we badly need some WRs to step up.
5-6 is likely our floor and 8-3 is the ceiling. 7-4 is successful in my mind.
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Post by marco on Jul 30, 2023 21:08:57 GMT -6
OL is a key we have talent on offense . Having Nate back is big. Injuries are part of the game but if we could get Harden to play a full season he is that good we could win 7 and in the playoffs
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Post by Yotes on Jul 31, 2023 6:45:54 GMT -6
My amateur preview based strictly on what teams did last year:
@ Missouri - Went to a bowl game out of the SEC last year. Not the toughest FBS team we have played, maybe we get some entertainment value in the first half. St Thomas - Non-scholarship that went 10-1 last year, but lost their only game against a scholarship team (Southern Utah) by 31. This better not be close. Lamar - Went 1-10 out of the Southland last year. This also better be a win. @ NDSU - No one likes going to the wrong Dakota. Murray State - 2-9 out of the OVC last year. Seems like a truly awful addition to the MVFC. Better be a D Days blowout. Youngstown State - 7-4 (5-3 MVFC) last season including a win over USD that was 38-10 at halftime. If they are on pace for that kind of record again, these are the games we need to win consistently to show some progress. @ Indiana State - Finished 10th in the MVFC, only beating winless WIU. Road games were a nightmare last season. Gotta beat teams like this though. SDSU - Rivalry game in the Dome. Throw away your predictions. @ SIU - 5-6 (4-4 MVFC) last season including a loss in Vermillion on Dakota Days. SIU won 5 games in a row last season, then lost their final 4 games by 3, 1, 3, and 7. Could be a very dangerous team. UND - Playoff team last year. They've been pretty good since joining the MVFC, but also feels like they haven't won in Vermillion in ages. @ WIU - Winless last year, and utterly terrible the past 4 years or so. Please put these guys in the trash in their final MVFC game.
St Thomas, Lamar, Murray State, Indiana State, and WIU are games that should be guaranteed wins for a competent program. Lots of room to build from there.
If we field a team like we did in 2021 then it would be a guaranteed playoff berth and possibly a playoff seed. If we field a team like we did in 2022 then we are going 5-6 or 6-5 and will act like it is progress despite the significantly easier schedule, justifying the mystifying extension Bob received. Here's hoping the team is ready for the season this time.
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Post by yotefan02 on Jul 31, 2023 9:24:58 GMT -6
Did they ever announce the contract extension for Bob? I'm not trying to stir the pot or comment on his coaching ability just wondering what his contract status is.
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Post by geoffjellic on Jul 31, 2023 10:58:36 GMT -6
Thank you, OBC, for the great summary. I’ll have a somewhat thorough recap of the roster turnover later this week. Overall, I’m more confident in having a strong defense than offense. The offense will likely improve over the season, but we cannot afford for Bouman to miss any time and we badly need some WRs to step up. 5-6 is likely our floor and 8-3 is the ceiling. 7-4 is successful in my mind. They are going to have to make changes at WR … one of last years biggest debacles was having Martens and Bell splitting time at slot. They both need to be on the field at the same time. I know they are really high on Martens but Bell shouldn’t be watching half the game from the sidelines. During spring ball they had Bell outside a lot of the time so there could be a change there. Phelps was steady last year and there were a few newcomers at Spring ball that showed promise. But if they let Bell loose and if Martens is as good as the coaches say he is they should be fine at WR as long as they stay healthy
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bobo
Sophomore Member
Posts: 238
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Post by bobo on Jul 31, 2023 14:07:00 GMT -6
Well said, I have been saying this for the past couple of years. The Martens kid is a nice, smart WR who understands the game, not a game breaker by any means but knows how to get open so I agree that he needs to be on the field the majority of the time for sure. Play your best kids, not that hard of an idea. I think finally these offensive coaches have figured out that the Bell kid needs to be on the field 100% of the time and see at least 6-10 touches a game in the passing game plus any other touches in the punt return game. I'm telling you, he is always one touch away from a TD if given the opportunities, we saw that in 2021 in major spurts when he was splitting time with Vander Esch. I would not be surprised if you see him all over the place by design this fall. As for the other WRs, someone needs to step up to provide some depth and at least an outside threat. Hopefully, on of them can develop some consistency to earn some PT.
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Post by captaincoyote on Jul 31, 2023 20:08:08 GMT -6
I know the coaches were excited about Makai Lovett a couple of years ago, but he has been injured. If he can't break out, hopefully a couple redshirt freshmen or transfers can.
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Post by captaincoyote on Jul 31, 2023 21:00:52 GMT -6
I got nerdy and analyzed how our roster has changed from last year. Here’s an initial summary:
Graduates (14): We lost some significant contributors to graduation including Alex Jensen, Austin Goehring, Cameron Tisdale, Dalton Godfrey, Da'Raun McKinney, Eddie Ogamba, Isaiah McDaniels, Josh Manchigiah, Michael Scott, and Tre Thomas.
Outbound Transfers (25): Of our 25 outbound transfers, only 4 were major contributors (Wesley Eliodor, Shomari Lawrence, Tre Jackson, and Carson Camp). Out of those 4, Camp had already lost his starting role. It would have also been nice for Cole Stenstrom to stick around.
Inbound Transfers (12): I see a lot of potential in this group. Parker Fryer led Northwestern College with 120 tackles as the GPAC Defensive Player of the Year and a NAIA First Team All-American. He should start alongside Mogensen and Hillis as an instant contributor. Cannon Blauser also had 86 tackles for Ohio University in 2021. Tristan Michaud provides height to the WR as a 6’6” transfer from Iowa State. Kaden Weatherby is a nice-sized tackle who redshirted last year at Texas Tech. Lastly, Mosai Newson is 300+ pound interior DL who saw the field some at Nebraska.
With 27 recruits, we will have 11 fewer FR and R-FR, but also just 6 seniors, giving us a pretty middle-heavy roster age wise.
Last year’s DL had 6 players weighing 270+, but only 1 guy listed as 300+. This season, we have 8 D-lineman weighing 270+ with 4 being 300+.
Finally, our average OL has grown from 6’5” 299 lbs to 6’5” 308 lbs.
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Post by Yote 53 on Aug 1, 2023 8:42:03 GMT -6
39 out and 39 in. Just massive roster turnover these days in CFB from year to year. This is what makes season predictions so difficult. It's great in that the turnover can allow you to become good quickly but the downside is the transfer portal can also decimate a solid roster.
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Post by geoffjellic on Aug 1, 2023 15:04:22 GMT -6
39 out and 39 in. Just massive roster turnover these days in CFB from year to year. This is what makes season predictions so difficult. It's great in that the turnover can allow you to become good quickly but the downside is the transfer portal can also decimate a solid roster. Interesting. USD was certainly more cut throat after spring ball . I heard players were being told to consider the portal, you don’t fit the program, and just dismissed from the team after spring ball which doesn’t give them a ton of time to find a new team with the May 1st deadline.. Clearly the new staff coming in (particularly on the offense) have a vision of what they want. 39 in and 39 out is not a stat you want to see from afar. I guess you’re just hoping for upgrades but the early transfer portals are typically the better players. I guess time will tell.
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Post by Yote 53 on Aug 1, 2023 15:12:13 GMT -6
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