@ St Thomas

[sdyotefan]

Challenging game at the Tommies home court. They were up by 7 at half at state but lost by 20 at end of game. So they have some consistency issues.

The Lady Yotes need improvement in the two same areas: Take care of the basketball and play solid D. In both cases not for just a half but the WHOLE game! They need to play with chip on their shoulders, with grit and determination!!

GO YOTES!!

[yote18]

Tommies have some consistency issues but I think the sdsu game was more sdsu just doing what sdsu does. AJ will always have the jacks ready for adjustments at half.

Gonna be a tough game they just beat ORU on a buzzer beater at home and have gotten a lot of confidence and momentum going this season. I expect this game to be closer but Yotes fall to Tommies final score 77-74, Grace scores 27 and gets 11 rebounds. Total Yote turnovers are 22

[yotewannabe]

I think we have consistency issues. I think we have good offensive players but not so much defensive players. Athleticism also eludes us at a number of positions. And something is just missing. Can’t put my finger on it. I hate this feeling but can’t shake it. Trying to be optimistic but I feel some serious changes may need to be made. Also I’m hoping by saying this out loud I reverse jinx us and we go 2-0 these next two games. 😬

[kiyoat]

for whatever this is worth (not much)  Here are some game predictions:

Yotes win 71-64 (-7) Massey
Yotes win 68-63 (-5) WN

I watched the first quarter of the UST @ SDSU game on replay.  The Tommie's lack size, but are quick and play disciplined team ball.  Well-coached, is what I would call them.  Really good passing.  They looked like they knew exactly what they wanted to accomplish, and how to get there.  They walled-off the paint really well on defense, and forced the Jacks to settle for perimeter shooting and late-clock forced shots.  Without watching the rest of the game, I'll assume Coach AJ made some adjustments and/or the size and athleticism of the Jacks wore the Tommies down.

I have no idea what to expect with this game, other than poor defense from the Yotes.  It's possible this could turn into a shoot-out?  On defense we can't over-pursue or they will eat our lunch.

These are the two most turnover-prone teams in the Summit, with UST averaging 18.4 and USD 17.1, and both teams also leading in turnovers in league play, tying with 19.3 turnovers per contest.

[yote18]

Maybe it’s been explained before but how are the Massey and WN odds/predictions determined? Cause it seems like they have predicted us to win the last several games by decent margins.

[90yote]

Jan 18, 2024 16:31:18 GMT -6 yote18 said:

Maybe it’s been explained before but how are the Massey and WN odds/predictions determined? Cause it seems like they have predicted us to win the last several games by decent margins.

Massey is just another analytics website (like kenpom) that rates teams based on prior games. Betting lines aren't as commonly known for women's games but when they are published they tend to mirror the projections from Massey (and likely other sites). I like looking at them, particularly in the non-conference season.

At the start of conference season, they Yotes were projected to be favored in all but two conference games (you can guess which ones). And, surprisingly enough, they still are. However, this is two straight years where we seem to be overrated by these systems. I've wondered if it's because of the NAIA games, but all teams are playing multiple games against lower division teams, particularly after Western Illinois bailed. So I don't know what the reason is, but the delta between the SDSU and USD rankings has increased since conference play began. As of today, they would be 11-point underdogs on Saturday. I'd probably give the points there.

[90yote]

I guess maybe I didn't answer your direct question. I don't think they publish their complete formula, but it's probably some combination of w/l record, strength of victory, margin of victory, net offensive and defensive ratings, etc.

[kiyoat]

Jan 18, 2024 17:05:07 GMT -6 90yote said:

Jan 18, 2024 16:31:18 GMT -6 yote18 said:

Maybe it’s been explained before but how are the Massey and WN odds/predictions determined? Cause it seems like they have predicted us to win the last several games by decent margins.

Massey is just another analytics website (like kenpom) that rates teams based on prior games. Betting lines aren't as commonly known for women's games but when they are published they tend to mirror the projections from Massey (and likely other sites). I like looking at them, particularly in the non-conference season.

At the start of conference season, they Yotes were projected to be favored in all but two conference games (you can guess which ones). And, surprisingly enough, they still are. However, this is two straight years where we seem to be overrated by these systems. I've wondered if it's because of the NAIA games, but all teams are playing multiple games against lower division teams, particularly after Western Illinois bailed. So I don't know what the reason is, but the delta between the SDSU and USD rankings has increased since conference play began. As of today, they would be 11-point underdogs on Saturday. I'd probably give the points there.

I think it's just the difference between what the stats tell you vs what your eyes tell you.  Despite the fact that we as fans see a team that can't seem to figure out how to play defense, the stats we have put up tell a different story.  Some big offensive outputs probably skew the numbers, too.

Also, most BB statistics are centered around offensive performance.  Deflections that don't end up being steals or blocks still greatly affect the game, despite never appearing on a stat sheet.  There is no stat for drawing a charge.  There is no stat for going after a loose ball, unless it results in a steal.  Causing a jump ball only counts if it also turns into a turnover (half the time).  hounding a player into a poor shot doesn't count as anything on the stat sheet.  etc.  My point is that teams with good offense often look better than they really are on the stat sheet.

[90yote]

Agreed, but I will nitpick that most of those things would impact net ratings. 🙂

But your larger point is correct. Offensive skill is the most recognizable skill in basketball. But who on this team that is in the rotation would you consider to be quite athletic with length? Grace, obviously. Who else? Maybe NAA, but her size hurts.

A theory I have is that when this team is matched up against a team without a lot of athleticism, their skill carries the day. But that skill gets muted to some degree by athletic teams.

Teams of the past weren't P5 athletic, but they were underrated in that aspect. Duffy would often beat defenders down the floor, even with a dribble. And Taylor Frederick would beat virtually every post player down the floor her last couple of years. Not to mention #34 and her obvious strengths.

Hopefully these two freshmen coming in will give them some length, though I'm not expecting an immediate impact, especially with one coming off an ACL tear.

[marco]

Just hard to watch

[marco]

Wow that was our best quarter of the year nice comeback . hope this gets us going

[yotenation]

It's a good freaking night to be a Coyote. Watched both the men's and women's games at the same time as best I could (thanks mirrored scheduling!)

In terms of the women's game, that was a gritty win. Didn't play all that well for good portions of the game but in the fourth quarter they dug deep and battled back and found a way to win. Great win that could pay dividends down the road in terms of this team finding more confidence and believing in themselves.

In her interview with Jay Elsen this week, Kayla talked about how she wants her players to understand the difference between playing hard and competing. That 4th quarter - THAT was competing. Great job, ladies.

[90yote]

Nice comeback with a strong 4Q and some assiatance from a tardy clock operator. 🤣

Good play though, and well-executed.

Might get ugly Saturday night, but good to see them get an exciting win.

Mazurek and Duffney played a lot more tonight, and they started the 2nd half.

[hoopsmom]

We were at the game tonight, and the gym was electric. St. Thomas had a lot of fans, more than I remember from the past two years. But we had quite a few as well. It was FUN!!!

We have a lot of talent on this team, albeit a little inexperienced. We have girls that enjoy playing the game of basketball with each other. We also have athleticism, and heart, and desire. With every game, I see improvements in communication and teamwork - reading the opponents passes, setting screens, calling out switches. What we need is the one thing that snaps into place and pulls them all together. Call it chemistry, mentality, or an undefinable something. I believe that once they find it, whatever it is, this team will be very good.

[sdyotefan]

Great job of not panicking when down 11 in the 4th!

As hoopsmom mentioned, this team has a lot of talent especially offensively and the D was improved tonight! The Lady Yote bench out scored St Thomas 26 to 5!!

Great pass and cut to the basket at the end for the win!!

GO YOTES!!!