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Post by kiyoat on Feb 22, 2018 15:24:48 GMT -6
Don't forget that State not only schedules those tougher games but wins some as well. That will have the largest bearing on their higher RPI. Actually that's not true. The RPI just aggregates win-loss records. It doesn't reward or penalize you for winning or losing to specific teams. You can swap any win for any loss on your schedule and it would score the same. The thing that matters is the relative strength of schedule. That's why it sucks so much. I mean, in isolation, it's better to win than lose a game. But to the RPI every win and every loss are equal (Except they weight home and away wins differently). The important thing is to just schedule as tough as you can, and try to lose as few as possible. Beating Oklahoma on the road gives the same score as beating Fort Wayne on the road, assuming the schedule is the same. The selection committee, on the other hand, often looks at "good wins" or "bad losses" but it doesn't affect your RPI score directly. They are looking at it subjectively. That's also why, subjectively, losing to USD three times just looks bad for them.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2018 12:05:41 GMT -6
Using Massey's numbers, there are 16 conferences with their top ranked team ranked below the Yotes (#53). This means even with no upsets in the other conferences even #40 is on the bubble. I would be very surprised if there is an at-large team from the Summit, no matter what happens in the SLT.
American West - Maine #102 Atlantic Sun - FGCU #63 Big Sky - Northern Colorado #78 Big South - Liberty #150 Big West - UC Davis #67 Colonial - Drexel #62 Conference USA - Western Kentucky #58 Mid-Eastern - Bethune-Cookman #134 Missouri Valley - Drake #65 Mountain West - Wyoming #94 Northeast - St Francis #160 Patriot League - American #79 Southland - Lamar #123 Southwestern - Southern U #239 Sun Belt - Texas State #151 WAC - CS Bakersfield #185
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 24, 2018 13:34:59 GMT -6
^ solid research, Timber!
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Post by elcoyote on Feb 24, 2018 13:44:27 GMT -6
Using Massey's numbers, there are 16 conferences with their top ranked team ranked below the Yotes (#53). This means even with no upsets in the other conferences even #40 is on the bubble. I would be very surprised if there is an at-large team from the Summit, no matter what happens in the SLT. American West - Maine #102 Atlantic Sun - FGCU #63 Big Sky - Northern Colorado #78 Big South - Liberty #150 Big West - UC Davis #67 Colonial - Drexel #62 Conference USA - Western Kentucky #58 Mid-Eastern - Bethune-Cookman #134 Missouri Valley - Drake #65 Mountain West - Wyoming #94 Northeast - St Francis #160 Patriot League - American #79 Southland - Lamar #123 Southwestern - Southern U #239 Sun Belt - Texas State #151 WAC - CS Bakersfield #185 Very good stuff!
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Post by gopheryote on Mar 2, 2018 6:43:37 GMT -6
Does WBB only use the traditional RPI metrics for seeding? Charlie Crème has the Yotes as a 13 seed, but we want to be 12 or higher to avoid playing a road game in round 1. MBB is using a new 'quadrants' method and infusing more KenPom-like rankings. Does anyone know if that is also happening with WBB?
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 2, 2018 7:49:38 GMT -6
Does WBB only use the traditional RPI metrics for seeding? Charlie Crème has the Yotes as a 13 seed, but we want to be 12 or higher to avoid playing a road game in round 1. MBB is using a new 'quadrants' method and infusing more KenPom-like rankings. Does anyone know if that is also happening with WBB? I couldn't find a source on it, but one thing I DO know is that the most frequently-mentioned advanced metrics systems (KenPom and Sagarin) do not have women's rankings (officially). There is a site that produces Sagarin-ratings for the women, but it is not affiliated with Jeff Sagarin. Massey is the only one I know of that is somewhat well-known that ranks women. As far as the quadrants, to me, that's just putting lipstick on a pig. The "quadrants" don't change the basic RPI formula, it just weights home vs. away games in their "top ten" or "top 50" wins lists that they look at. Using KenPom and Sagarin more prominently would have a bigger impact IMO. For some reason they just can't quit the RPI....
*insert broke-back mountain gif here*
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 7, 2018 11:49:27 GMT -6
rankings as of Mar 7 (after SLT)
Massey 32 SDSU 54 USD 89 WIU
163 ORU 182 Denver\/
259 Omaha 301 NDSU 337 Ft Wayne
RPI 27 SDSU 60 USD 99 WIU^
172 ORU^ 177 Denver
244 Omaha 284 NDSU 325 Ft. Wayne
SDSU gets a moderate bump of 3 or 4 spots, USD drops a couple. The rest is just rearranging the chairs on the Titanic. My guess:
SDSU #11 seed in the NCAA (according to Charlie Creme) USD in the "top tier" of the WNIT (they split the field into three tiers for 1st round match-ups) WIU in the "middle tier" of the WNIT ORU/Denver in the WBI
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Post by goyotes24 on Mar 7, 2018 11:55:34 GMT -6
Correct me if I am wrong, but it appears Nebraska may get a bid because USD didn't win their conference tourney. How is that for some irony (if true)?
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 7, 2018 12:26:45 GMT -6
Correct me if I am wrong, but it appears Nebraska may get a bid because USD didn't win their conference tourney. How is that for some irony (if true)? It certainly looks that way. Although, being firmly on the bubble, they might end up being in the WNIT, too. What would REALLY be ironic would be playing them in the WNIT! If they drop, their RPI is close to ours at 59/60, so we would both be "tier 1" teams matched up with "tier 3" teams in the first round. I could see geography playing a factor in a later match-up, though.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 9, 2018 12:05:10 GMT -6
Does WBB only use the traditional RPI metrics for seeding? Charlie Crème has the Yotes as a 13 seed, but we want to be 12 or higher to avoid playing a road game in round 1. MBB is using a new 'quadrants' method and infusing more KenPom-like rankings. Does anyone know if that is also happening with WBB? So, I still don't know what they use for the NCAA, but I did find this in the WNIT at-large selection procedure: So it looks like they average: Massey Sagarin RPI RealtimeRPI (redundant!) Moore (new to me) + at least one more?
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