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Post by gopheryote on Jan 7, 2019 13:40:11 GMT -6
Charlie C after the SDSU game:
Charlie when asked how the DEN loss and SDSU win affects at-large status:
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Post by Yotes on Jan 7, 2019 22:06:36 GMT -6
I don't know we can afford another loss if we are to have an at-large bid as an option. Mid-major teams just don't get those in the women's game unless they have an exemplary season. Looking at the past few tourneys is bleak when seeking out mid-majors who did get an at-large.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 8, 2019 6:19:40 GMT -6
I don't know we can afford another loss if we are to have an at-large bid as an option. Mid-major teams just don't get those in the women's game unless they have an exemplary season. Looking at the past few tourneys is bleak when seeking out mid-majors who did get an at-large. Yeah, I read an article recently (may have been by a Nebraska writer last year, concerning Amy’s chances of getting into the dance IIRC) But the author did a study of the RPI of women’s bubble teams. They found that for Power-5(6) teams the line is between #40 and #50 usually, but for mid-majors the bar is higher, more like #35-40. Based on that and what our projected RPI shows, if USD gets one more loss we will be “toeing the line” at around #37. SDSU winning out puts them in the same spot. This is all dependent upon our opponents continuing to win/lose as expected, as well. Lots of moving parts. It’s tough as a mid-major. You basically have to be perfect, like that football movie...
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Post by coyoteglory on Jan 8, 2019 7:30:46 GMT -6
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Post by coyoteglory on Jan 8, 2019 8:25:53 GMT -6
After reading this, I think we get two shots at the NCAA tournament. If we win out in the regular season (including beating SDSU at Frost) or if we win the Summit League Championship. I don't think we get in, even if we only lose two more games, both to SDSU at Frost and at SLT game.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 8, 2019 8:31:10 GMT -6
Yep, that's the one. Thanks for finding that. A couple of other take-aways from that article are that the Women's selection comittee doesn't use the quadrant system for evaluating good win/bad loss. That's too bad. Also, there have been mid-majors left out with RPI's of as high as #29 and 30, although that is more the exception than the rule. I think the cutoff for mid-majors is closer to #35-40 most years. The number of at-larges available, of course, is dependent on how many of the mid-major tournaments go. One more moving part to watch...
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 8, 2019 8:59:34 GMT -6
Dec 27 Update: RPI---------(Massey)-[SOS] 14 USD------(27)------[47]36 SDSU----(36)------[25]\/127 ORU---(152)----[95]\/ 176 UND---(201)-----[157] 184 Denver-(161)---[200]\/\/ 262 WIU---(264)------[134] 279 Omaha(252)-----[286]\/ 325 NDSU-(278)-----[292] 340 PFW---(326)-----[334] Jan 8 Update: RPI---------(Massey) 16 USD------(29)38 SDSU----(36)156 Denver-(145)^ 157 ORU----(158)\/ 165 UND----(184) 223 WIU----(233)^^ 295 Omaha-(263) 325 NDSU--(284) 348 PFW----(328) NDSU and PFW... no way to say it gently. They are hot garbage. Omaha and WIU couldn't decide if they belonged in the middle or bottom groups for a while, but are starting to sort themselves out. Both of them are dealing with lots of roster turnover. WIU can be deadly if you catch them on a good shooting night, though. Omaha is actually playing decent defense statistically, but I don't see them as a big threat this year. Denver ORU and UND will be the ones to watch as spoilers/ trap games. The Pios already bit us once with an insane arc-shooting performance. I'd love for the same thing to happen to State, either at Denver, Tulsa or Grand Forks. ORU has decent defense and 3-point shooting, UND has Lexi Klabo. The SD teams haven't changed ranking much. What our #29 ranking from Massey (and projected RPI of #37) tells me is that our mid-major conference drags our RPI down below what our actual strength/potential is. I'd love to see the RPI go away, replaced by... really, anything else. The NET doesn't seem to be that bad.
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Post by GoYotes on Jan 8, 2019 11:14:01 GMT -6
ESPN braketologist Charlie Creme has 3 Summit League teams in his latest bracket , which has Denver getting the Summit League autobid. I don't think Denver will get the Summit autobid, but still makes for good conversation and message board chatter.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 8, 2019 11:34:53 GMT -6
ESPN braketologist Charlie Creme has 3 Summit League teams in his latest bracket , which has Denver getting the Summit League autobid. I don't think Denver will get the Summit autobid, but still makes for good conversation and message board chatter. Wow. I don't think that has ever happened. I guess that's what happens when you get Charlie to watch one of your games (the USD-SDSU game), and he is impressed... Denver gets the credit for the upset rather than dinging the Yotes. Having great coverage from Midco helps when you have influential folks like Charlie watching. Good stuff.
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Post by yotefan90 on Jan 8, 2019 15:14:49 GMT -6
Denver is getting credit for nothing more than being first in the standings at this time. Their 3-1 record is above all others so they're slotted. If they are in any other position at the time of the next bracketology, I think they'll be left off.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 14, 2019 14:53:02 GMT -6
RPI---------(Massey) 16 USD------(29)38 SDSU----(36)156 Denver-(145)^ 157 ORU----(158)\/ 165 UND----(184) 223 WIU----(233)^^ 295 Omaha-(263) 325 NDSU--(284) 348 PFW----(328) Jan 14 Update: RPI---------(Massey) 22 USD------(28)29 SDSU----(34)^159 ORU----(158) 160 Denver-(147) 190 UND----(196)\/ 229 WIU----(238) 301 Omaha-(276) 320 NDSU--(280) 336 PFW----(325) Not much has changed. UND has dropped a little. SDSU moved up a little and we moved down. Mostly (I think) due to a handful of conference losses to Iowa State, Indiana, Missouri, etc.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 21, 2019 14:04:21 GMT -6
Jan 14 Update: RPI---------(Massey) 22 USD------(28)29 SDSU----(34)^159 ORU----(158) 160 Denver-(147) 190 UND----(196)\/ 229 WIU----(238) 301 Omaha-(276) 320 NDSU--(280) 336 PFW----(325) Jan 21 Update: RPI---------(Massey) 24 USD------(30)25 SDSU----(33)149 Denver-(143) 168 ORU----(166) 218 UND----(214)\/ 235 WIU----(229) 302 Omaha-(280) 310 NDSU--(269) 338 PFW----(327) USD and SDSU are getting closer in RPI and Massey. That's probably pretty fitting. Another interesting development is the separation into four tiers of two teams. One of the bottom 3 won't make the Tournament. The seeds look like they are starting to stratify, although upsets can and do happen.
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Post by Yotes on Jan 21, 2019 21:43:59 GMT -6
Now for an un-advanced metric update:
Yotes up to 11 votes in the AP poll (7 votes last week).
Iowa State falls 2 spots to #20 in the poll.
Missouri regained their spot at #25, though they lost to #19 South Carolina tonight.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 22, 2019 16:41:31 GMT -6
#20 Iowa State @ #2 Baylor tonight on Fox Sports SW. USD opponent vs an SDSU opponent. I think an upset here would both benefit us and hurt the Jacks, but I could be wrong. Might be a wash. Too much math. I think when the men played Baylor it was also listed as FSSW, but it ended up being on multiple Fox channels. The Fox streaming app will probably have it either way.
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 23, 2019 10:37:39 GMT -6
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