|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 19, 2017 14:01:49 GMT -6
You might be right but in 2016 4 valley teams made it. NDSU & SDSU were given home field in the second round. YSU and ISUr were given first round games. YSU was at home and ISUr on the road. In 2017 the conference favorites may be ISUr and NDSU. If they were to tie or finish 1-2 it would be 2016 all over again and USD, losing to both as the GAM indicates they would today, would have a 50-50 at a home game. On the other hand a 9-2 USD could win the MVFC out right and have home field through out the playoffs. although, imho, this post isn't so accurate. Even if USD loses to ISU this weekend, I think they'll still be ranked ahead of them. If you look at common opponents, I think NDSU and USD get the byes this year. Initially you would think if we loose this weekend it bumps us out of #4...and we may and it may...but I have faith that we'd climb right back up before seasons end as, if the top 3 weren't as strong as they are, we would have advanced a spot yet again. I think the crème is settling in the league and the top 4 as of this week are the top 4 as it's going to end. May be juggling of those...but it looks pretty clear that these are the top 4 teams in the league.
YSU is definitely better than their ranking as is ISU and you have to throw Western in there as well. NIU makes a run but it's a fast sizzle. SDSU...I'm not going to give them any bulletin board material. All I have to say is I expect a hard game against them as they're a great team.
Your right thebacksackdad. I've thought about that too so I looked at old playoff brackets for a little clarification. A 9-2 record will almost certainly give them home field. If there was a question it would be which round and for how long. I do agree with my statement a 9-2 USD could get seeded home field throughout depending on what happens. I also agree with your summation of the league. It could, in a worse case senario for us, end up being YSU and WIU.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 19, 2017 13:53:58 GMT -6
We ripped UND's soul that game. They never recovered. In some ways you may have done them a favor. Their football team was vastly over rated even before all the injuries but It wasn't this bad. They may have finished over 500. Now of course after the USD schellacking and the injuries, the "what-could-have-beens" are up there near national championship level! You might say you have provided them with the moral victory national championship, a title they have coveted for years.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 18, 2017 18:41:14 GMT -6
Last week we had a 3 way tie. Coyote Fan 4-2 Coyote Crazy 5 4-2 Aldewitt 4-2 Great week for everyone! I'm throwing a flag! I put my conference picks in the Indiana State thread (called the UNI win, so I went 4-1). On review from the booth, that seems reasonable. You are down for a 4-1, week 6.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 17, 2017 21:55:42 GMT -6
The official line of -10.5 USD is too wide. It's like seeing a miss-priced stock. I would take ISUr and the points every time. The Red Birds have been inconsistant but the defense is stout. They don't, on a typical day give up many points. They dont give up many yards either.
USD on the other hand is used to getting lots and lots of yards and controlling the ball. The 'Yotes get a lot of 3rd down conversions and keep the drive alive. That wins football games and that is the matchup: USD offense VS. ISU defense.
On the other side of the ball ISU just doesn't score enough. That's why I think YSU will play a great game but come up short. I have it Coyotes by 2 points and haven't given a home field advantage because ISU is on a losing streak.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 17, 2017 21:31:14 GMT -6
Last week we had a 3 way tie.
Coyote Fan 4-2 Coyote Crazy 5 4-2 Aldewitt 4-2
Great week for everyone!
Here goes for week 7:
USD 35 @ ISUr 33 This is an even match. I think USD wins. This is THE game to date for The 'Yotes. YSU 31 @ UNI 21 UNI may be better than this. YSU is good. SDSU 38 @ MSU 20 SUI 34 @ ISUb 20 WIU 26 @ NDSU 36 Dog fight. Bison win.
Tie Breaker:
UND 23 @ Sac State 36
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 16, 2017 16:54:42 GMT -6
Hi Coyote Fan, I developed the GAM, Game Analyzer Mechanizim, over a number of years predicting football games. You have seen it and are using it for what it is: a good baseline for probable results based on statistical performances of each team. I don’t bet but it was developed as a betting guide. It has come in handy in the tailgate lots a number of times winning us some fame and fortune. It’s first big upset call was NDSU montana back in the D2days. The Coyotes showed it’s not perfect when they upset NDSU in the Fabulous Fargo Dome a few years back. With closer, individual game analysis, like you have done, it’s accuracy can often be improved. It’s made some remarkable calls including every NDSU FBS win. It beats guessing and provides winner as well as spread and over/under.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 16, 2017 5:14:50 GMT -6
NDSU played a great game on Saturday. It looked a lot like the USD/YSU game. Very physical, very competitive. YSU, NDSU &USD are in my opinion the top 3 teams in the league.
Un_ fans are your new best pals USD is their best chance on seeing the Bison lose. They spend a lot of their time dreaming up a bad future for NDSU football. At last look they were speculating on Bison football 2050 in a Fargo with 350,000 population. They talked themselves down from from NDSU moving to a major FBS conference with a new stadium to this:
“No team from the MAC, or Sun Belt is going to be in the FBS “playoffs”, so that would mean unless NDSU joins the Big 10 or Big 12, there will be no chance at a National Title. I am sure by the time they move up there will be more Bowl games so the 5-7 and 4-8 teams can play in one. Unless there is another tier in the FBS it’s not worth moving up especially with our location.”
with that calming them them down from all the injuries to their obviously national championship football team they are content in another moral victory and having a chance.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 15, 2017 17:24:15 GMT -6
For week 6 from the official MVFC schedule:
4-2 for the GAM this week. 11-6 for the season.
Indiana State 18 @ USD 41 Actual ISU 6 USD 56 Played out
UNI 26 @ SDSU 39 Actual UNI 38 SDSU 18 Upset
MSU 20 @ WIU 40 Actual MSU 30 WIU 49 Played out This was a good game that went back and forth for a while with MSU having a big lead.
NDSU 31 @ YSU 21 Actual NDSU 27 YSU 24 Played out Turned out to be the mythical 3 pt home field advantage.
ISUr 35 @ SIU 15 Actual ISUr 7 SIU 42 Upset
TIE BREAKER:
UND 29 @ Montana 38 Actual UND 17 Montana 41 Played out
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 15, 2017 15:50:48 GMT -6
Here's how the season looks this evening of 10/15:
Projected overall 2017 Record: 10-1 MVFC 7-1 Last week 9-1-1 & 6-1-1
There are some interesting things happening in the league. USD continues to show it is a very good football team, the obvious challenger to NDSU. UNI has reversed direction and is playing like a team that has a bright future. YSU is a very good football team too. SDSU continues to baffel but it appears they are a team headed in the wrong direction. The same can be said for ISUr if they dont reverse their fortunes this week. The rest of the league remains competitive and apparently can beat anybody anytime.
On the record:
9/16/17: UND @ WIU: USD -5, O/U 39, typical score 22-17 USD wins 45-7 9/30/17: USD @ WIU: USD -5, O/U 65, typical score 35-30 USD wins 38-33 10/7/17: YSU @ USD: USD -7, O/U 67, typical score 32-25 USD wins 31-28 10/14/17: ISUb @ USD: USD -23, O/U 59, typical score 41-18 USD wins 56-6
For the week of 10/21/17: USD @ ISUr: USD -2, O/U 68, typical score USD 35 ISUr 33 ISUr may be fading and USD is certainly not. I think USD will cover the spread and win. Im also taking under.
Projected:
10/28/17: SIU @ USD: USD -11, O/U 61, typical score USD 36-25. No change from last week
11/4/17: USD @ UNI: USD -14, O/U 62, typical score USD 38-24. UNI is improving every week, especially on defense.
11/11/17: USD @ NDSU: USD +5, O/U 61, typical score USD 28 NDSU 33. USD is closing the gap.
11/18/17: SDSU @ USD: USD -8, O/U 60, typical score 34-26. SDSU is experiencing difficulties. This is a rivalry game so you can throw the record book out but there is a significant edge emerging for USD.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 15, 2017 15:16:09 GMT -6
I'm going to update this a little later in the week because of the confusion surrounding the ISU statistics. The conference is a week behind too.
As of 10/15/17
I have the game:
Projected winner: USD Coyotes Spread: USD -2 Over/under: 68 Typical score: USD 35 ISUr 33
There was no home field adjustment for "The Swamp". I negated it because of the apparent downward spiral of the 4-2 Redbirds having dropped their last 2 games. The thing to remember is the Redbirds do have a good defense.
Overall the "Yotes have a superior offensive attack but the Redbirds will field the stingiest defense of the two teams. There is a real chance they could shut the Coyote running game down.
At the same time the Redbirds may find the answers to their offensive problems through the air. However, if they don't reverse their fortunes this one could get away from them too, dimming significantly any post season hopes and taking their conference title destiny out of their hands. Right now it's a virtual tie that can only be decided on paper by invoking the intangibles. For now I am leaving them alone and letting the numbers, as I found them this after noon, speak for themselves.
It's a narrow victory indicated by the GAM but it's all it will take to get to the next step in the USD quest for the MVFC and National football titles.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 14, 2017 8:05:58 GMT -6
IF that happens it will be fun to watch. It's possible. They have a good run defense but NDSU had 246 yards rushing against them.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 14, 2017 7:59:31 GMT -6
Coyote Fan has probably been to a game or two. Here's what Coyote Fan had to say in 2011: Here we are 6 years later, almost to the day, and USD is fielding a true national contender.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 14, 2017 7:42:09 GMT -6
I like to do a standing based on the home loss vs road win criteria. Ties broken by teams with wins first and whoever had the harder game second. 1 Illinois State +1 2 South Dakota +1 3 Northern Iowa +1 4 North Dakota St E 5 Youngstown State E 6 South Dakota St E 7 Indiana State E 8 Western Illinois -1 9 Southern Illinois -1 10 Missouri State -1 Good ranking system. It might provide some guidance when trying to determine a home field advantage. NDSU beat EWU on the road so +1 for NDSU too. Could be +2 after today which would put them ahead of USD which should be +1. It should create a tie at the top: ISUr with a win at SIU and NDSU with a win at YSU.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 13, 2017 12:03:41 GMT -6
Scoring offense #1 NDSU Scoring Defense #1 NDSU Total Defense #1 NDSU There is a big game brewing in Fargo. Outside of E. Washington, they've played cup cakes. You'll give them a run. NDSU is getting a bad rap with the weak schedule argument. USD has an easy one too. Bowling Green is FBS, true, but still rated by Sagarin at 128 which is ahead of #154 UND. I'll give them the edge with Western Ill, but thats it. NDSU boat-raced EWU, just like everyone else. USD had been learning how to win the close ones.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 13, 2017 11:50:47 GMT -6
I have the game:
Projected winner: USD Coyotes Spread: USD -23 Over/under: 59 Typical score: USD 41 ISUb 18
The Coyotes appear to be stronger in every phase of the game on both sides of the ball. The best match-up is the USD pass defense which allows 243 yds/game against the ISUb Pass Offense showing 187 yds/game.
The power clash will be the USD running game showing 226 yds/game against a stingy ISUb running D giving up only 132 yds/game.
With an 18% 3rd down conversion rate (11-63) the Sycamores will be lucky to get their 28 minutes with the ball.
I expect the 'Yotes to keep adding it up, just like the Bison. I don't know where they will stop. It's likely niether team will get their typical score. ISUb won't see their 18 and USD will blow past it's 41.
If I remember correctly NDSU shut these guys out.
|
|