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Post by coyote70 on Oct 18, 2018 9:20:31 GMT -6
Rules, rules, rules. Perhaps the best solution for this type of situation would be for Augie to play D2 football and Summit for everything else. This may fit some other colleges across the country as well but of course can't even be entertained.
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 18, 2018 9:45:04 GMT -6
Rules, rules, rules. Perhaps the best solution for this type of situation would be for Augie to play D2 football and Summit for everything else. This may fit some other colleges across the country as well but of course can't even be entertained. I agree. Aside from the federal Title IX requirements, which have to be met, the NCAA restricts a lot of things for seemingly no reason. Hockey, I think is a good model of how allowing one sport to compete in a higher division doesn't hurt anything. So what is the harm in allowing one sport to compete in a lower division? Schools with financially viable athletic departments should be a goal that the NCAA helps, rather than hinders. If you want to put it in terms of the student-athlete, how much does it help them to be a part of a financially failing program? |
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Post by Yotes on Oct 18, 2018 15:39:36 GMT -6
As a handicapper some cross divisional comparisons are not worth making, some are. The game revolves around the efficiency of the offensive and defensive units to score or keep their opponents from scoring. For each critical offensive/defensive statistic caps are applied assuring, within the statistical profile of the game, the evaluation is made comparing the highest possible performance by the higher ranked team vs. the lowest possible performance against the lower ranked team. It's proven to be a very reliable method as we saw in the KSU handicap. Augie could easily go "ofer" in the MVFC but they can win 2 and 3 others could be close. Ps. It's worth adding that I look forward to Augie playing in the MVFC. There will be some hugely "miss-priced" games and some exciting upsets. It will save us all a trip to timbuktue as well, preserve the league and foster good sportsmanship. (I just added the sportsman part so I had a nice group of 3 reasons. It would be nice though) My thing with FCS v. FBS games is that there is a lot of crossover play, so the stats you work with are at least in the same realm. There's just so little D2 v. D1. How can you determine the handicap? They did omit North Alabama. They're an odd case since they aren't really D1 yet, but still did beat at least one D1 team as they transition. I doubt there's any more that we are missing. I scoured the top 25 D2 teams and only found one instance of a team playing a D1 school, I think it was Central Washington and they lost to Eastern Washington by like 45. At any rate, I can't imagine a world where the MVFC invites Augustana, and I have to wonder if they would even want to join in the first place. |
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 18, 2018 16:11:56 GMT -6
To me the Pioneer League is the logical place for Augie football, and provides an "intermediate step" if and when they ever feel like a move to scholarship FCS football is feasible (it isn't right now).
Look at 2017 average attendance figures alone, since that is a huge driver of football revenue:
2395 = Northern Sun
3088 = Pioneer League
3273 = All D-II
3599 = Augustana
6500 = Kirkeby-Over Stadium Capacity
...
8223 = All D-I FCS
10697 = Missouri Valley
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 18, 2018 17:53:17 GMT -6
On the KSU game I didn't do any adjustments. My 6 points was straight up. For top programs there is no need. USD and KSU are in the same division. Lots of USD players could contribute at KSU. Some were probably recruited by them.
They miss-priced the game by making the adjustment. They may not repeat that mistake in the future with USD.
The last D2/FCS contest I handicapped was Ferris State @ NDSU. I used the average stats for each team without adjustment. NDSU was -8, over under was 46 and mythical score was 27-19. The advice was to take the Bison to win and cover and take the over. Actual score was 56-10. Ferris got about half of what was expected and NDSU about twice. That's when I learned about the flip/flop: making sure, within the statistical frame work of the game the lower ranked team has its low end performance compared to the high end of the higher ranked opponent.
That was applied during the classic Gopher/Bison series proving to be far more accurate. If I remember correctly those games were terribly miss-priced in favor of the Gophs. That was clear when I saw the game was close after the flip/flop and a clear Bison victory before.
As a result I have Augie capable of winning 2 and putting up a decent game in 3 others. Most of the time, in the old NCC, it wasn't until later in the season that Augie started to get blown out.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 19, 2018 6:53:05 GMT -6
Minimum sports and membership requirements are immediate threats to the Summit auto bid. The risk of losing it is high. Its a valuable league and fills a niche for Division 1. The division is full of niches the most obvious is the ability to play D1 hockey and have other sports at any division.
The logic: assure the few hockey schools playing at the time could find opponents within practical travel distance. The smaller schools couldn't afford to sponsor the other D1 sports leaving both the large and small schools without enough teams.
Another niche is about to be created when the 5 big conferences become more autonomous. The justification is similar to hockey and is called specific needs. From their own governance documents supporting the proposal:
"Five conferences and their 65 member institutions have specific needs to address unique
challenges."
With those examples in mind I think it's very likely the NCAA would honor the Summits request for niche status and allow the league to participate without meeting all the minimum requirements.
Certainly the Summit can show there are not enough schools in the area to provide an adequate number of conference members. This concept is the foundation of the NCAA hockey model.
It is also clear the Summit members have "specific needs to address unique challenges". Specific needs are obviously a priority with the NCAA.
Why should the Summit league teams be prevented from participating because of geographical limitations out of their control?
This deserved niche status eliminates the need for forced expansion. It might be too soon for Augie as it is for Mankato, Duluth and St Cloud?
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 29, 2018 7:10:29 GMT -6
More food for thought and a comment on the UND football board after yesterdays game: Yes, UND has been included in discussions about non-scholarship football sponsored by the Summit League. I think Augie joins The Summit and MVFC. We get something like this in the MVFC: | WEST | EAST | | Augie | ILS | | NDSU | IND | | SDSU | SIU | | USD | YSU | | UND | MSU ? | | WIU ? |
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It's nice travel for both divisions. Everybody plays 8 or 9 conference games. There is room for another team in the East. |
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Post by Yote 53 on Oct 29, 2018 7:41:41 GMT -6
More food for thought and a comment on the UND football board after yesterdays game: Yes, UND has been included in discussions about non-scholarship football sponsored by the Summit League. I think Augie joins The Summit and MVFC. We get something like this in the MVFC: | WEST | EAST | | Augie | ILS | | NDSU | IND | | SDSU | SIU | | USD | YSU | | UND | MSU ? | | WIU ? |
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It's nice travel for both divisions. Everybody plays 8 or 9 conference games. There is room for another team in the East. Did UNI get kicked out of the conference? That last MVFC spot is being held for Murray State or another potential school the MVC side of the conference may need a slot for. Those schools are not giving that spot to Augustana as it will limit their future options. There is a reason it was okay to add UND in 2 years, because we're looking at expansion in the East to balance out the conference. Augustana is not getting invited to the MVFC. Period. Full stop. End of story. |
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Post by yoteforever on Oct 29, 2018 9:48:34 GMT -6
I agree 53. If the MVFC even remotely considers Augie then I have zero faith in their leadership.
That being said, there’s going to need to be a lot of discussion on an all sports conference. I was a proponent of joining the Big Sky for that reason. I’m not mad we went the way we did, I just felt it was crucial to have all our sports in one conference.
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Post by Yote 53 on Oct 29, 2018 10:17:47 GMT -6
An all-sports conference would be ideal, problem is none of the MVC schools in the MVFC are going to leave the Valley and join up with us in an all-sports conference. They would sacrifice way too much money doing so and, let's face it, the Summit basketball programs don't look like the Valley basketball programs.
So if we're talking all-sports conferences you need to look around at who looks like the Dakota schools? Obvious answer is out west with the Montanas, Idahos, and a few others. The Big North conference we have all opined about that will never happen because it makes too much sense.
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Post by gopheryote on Oct 29, 2018 10:43:05 GMT -6
I realize I'm in the minority on this board, but I'm OK with Auggie in the SL/MVFC. My preference is that they come with a partner (Mankato or someone like that) to go through the transition together, but even without one, I give it the thumbs-up.
And my answer to the rebuttal of "can they afford it?!?!?" I simply say "not my problem - you can say that about half of D1 programs".
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Post by yotebewithyou on Oct 29, 2018 12:36:39 GMT -6
Augie cannot support football in the MVFC. STOP TALKING ABOUT IT
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Post by 3rdgenyote on Oct 29, 2018 16:43:10 GMT -6
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Post by Yotes on Oct 29, 2018 16:48:57 GMT -6
Augie cannot support football in the MVFC. STOP TALKING ABOUT IT I don't think they would even accept an invite. They'll never get one, but they have to know that there would be no winning for them in the MVFC. |
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 29, 2018 17:31:44 GMT -6
That IS interesting. I doubt the Pioneers are very happy about that. At least the WAC is being proactive in growing their conference, IMO. If Augie can figure out their football problem, they would be a natural fit in the Summit. Their "feasibility study" might just entail talking to their football donors to see if they will still support a "Pioneer League" program. |
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