@ Denver

[kiyoat]

It's the Summit's best defense vs. the best offense.  I was alarmed early on with Denver's offense, considering that arc-shooting is one of our team's few weaknesses.  Since then they have lost a few more games, we have won a few more games, and .... I don't feel as threatened by Denver.  Maybe we should, though.  One good arc-shooting night from Denver could give our team a major headache.

[kiyoat]

[kiyoat]

Massey gives us an 86% chance of winning with a typical score of:

82-70.

It would be nice to score in the 80's again, and I think Denver likes to push the pace so it likely will happen. The bigger question is if we can contain their 3-point shooting, and limit their possessions?

*edit: Our 3-Pt defense isn't really bad at all.  We have improved there, and are now #2 in the conference.  We are also only allowing 55 points a game.  I'll guess we control the pace of the game a little, and don't allow as many possessions.  My final score prediction:

Yotes win 76-65.

[kiyoat]

I could be wrong, but I believe Denver's games have been up-tempo many-possession games. And as such, certain stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. It's hard to ignore these stats, though:

5.9 Blocks/game ----(#8/#1) (national/Summit rank)
43 Rebounds/game (#42/#1)
10.1 3-Pt/game ----(#11/#1)
39.5% 3-Pt ---------(#10/#1)
83.0 Points/game --(#15/#1)

[kiyoat]

Match-up stats:

Denver is shooting:
43 FG/40 3P
USD is allowing:
37 FG/31 3P (big discrepancy from the arc)

Yotes are shooting:
43 FG/34 3P
Denver is allowing:
40 FG/34 3P

Fouls/FT shooting:
Both teams foul a lot and shoot very well at the line.  We may need to be strategic on who we foul.

Ball Control:
Rebound margin favors Yotes (+8.9 / +1.3)
Turnover margin favors Yotes (+5.1 / -0.4)
Assist/TO ratio is a push (1.07 / 1.01)

Ball control should be a huge factor in this game, and will allow our girls to control the pace somewhat.  Since both teams shoot very well at the line, the number of fouls called on each team will be a factor as well.

[elcoyote]

Being a road game, this might very well be the toughest conference test of the season outside the two games vs the Jacks. A win here would be huge.

[yotefan90]

Jan 3, 2019 11:09:25 GMT -6 elcoyote said:

Being a road game, this might very well be the toughest conference test of the season outside the two games vs the Jacks. A win here would be huge.

I was thinking that a few weeks ago as well until I saw the trouble that Western Illinois gave SDSU and then they beat Denver by 9. Granted, both were home games for Western but they appear to have things running pretty well right now. I believe there were some injuries on that team for some of the early season games and that may be part of the answer.

[Yotes]

Yotes lead 28-20 after first quarter. High scoring quarter.

[kiyoat]

Yeah, Denver is controlling the pace for sure. Not how I saw this going. If we keep up with them we might be scoring 100

[kiyoat]

Denver really seems to want to get shots up quickly in transition. That was the problem we had with WIU two years ago, and fixed last year...

[kiyoat]

50-50 at half! Holy crap. Our defense was averaging 55 total...

[gopheryote]

Anyone watching the feed? Is Denver getting a lot of open looks or making contested shots that usually don't fall?

[Men's League Waterboy]

Denver’s tough. And there have also been a few defensive lapses. But they’ve taken advantage. Good offensive team. Gotta get back. Gotta locate shooters.

[yotefan90]

They are making most everything and seem to be out hustling the ladies on a few plays.

[yoteforever]

Denver’s shooting really well. With 5 to go in 2nd quarter they were shooting 70%. Hot from 3. Whistle happy refs but on both sides if Denver plays 2nd half the same as first they will win