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Post by kiyoat on Mar 13, 2022 22:18:32 GMT -6
The reaction (that didn’t air)…
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Post by elcoyote on Mar 13, 2022 22:23:35 GMT -6
I really don't hate the draw. Looking at their roster, they have one behemoth at 6'5" but other than that, they look like we should be able to match up. It always seems like we draw a team where every starter is taller than Hannah. If we shoot decent, I think we have a pretty good shot ... and she looks to be really good. Need to contain her to some degree. Be interesting to see how Sjerven and her fare against each other. |
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 5:46:10 GMT -6
From an ESPN preview article:
Ole Miss Rebels
Under fourth-year coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin, the Rebels have surged back into SEC and national relevance. They are making their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2007 after finishing as WNIT runners-up last season. Though it struggled against some of the top SEC teams this season, Ole Miss showed grit by cutting a 25-point deficit to eight late in the SEC tournament semifinal against South Carolina. Behind stingy defense and a strong tournament from expected first-round WNBA draft pick Shakira Austin, the Rebels could make some noise in March.
South Dakota Coyotes
Behind a decisive performance against South Dakota State in the Summit League tournament final, South Dakota secured its spot in the NCAA tournament for the fourth consecutive season. The Coyotes, who are guided by Summit League Player of the Year Chloe Lamb, enter the Big Dance having won 25 of their past 26 games, including a notable early-season victory over fellow tournament team Creighton. The Coyotes are seeking their first NCAA tournament victory since their program got upgraded to Division I.
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Post by elcoyote on Mar 14, 2022 6:39:44 GMT -6
In peeking at their stats, I noticed that they're not very strong shooting from either three-point land (27%) or the free throw line (66%). If we can hit on our threes, it might be a big advantage. This looks to be a really nice matchup between two defensively oriented teams.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 7:43:02 GMT -6
predictions:
USD loses to Ole Miss 56-60 (+4) Massey
USD beats Ole Miss --58-55 (-3) R-1
USD ties Ole Miss ----56-56 (0) ELO
That's interesting. Very low total points predicted, so a defensive battle. sub-5 point margin in all predictions. Will have to do a major stats thingy.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 7:51:45 GMT -6
Here's there last game in it's entirety if anyone wants to watch it (vs USC). Sounds like SC was up big, then squandered the lead late in the game.
Here's just the highlights:
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 8:06:43 GMT -6
Ole Miss Last 5 games:
| NET | opponent | score | diff | | L | #1 | S Carolina | 51-61 | +10 | | W | #45 | Florida | 70-60 | -10 | | L | #1 | S Carolina | 57-71 | +14 | | W | #97 | Auburn | 72-52 | -20 | | W | #30 | Arkansas | 70-62 | -8 |
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 8:23:40 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 8:29:31 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 9:26:07 GMT -6
One of the reasons both Ole Miss and USD have such dominant defenses has to do with forcing turnovers.
USD forces 18.47 Turnovers/game (#52 nationally)
Miss forces 18.52 Turnovers/game (#50 nationally)
USD gets 3.4 blocks (#146), 8.9 steals (#86) a game.
Miss gets 4.4 blocks (#40), 9.2 steals (#63) a game.
So, very similar numbers, although with an SEC schedule I assume their blocking numbers are a little more impressive. I'd say the reverse on the steals numbers. Summit teams are pretty good at not turning the ball over in general. The fact that they have a little more blocks and steals means that we are creating a few more turnovers without it actually being a block or steal. So deflections and just forcing opposing teams to make "unforced" mistakes with good defense. Although I'd guess Ole Miss is doing this too.
Bottom line is that I think Ole Miss will be effective blocking our shots, and we will be effective getting steals, deflections and forcing errors. So let's look at the other side of it: ball control.
USD commits 10.9 turnovers/game (#2)
Miss commits 14.2 turnovers/game (#80)
USD has a 1.28 assist/turnover ratio (#2)
Miss has a 1.01 assist/turnover ratio (#81)
USD has a TO margin of +7.53 (#4)
Miss has a TO margin of +4.35 (#33)
To be fair, I doubt these numbers would hold up if the teams switched conferences. The SEC is filled with athletic, opportunistic defenses. But it does show a big contrast in valuing the basketball. We will probably commit a lot more turnovers than we normally do in this game, .... but if we don't that would be a major advantage.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 10:36:05 GMT -6
Let's look at fouling and free-throws:
USD commits 15.4 Personal Fouls/game (#97)
Miss commits 17.1 Personal Fouls/game (#232)
USD has 461 FT attempts (#197) in 32 games (14.40/game)
Miss has 582 FT attempts (#41) in 31 games (18.77/game)
USD made 343 FT (#151) in 32 games (10.72/game)
Miss made 389 FT (#71) in 31 games (12.55/game)
USD shoots 74.4% FT (#72)
Miss shoots 66.8% FT (#284)
2 things:
1) I'm going to assume that officiating in the SEC might be closer to "tournament style". Maybe that's a bad assumption, but if I'm right we might guess that USD could potentially commit even less fouls than normal.
2) it looks like Ole Miss is really good at drawing fouls, and end up shooting a lot of free-throws. They shoot rather poorly from the stripe, but even with that disadvantage they make up for it in volume. And that could be bad news for our "big three".
Bottom line: If we are able to play clean we should profit.
So who is drawing/committing these fouls? For Ole Miss it is mainly three players:
Shakira Austin, 6'-5" starting Center: 2.2 PF/game - 6.0 FT attempts (.679 shooting)
Madison Scott, 6'-1" starting Forward: 2.5 PF/game - 3.4 FT attempts (.657 shooting)
LaShonda Monk, 5'-6" starting Guard: 2.2 PF/game- 2.9 FT attempts (.778 shooting)
For the Yotes, there are four players committing over 2 PF a game, but different players are drawing fouls:
Sjerven 2.3 PF/game
Krull ----2.2 PF/game
Watson 2.2 PF/game
Lamb --2.1 PF/game
Sjerven ---4.9 FT Attempts (.662 shooting)
Korngable 2.5 FT Attempts (.747 shooting)
Lamb -----1.8 FT Attempts (.839 shooting)
Total 5-foul games
Scott 4
Austin 2
Monk 1
Reid 1
Kitchens 1
Krull 1
Watson 1
Lamb 1
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 10:41:37 GMT -6
The previous post is a little dense, but consider this:
Neither Sjerven nor Korngable have fouled out of a single game this year.
Both Korngable and Lamb (and often Sjerven) typically draw more fouls than they commit. Should be the "Smart Three" instead of the "Big Three". Liv and Chloe shoot rather well from the stripe, too.
Mississippi's players that both draw and commit the most fouls are starting post players. Both have fouled out of multiple games this year, so Sjerven could have an opportunity there, (or it could take her out of the game). I'm sure they are thinking the same thing and will come at her hard. High risk/ high reward.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Mar 14, 2022 10:45:36 GMT -6
10-6 in the SEC and two absolute handlings of Texas A&M says everything we need to know about this opponent.
The Yotes have to start both halves strong. Intensity and purpose with the ball are going to be huge.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 14, 2022 10:54:16 GMT -6
...The Yotes have to start both halves strong.... Yup. Bad memories of Oregon taking a full-court-press sledge hammer to the Yotes in the opening minutes last year. We actually won the second half, but the deficit was so big by that time that it didn't matter, (and they were probably coasting anyway). I remember the simple adjustment of bounce-passes made a huge difference, since Oregon was picking off half of our passes and swatting shots with their length, aggressiveness and chaos early on. *shivers* |
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seayote
Sophomore Member
Posts: 186
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Post by seayote on Mar 14, 2022 12:16:12 GMT -6
In terms of minutes distribution, USD has 7 players averaging 10+ mpg, while Ole Miss has 9. Three of our starters (Liv, Chloe and Maddie) average 30+, while Shakira Austin leads them with 27.3 mpg, which is 2.5 more than Hannah. As is always the case, it'd be best to avoid foul trouble.
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