2022 NCAA tournament

[soofooyote]

In order to win this matchup we will need to utilize the tried and true formula that almost every mid-major uses on the men's side to upset their opponents in the tournament. D and 3.

[ElsenMidco]

[gopheryote]

From a reporter's bracket and article on The Athletic, who writes about the SEC a ton:
• South Dakota over Ole Miss is a bold upset pick considering I was really impressed with Ole Miss at the SEC tournament. However, I think the Coyotes’ slower pace is going to frustrate the Rebels. And South Dakota is a very good team that doesn’t give away possessions. The Coyotes’ assist-to-turnover ratio (1.27) ranks 12th nationally and is similar to UConn and Iowa, and they’re very good at the rim. If Shakira Austin gets into foul trouble (and I expect Hannah Sjerven to go at her), Ole Miss could be in trouble.

[kiyoat]

FiveThirtyEight.com is a sports and political stats site that I have a high opinion of.  They put out odds for the whole tournament in an interactive graphic.  You can toggle between the men's and women's brackets


projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-march-madness-predictions/womens/

They have us with a 41% chance of winning the first round game (and a 3% chance of winning in the second round against 2-seed Baylor).

The only other mid-majors with better odds are 6-seed BYU (78%) and 9-seed Gonzaga (52%).

[MD]

youtu.be/sPlm-yPzk6o

3:50 mark. Pretty confident.

[Men's League Waterboy]

Feels like a tall order game to me. Lamb and Korngable will have to play out of their minds offensively and somehow Sjerven is going to have to stalemate a bigger, better player in Austin. It seems like they should be able to compete defensively but as was mentioned above ... do the Yotes get a bit hot from the arc? Can they get the SEC defense scrambling a bit? Because if USD thinks it's going to big-girl an SEC squad and just wear them down like a Summit squad that seems unlikely.

Could happen. I sure as hell hope it happens. But it's going to take an A-plus effort and a little luck.

[kiyoat]

Mar 15, 2022 9:05:39 GMT -6 MD said:

youtu.be/sPlm-yPzk6o

3:50 mark. Pretty confident.

Here's that video at the timestamp you mentioned:




I mean, she has a point  The vast majority of our schedule was mid-majors and low-majors, vs. Mississippi being in the SEC.  However, it would have been nice for her to mention that we DID schedule two good SEC squads, in addition to other P-6 schools in our non-conference.  We've done just about everything we possibly could to prepare for playing a team like Ole Miss (within the limitations of being in a mid-major conference).

Maybe she honestly didn't look at our schedule that closely.  I hope that's the case.

[seayote]

Mar 15, 2022 11:04:48 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

Mar 15, 2022 9:05:39 GMT -6 MD said:

youtu.be/sPlm-yPzk6o

3:50 mark. Pretty confident.

Here's that video at the timestamp you mentioned:




I mean, she has a point  The vast majority of our schedule was mid-majors and low-majors, vs. Mississippi being in the SEC.  However, it would have been nice for her to mention that we DID schedule two good SEC squads, in addition to other P-6 schools in our non-conference.  We've done just about everything we possibly could to prepare for playing a team like Ole Miss (within the limitations of being in a mid-major conference).

Maybe she honestly didn't look at our schedule that closely.  I hope that's the case.

She says all the right things, i.e., "respect for South Dakota" and "respect for their coach", etc., but I get the impression they're looking beyond USD. If so, maybe that's a good thing.

[yote18]

Let them look ahead to Baylor. I’d say Ole Miss has the most pressure in this game. First appearance since 2007 in the big dance, the higher seed, and looking to continue building their rebuild.

USD is not a pushover, hence why teams like South Carolina (you know the SEC household name) and Oklahoma ( a 4 seed) are willing to schedule us. That interview seemed just a little too confident. Dawn is a great coach and I’m confident she’s more prepared than Ole Miss realizes.

[fightsd]

Mar 15, 2022 13:47:33 GMT -6 yote18 said:

Let them look ahead to Baylor. I’d say Ole Miss has the most pressure in this game. First appearance since 2007 in the big dance, the higher seed, and looking to continue building their rebuild.

USD is not a pushover, hence why teams like South Carolina (you know the SEC household name) and Oklahoma ( a 4 seed) are willing to schedule us. That interview seemed just a little too confident. Dawn is a great coach and I’m confident she’s more prepared than Ole Miss realizes.

This is the best I've felt about a NCAA match up yet, I think. It's not gonna be easy, but it's definitely a winnable ball game. Our team is playing much better basketball now than they were during the non-con, which I what I think Ole Miss is evaluating this match up based on. We will need the 3s to fall because I don't think Sjerven will have 25 against that 6'5" gal unless we can get her into foul trouble. Play tough defense and shoot the ball well and everything will fall into place.

[gopheryote]

This seems like a fairly-seeded 10-7 game. We didn't get the benefit of a team that is over-seeded or stumbling to the finish line (yes, I mean MBB Providence). And the Yotes aren't under-seesed at 10. The gap between a 7 and 10 in WBB is still bigger than in MBB, but this is a pretty even game.

So intangibles can go a long way here. Is there a clear coaching advantage? Is there a style that one side will struggle to overcome (Oregon's press last year)? Will one team have a lot more fans in the stands? (Neutral fans will root for the lower seed) Did we learn something by playing South Carolina 3 straight years that can be applied here?

This is a winnable game.

[Men's League Waterboy]

They’ve got a 6-5 All-American who’s a consensus top 3 pick in the upcoming WNBA draft. You surround that with a bunch of SEC athletes and it’s going to be tough. I understand everybody thinks playing a couple of SEC schools this year means something but there are certainly other 5, 6 and 7 seeds I’d rather see in a first round matchup.

But I like everybody’s optimism.

[kiyoat]

[gopheryote]

Mar 15, 2022 16:53:04 GMT -6 Men's League Waterboy said:

They’ve got a 6-5 All-American who’s a consensus top 3 pick in the upcoming WNBA draft. You surround that with a bunch of SEC athletes and it’s going to be tough. I understand everybody thinks playing a couple of SEC schools this year means something but there are certainly other 5, 6 and 7 seeds I’d rather see in a first round matchup.

But I like everybody’s optimism.

CF, is that you?!? Kidding - relax everyone.

Well, I'm not sure anyone is saying it will be easy, or even expecting a win. And Austin is really good, but a) she isn't a high-volume scorer b) as a post, she doesn't always have the ball in her hands, and c) she is likely only the 3rd best big they have faced this year (Boston & Cardoso, who the Yotes didn't exactly shut down, but won't be awed). There is probably also a reason for optimism about facing a 10-6, tied for 4th/5th SEC team - the gap between them and the first place team in their conference is bigger than them and USD.

If we struggle to shoot (like SLT championship) there is little chance. If Chloe's first 2 or 3 go in (SLT semis), there is a chance....

[Men's League Waterboy]

Yotes got beat by a 4-12 team in the same conference. I’m totally hoping for a big win here but there’s a lot more signs pointing to disappointment than triumph. I will be cheering my ass off in front of the TV … and I pray Lamb is not only hot but also gets lost a lot by the D in this one because I desperately want to see her in particular go out with guns blazing. But this is not a good matchup. Period. Yotes are at their best when Sjerven’s the biggest, strongest kid on the floor. History has not been great to them when that’s not the case. Again, I really want it not to be the case but I’m a basketball realist before a Coyote diehard.