Oral Roberts @ USD

[kiyoat]

Time to get back into conference play!  Looks like USD's schedule is front-loaded, playing NDSU in the first conference game, and now Oral Roberts.

7PM Thursday night in the SCSC

Predictions:
Yotes win 78-70 (-8) Massey
Yotes win 76-65 (-11) Warren Nolan

The way we have been playing, this matchup worries me a bit.  ORU likes to play fast, with lots of possessions.  I think that won't be the part that kills us.  We also tend to be a quick-possession team.  It's the turnovers.

ORU is #1 in the conference in:
turnover margin (+6.2)
Assist/Turnover ratio (1.16)
steals/game (10.3)

They also lead in total rebounds, but are poor in rebound margin, so I attribute that to playing at a high pace/ many possessions...

[kiyoat]

And to clarify, USD is averaging 17 turnovers a game, so I used that as the "average" in the poll. the average in the conference is more like 15. ORU is forcing 19 per game...

[elcoyote]

After the Summit tourney game last March, think maybe they'll come out in a full court press right away?

[kiyoat]

Here's a look at our schedule with turnovers vs average forced by the opponent....

opponent	USD TO	Opp Ave	+/-
Northern St	14	12.2	+1.8
Creighton	14	13.5	+0.5
UNC	14	15.6	-1.6
DePaul	21	18.9	+2.1
Michigan	25	18.6	+6.4
Arizona	24	20.3	+3.7
SC State	12	13.6	-1.6
UNI	16	13.4	+2.6
LMU	18*	14.2	+3.8
Dickinson St	9	?
Mt Marty	9	?
UT Martin	22*	16.3	+5.7
Bradley	13	12.2	+0.8
NDSU	13	17.3	-4.3
Omaha	23*	17.2	+5.8
Montana	20	13.2	+6.8
Idaho St	18	16.5	+1.5

* = overtime game

we generally turn over the ball at a somewhat higher rate than what our opponents force on average.  There have been six really bad performances, and only one really good one (NDSU)

[kiyoat]

Looks like ORU has SIX players averaging 1 or more steals a game, led by a league-best 2.3 steals from 6'-1" former Oklahoma State transfer guard Ruthie Udoumoh (#22)

[yote18]

This game to me feels like a must win for this group if we want a good chance at solidifying our spot in the top 2/3 of the league. I expect an ORU squad ready to come in and make a statement, just like NDSU. We’re going to have to figure out some type of defensive scheme to slow them down otherwise this is going to turn into a high scoring affair.

Turnovers I predict will be 23 or so.

[gopheryote]

Maybe this has been addressed somewhere already, but why doesn't Morgan Hansen see the floor anymore? Injury, off-court focus, anything?

[90yote]

Hansen hasn't been in the rotation all year. I think it's always been defensive issues with her.

[dbyote]

Grace had 8 assists in the first half. We're a much better team when she does that.

[dbyote]

Man...we do ALL the little things that lose games. Could've had this one tonight. I honestly don't remember a worse defensive team but I've only been watching for 25 years.

We got outscored 38-17 in the last quarter and a half. Brutal

[90yote]

Jan 11, 2024 20:42:23 GMT -6 dbyote said:

Man...we do ALL the little things that lose games. Could've had this one tonight. I honestly don't remember a worse defensive team but I've only been watching for 25 years.

We got outscored 38-17 in the last quarter and a half. Brutal

38-17 in the last 11.5 minutes. I actually thought they were playing good fundamental defense for a couple quarters there and then that happened. But the points off turnovers and the second-chance points killed them.

I don't know if I've seen a college team commit so many turnovers on post-entry passes. That requires a good pass away from the defender and for the player in the post to seal their defender. That process was deficient tonight. Yotes looked like every post-entry pass was being defended by Hannah Sjerven.

NDSU and ORU are decent teams...but losing both games at home hurts.

[yote18]

22 turnovers … maybe they think they’re on a baking team? This games results makes me pessimistic for the rest of the season. St Thomas next week will be a challenge and then followed by SDSU. Gotta regroup cause at Thomas isn’t a gimme and I’m already chalking up sdsu as a loss.

[Men's League Waterboy]

37 points to a 5-10 sophomore guard on 17 shots doesn’t say a lot of great things about your perimeter D.

[marco]

At the game we played hard old story turnovers. But we had a lead in the second half OR is very athletic and we looked tired and slow in the 4 quarter as they keep out rebounding us getting 2nd and third shots

[Men's League Waterboy]

USD won the rebounding battle 33-30.

Is Oral Roberts VERY athletic or is USD subpar athletically?