yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 535
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Post by yote18 on Feb 28, 2023 10:57:14 GMT -6
I have to agree with Kiyoat and Oldhare here. Are NDSU and UND good? Yea they have some solid talent that’s no doubt. But as a whole they’re not much better than anyone else. What you’re witnessing is not necessarily the summit league stepping it up but rather one of the top 2 dropping down to the rest of the leagues level. Until another school outside of SDST, and hopefully USD again soon, is consistently around the 50-75 Net range then you have not caught up.
Case and point: SDSU Recent Net #37 next closest NDSU #176.
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Post by marco on Feb 28, 2023 12:59:44 GMT -6
Charlie Creme has the rabbits at a 12th seed. I thought they be better than that I think we were a 9th seed last year
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yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 535
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Post by yote18 on Feb 28, 2023 13:43:31 GMT -6
Charlie Creme has the rabbits at a 12th seed. I thought they be better than that I think we were a 9th seed last year We were a 10. SDSU unfortunately doesn’t benefit as much from running the table against the league with a down USD team. I do think SDSU is capable of making some noise in the big dance though similar to us last year they just need a favorable draw for seeding.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 28, 2023 14:49:50 GMT -6
Charlie Creme has the rabbits at a 12th seed. I thought they be better than that I think we were a 9th seed last year We were a 10. SDSU unfortunately doesn’t benefit as much from running the table against the league with a down USD team. I do think SDSU is capable of making some noise in the big dance though similar to us last year they just need a favorable draw for seeding. Yeah. They are clearly better than a 12-seed. If it actually pans out that way, I don't envy the 5-seed they are paired with. They should be somewhere in the high single digits IMHO, like 7 to 9. My pet theory is that the NCAA tinkered with the formula of the NET rating a little in the offseason, de-emphasizing the "net efficiency" part of the equation to some extent. If I'm right, it was really bad timing for this Jacks squad. The poor SOS of the Summit this year is dragging them down, just like it used to in the RPI era. Back then the only recourse for elite mid-majors was to schedule as tough as possible in the non-con, and try to win as many as possible, and don't get upset in conference play. There was a glimmer of hope for us mid-majors in the NET formula, where you could still prove yourself with high-level play, even with being SOS-handicapped. I sincerely hope that isn't going away. Otherwise they might as well have just stayed with the P-5 centric RPI formula. I'm hoping to see a number of mid-majors pulling upsets over 6th-place P-5 teams this year. Maybe I'll take a look at it after the NCAA selection...
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 10, 2023 16:43:57 GMT -6
Creme now has the Jacks as a 10-seed. That's a little better.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 13, 2023 9:42:59 GMT -6
Looks like they ended up as a 9-seed after all. Right now their NET/RPI is 32/38, which is much higher than when I checked last week (IIRC). Strange that the numbers would shift that fast... Maybe there was some last-minute tinkering to put the net-efficiency back in (because they realized that the NET was too similar to the RPI)? Weird. Anyway, I feel like a 9-seed is about where they should have been all along. Maybe the last decade of SDSU/USD post-season success is finally paying off with some respect from the selection committee? Hope so.
That being said, the 8 or 9 seed isn't great for a Sweet-16 run. At least they drew the weakest 1-seed (VA Tech) for a 2nd round game. I feel pretty good about their chances to get by 8-seed USC on Friday.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 13, 2023 11:25:00 GMT -6
In other postseason news, NDSU got the auto-bid to the WNIT (and accepted it). And UND is in the WBI tournament. One nice thing about that WBI is that you are guaranteed a certain number of games (3 I think) and it's all in one location.
I think this is the first season since 2010 we haven't qualified for a postseason tournament. We were in the Great West in the Spring of 2010. 13 years ago!
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ndfan
Freshman Member
Posts: 45
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Post by ndfan on Mar 13, 2023 14:12:20 GMT -6
Thank you for recognizing our post season invite and I think everyone is excited about getting to play in the postseason. I believe it's going to be good for our program for the coming years in that it will help in recruiting and especially this tournament where we will get to play 3 games. This gives us extra two weeks of practice and also game experience to help next year develop our young players to compete in the Summit. I expect next year conference to be better than last year with number of young players on all of the teams of conference to get better improving the level of play. I also expect teams like you guys to make significant improvement with getting healthy and adding to roster construction. UND has several recruits committed coming in and we still have several openings yet to be filled and my hope is we get people that can contribute to our front line for next season. I see number of people here don't believe the Summit is getting better because of net rankings but alot of that also has to do with past performance of teams in previous seasons you could see that this year with you guys still getting national recognition when you were struggling with this team from various factors but still getting rated higher than other teams in the Summit. I have been watching now for several years i can see improvement in the conference and why its so hard to win on the road. SDSU was exception which is very good team but i look at the team with 3 five year starters and 2 actual seniors plus very good core of younger players something you will not see again because of the extra year of eligibility. We even have that with our two starters this year and will have it again next year. I believe were getting better as conference and i think we are going to need that if we want to make runs in the tournament in the future.
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yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 535
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Post by yote18 on Mar 13, 2023 15:02:48 GMT -6
NDfan: I really enjoy your perspective and we’re all hoping the teams I. The post season rep the league well!
I will say though that the net ranking is a pretty good indicator of how good a team is towards the beginning of conference play maybe not quite there but you can get a sense of how well they’re doing. You are correct that it is inflated at the beginning of the season from prior results. But If you go look at final net rankings they’re pretty similar to how teams finished in conference play.
No teams really caught up this year as everyone outside of sdsu had a net of 180 or greater. And I mean this as nicely as possible but USD simply fell way down to your level. We went from 3-4 years of a 30-50 net/RPI to 200+, you didn’t catch up. Winning games is great but we want the league to be considered a 2 bid league, without the USD of past it’s a 1 bid league.
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ndfan
Freshman Member
Posts: 45
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Post by ndfan on Mar 13, 2023 16:43:10 GMT -6
The season UND had was big improvement from two years ago and we improved over last year and were much deeper bench than last year. The big thing that hurt us leaving of the Lane girl to transfer where we lost our size on the front court with experience and we didn't replace her with transfer. I believe if we had her or similar player, we wouldn't have been third in the league and nonconference record would have been much better. We have had hard time matching up with taller teams this year and if you look at our record majority of our losses have come from larger or I should say longer teams. The losses I have been referencing to are the Montanna State, Montanna, KC and North Dakota State games. I believe you were similar to us on this in not having that post player that could control the paint, but your younger front court players did step up but it's hard to get consistent play from freshmen and to play a full forty minutes. The problem in the NCAA is that big conferences get benefit of doubt so much and will always get the bids going to the tournament. The last I looked just before the conference tournament Minnesota they were right around 100 NDSU and UND were at 170 mark and NDSU had beaten Minnesota by six earlier in the season. I think the reason for this is that large conferences get more credit for playing themselves than mid-majors and everything is based off early season record and mid-major are not given as much credit for improvement during the season. This is why I believe that mid-majors should have break either in middle of conference season to play teams outside of conference or at the end of the season should have games against other teams of different conferences. This would give us better net rating on teams and i would believe that number of mid-major teams would have higher net ratings at the end of the season. This will not happen because it would mean number of larger schools would not make the tournament and tv wants these larger schools and tv markets watching the game. This is why I have big problem with NCAA basketball when it gets to end of the season. The Cinderella team has had deck so far stacked against them because of tv wanting large markets to be at the end of the tournament but every time they have Cinderella team that what draws the attention. The one of few times Cinderella has made to end was Michigan State vs Indiana State game with Bird and Magic still one largest game ever seen in college basketball. There are very few two bid mid-majors and especially in mid-west and I think more realistic goal would be like the Missouri valley or some other conferences of having two bid WNIT and still getting bid WBI from the conference and still getting high seed in the NCAA tournament.
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