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Post by kiyoat on Nov 17, 2022 9:07:15 GMT -6
I didn't see another thread for this yet, so I thought we might as well start it.
Not much to talk about yet, but clearly the Jacks are the team to beat, and Omaha has already had some quality wins against Wichita State and Weber State. Looks like their longtime Center, Pilakouta, is their leading scorer.
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Post by soofooyote on Nov 18, 2022 15:27:00 GMT -6
I don't know if Omaha's wins are very "quality". Their opponents have combined for 1 win and they lost to Nebraska by 65 points....a Nebraska team that put up a performance very similar to our own versus Creighton. I think we'll start to get a better feel for where our conference is at after the Thanksgiving break. NDSU has had a nice start beating Montana on the road and Minnesota.
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yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 535
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Post by yote18 on Nov 21, 2022 19:12:25 GMT -6
Jacks get the top 10 win against Louisville, and it looks like they commanded that game winning by 10.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 21, 2022 21:32:05 GMT -6
Check out the comments and quote tweets on that tweet. So many saying "it's not an upset, it's what we expect". Sheesh. It's a top-10 win. Literally nobody would have, or should have predicted that outcome. Not Vegas. Not experts. Not computer models.
There's no reason to be cavalier or cocky about it, or downplay it. It's a big deal. Enjoy it. This is a fantastic team. I guess I don't understand that mind-set.
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Post by Yotes on Nov 21, 2022 21:37:24 GMT -6
Check out the comments and quote tweets on that tweet. So many saying "it's not an upset, it's what we expect". Sheesh. It's a top-10 win. Literally nobody would have, or should have predicted that outcome. Not Vegas. Not experts. Not computer models. There's no reason to be cavalier or cocky about it, or downplay it. It's a big deal. Enjoy it. This is a fantastic team. I guess I don't understand that mind-set. Was this same person livid about losing to Creighton? That game was at home against a much lower ranked team. Gotta wonder if AJ is on the hot seat.
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yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 535
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Post by yote18 on Nov 21, 2022 22:41:12 GMT -6
It’s an upset, but I’d say it’s also not an upset, SDSU is good …. Like always but this year idk, they could make another deep run.
These are the wins we need as a conference, maybe not top 10 but we need to consistently get to the point where other schools outside of SDSU and USD are winning quality matchups. Hats off to SDSU, much like our win against Baylor on their home court, they proved never overlook a summit team.
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Post by captaincoyote on Nov 22, 2022 6:03:32 GMT -6
It's absolutely an upset. Maybe not on the scale of App State over Mich/A&M, but an upset. Let State be cocky though, it will make it even funnier when they lose in the SLT again.
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Post by gopheryote on Nov 22, 2022 6:34:21 GMT -6
WBB is off to a pretty fun start. Including #1 South Carolina over #2 Stanford in OT this weekend. The tourney that SDSU played in was pretty wild - so you could say almost everything was an upset, or none of it was (except Rutgers - they were the outlier). The #3 team in the country (Texas) played in 7th/8th place game - out of 8 remember. #10 Louisville lost to Gonzaga and SDSU - both by double digits. Likely some of those teams were ranked wrong or just starting the season slow, but it is all pretty wild.
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yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 535
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Post by yote18 on Dec 1, 2022 9:40:09 GMT -6
With around 4 games left in non-con I think we might be seeing a new contender for the title emerging. NDSU is on a roll right now, SDSU is having some hiccups but still the overall favorite imo.
Conference Race predictions: (not intended to stir conflict, just how I see things shaping out due to injuries, new coaches, current level of play)
1: SDSU 2: NDSU 3:UND 4: omaha 5:USD 6: ORU 7: Denver 8: KC 9: WIU 10: UST
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 1, 2022 13:49:30 GMT -6
With around 4 games left in non-con I think we might be seeing a new contender for the title emerging. NDSU is on a roll right now, SDSU is having some hiccups but still the overall favorite imo. Conference Race predictions: (not intended to stir conflict, just how I see things shaping out due to injuries, new coaches, current level of play) 1: SDSU 2: NDSU 3:UND 4: omaha 5:USD 6: ORU 7: Denver 8: KC 9: WIU 10: UST I appreciate objectivity, and right now we are objectively average. I’m still hoping to see some improvement by the end of the season, and I think the odds are good that we will. The reality of mid-major basketball is that how you are playing at the end of the season is what matters, unless you are good enough to earn an at-large.
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Post by elcoyote on Dec 1, 2022 16:28:10 GMT -6
I think if we could have kept everyone healthy, we would have been the second or, at worst, third best team in the league. Might still be able to end up there but losing two/three starters is a tough hill for any team to climb. Not throwing in the towel, but the focus this season should be on player development and gaining experience.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 1, 2022 17:56:32 GMT -6
Here's a look at the current RPI and net efficiency (the two main parts of the NET rankings) RPI* | tm | net* | tm | NET** | tm | 35 | NDSU | 110 | NDSU | 51 | NDSU | 75 | SDSU | 130 | UST | 82 | SDSU | 142 | Oma | 149 | SDSU | 133 | UST | 162 | ORU | 177 | UND | 155 | Oma | 188 | UST | 223 | Den | 160 | UND | 192 | USD | 246 | USD | 167 | ORU | 213 | UND | 256 | KC | 170 | USD | 290 | KC | 281 | Oma | 222 | KC | 305 | WIU | 287 | ORU | 235 | Den | 337 | Den | 290 | WIU | 240 | WIU |
*calculated at WarrenNolan.com **my formula [(0.6net) + RPI]/2 = NET This is all pretty inaccurate rankings this early in the season, especially RPI, but it shows how far we have to go....
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ndfan
Freshman Member
Posts: 45
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Post by ndfan on Dec 2, 2022 14:27:46 GMT -6
The above rankings of team I would agree with top five with the exception I would place USD at four. Instead of five. I also don’t think UST is last either. The ranking of the teams in my estimation is so far off it’s puts them of no value in my mind. SDSU is by far best team in the summit and there record may not show it but is because quality teams they are playing and at same time playing of their freshmen to help them develop for the season. When they start playing more minutes with their experienced players we will see significant difference in their performance. NDSU on other hand have been playing their best players trying to build team chemistry but now when they start seeing this from other teams they are going come back to the pack.UND which I am fan and follow and I am not sure what we have for a team to compete this year in the summit because we’re undersized but we play good defense and number younger players are starting to show they could become factor by end of the season. Omaha I haven’t seen so I have no opinion. ORU with the new coach and style of play they are playing I have my doubts how far they will go. DU I still think there in rebuild after talent they lost last year. WIU looks like to me they will have hard time being at the bottom conference. KC is going to get better as season goes along they are team that could pull off couple upsets this season. The Summit is going to be competitive conference not quite as strong as last year but one better mid majors.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 7, 2022 9:56:18 GMT -6
Current RPI/ net efficiency/ (NET estimate)
| RPI* | tm | net* | tm | NET** | tm |
| 1 | 62 | SDSU | 119 | UST | 73 | SDSU | 1 | 2 | 103 | NDSU | 140 | SDSU | 101 | NDSU | 2 | 3 | 108 | ORU | 164 | NDSU | 116 | UND | 3 | 4 | 133 | UND | 166 | UND | 147 | ORU | 4 | 5 | 144 | Oma | 249 | Den | 148 | Oma | 5 | 6 | 196 | USD | 254 | Oma | 160 | UST | 6 | 7 | 236 | KC | 264 | KC | 180 | USD | 7 | 8 | 249 | UST | 274 | USD | 197 | KC | 8 | 9 | 307 | Den | 300 | WIU | 228 | Den | 9 | 10 | 316 | WIU | 309 | ORU | 248 | WIU | 10 |
*calculated at WarrenNolan.com **estimated with my own formula: [(0.6net) + RPI]/2 = NET again, these are all fairly inaccurate due to limited data and SOS, but maybe it will provide a little perspective/ motivation/ chip on your shoulder, or whatever. Gotta start somewhere. I have to think we will move up on this list through the season. Where will we end up? Who knows. I'd guess anywhere from 3rd to 5th. Any lower than that, and I'll be pretty disappointed in our coaching (assuming no more injuries to starters). Take a look at ORU and St Thomas. They are both hard to rank based on their non-con schedules. ORU has the toughest non-con schedule, and are getting hammered. St Thomas has the easiest schedule, and are winning. So who really knows how good they are based on stats alone? We will know more (about everyone) once the regular season starts.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 8, 2022 10:57:01 GMT -6
Current NET vs my estimate
| NET** | tm | | NET* | tm | 1 | 73 | SDSU |
| 74 | SDSU | 2 | 101 | NDSU |
| 155 | NDSU | 3 | 116 | UND |
| 173 | UST | 4 | 147 | ORU |
| 180 | UND | 5 | 148 | Oma |
| 217 | USD | 6 | 160 | UST |
| 226 | ORU | 7 | 180 | USD |
| 241 | Oma | 8 | 197 | KC |
| 272 | KC | 9 | 228 | Den |
| 275 | Den | 10 | 248 | WIU |
| 322 | WIU |
*actual NET **estimated with my own formula: [(0.6net) + RPI]/2 = NET I don't know if the NET is yet released, but if not, WN.com has their own simulated one... So I had to compare it with my own estimate. I think I like theirs better. update: it's the real NET
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