|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 2, 2017 4:26:38 GMT -6
Here’s the top 25 in FCS from Sagarin. 4th best FCSteam in the country today
Sagarin FCS Top-25 Code: Rank SagRank RATING Team Conference 1 4674.69North Dakota State Missouri Valley 2 6969.22James Madison Colonial 3 7267.77Youngstown State Missouri Valley 4 7865.31South Dakota Missouri Valley 5 8764.22South Dakota State Missouri Valley 6 9063.50Western Illinois Missouri Valley 7 9462.90Illinois State Missouri Valley 8 9562.22Sam Houston State Southland 9 9762.08Jacksonville State Ohio Valley 1010560.47Central Arkansas Southland 1111358.50Weber State Big Sky 1211758.08Samford Southern 1311857.61Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 1411957.56Wofford Southern 1512256.32Eastern Washington Big Sky 1612355.48Villanova Colonial 1712654.81The Citadel Southern 1812954.14Richmond Colonial 1913153.82Northern Arizona Big Sky 2013353.33Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 2113552.74Montana State Big Sky 2213752.67Stony Brook Colonial 2314151.69Western Carolina Southern 2414351.30Tennessee-Martin Ohio Valley 2514550.76NC A&T Mid-Eastern
thanks to OP on Bisonville for list.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 1, 2017 12:45:12 GMT -6
You might be right but in 2016 4 valley teams made it. NDSU & SDSU were given home field in the second round. YSU and ISUr were given first round games. YSU was at home and ISUr on the road.
In 2017 the conference favorites may be ISUr and NDSU. If they were to tie or finish 1-2 it would be 2016 all over again and USD, losing to both as the GAM indicates they would today, would have a 50-50 at a home game.
On the other hand a 9-2 USD could win the MVFC out right and have home field through out the playoffs.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 1, 2017 9:56:05 GMT -6
Final score of 38-33 (although, barring some shaky game management in the end, USD should have run away with it) Your criteria correctly predicted a 5 point difference in favor of USD. Of note, the combined score of 71 was just six points over the over/under mark. I like this, keep them coming. The computer/criteria/whatever was lucky this time but I don't think it would have predicted a 5 point win the Coyotes were up 32 over midway through the 3rd and definitely would have never had either team with a lead as large as the Coyotes had. The GAM didn't predict a 5 point win. It said there was a 5 point spread between the teams. It's a measure of relative strength. It is a guide to anyone wanting to bet the game or make their own guess. As it turned out the spread was a wash, it was the only game in the league to go over and the right team won. The GAM predicted the winner but as always the over/under and spread are simply a guess.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 1, 2017 9:44:29 GMT -6
Heres how the season looks this morning:
Current record 4-0 Indicated final record 9-2. Last week 10-1. The indicated losses will probably restrict USD to an at large bid on the road, but the Dakota Dome is nice so we will have to see.
Change from last week ISUr game switched from win to loss. The teams tightened to a statistical tie so intangables were activated. The Swamp is a tough place to play and ISUr controls the ball as well as anyone.
Overall everything seemed to tighten a bit. The rally by WIU and a better performance by teams, especially on defense, caused this.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 1, 2017 9:11:33 GMT -6
3-2 on the week with 2 upsets. Consistently coming in on the under it's obvious the step up in competition as teams begin league play.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 1, 2017 3:26:48 GMT -6
They aren't a Valley team yet but could it be that UN_ (no Defense)* will provide the league with a new doormat? They are getting worse by the week. They weren't very good last year either. Now they are a tomato can.
*joke from SS.com
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Oct 1, 2017 3:11:30 GMT -6
Both teams were able to achieve their statistical potentials. As a result the score was very similar to the GAM result. It really doesn't matter when the points were scored or what game conditions were at any given time.
Because of the GAM analysis I was expecting a WIU rally. It proved they are bonafide.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 30, 2017 17:47:04 GMT -6
It's a one score game with 2:11. Great rally by WIU. It's a whale of a game.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 30, 2017 16:41:10 GMT -6
NDSU had a none existant targeting call and ejection too. Announcers were startled it was upheld in review.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 30, 2017 15:34:22 GMT -6
USD had their first win in Fargo in 2015 since 1978 so it's been like 2 or 3 yrs
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 30, 2017 14:19:38 GMT -6
Great opening drive by USD! I was distracted and a little confused by the 4th and 1 apparently played twice but the first must not have counted.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 30, 2017 13:57:56 GMT -6
Bison 24 MSU 5
Tighter than expected. A truly bizarre call saw an NDSU player ejected for targeting. Bison lost momentum but just saw Lance Dunn take it in from about 69 yds out early in the second half. NDSU is settling down and taking control.
Had to laugh at the UND board. Famous for their moral victories they are starting to claim one:
Posted 42 minutes ago Missouri State is hanging closer than anyone expected with NDSU.
40 minutes ago, geaux_sioux said: technically should be 17-8 (msu went for it on fourth and 3 at the three)...
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 30, 2017 11:27:59 GMT -6
SDSU 29 YSU 27: SDSU -2, O/U 56
MSU 13 NDSU 49: MSU +36, O/U 62
UNI 26 SIU 38: UNI +12, O/U 64
INDY St 11 Illinois St 39: ISUb +28, O/U 50
USD 35 WIU 30: USD -5, O/U 65
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 30, 2017 9:46:53 GMT -6
Heres how the season looks this morning:
10-1
USD @ WIU: USD -5, O/U 65, typical score 35-30 YSU @ USD: USD -7, O/U 67, typical score 32-25 ISUb @ USD: USD -26, O/U 62, typical score 44-18 USD @ ISUr: USD -3, O/U 57, typical score 30-27 SIU @ USD: USD -10, O/U 64, typical score 37-27 USD @ UNI: USD -22, O/U 66, tyical score 44-22 USD @ NDSU: USD +8, O/U 72, typical score 27-35 SDSU @ USD: USD -5, O/U 63, typical score 34-29
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 30, 2017 9:11:15 GMT -6
"This is a game that the program really needs to win if they want to climb to the ranks of a team competing to be in the MVFC top tier conversation"
How true OBC. This is the first shake-out game for USD.
Right now I have them running the table, and quite handily in most cases, with a close game at SDSU. The only loss I see is to The Bison. It's an upset if WIU wins today.
No one, outside the Big Dakota Schools, is coming close to the offensive potential and the balanced attack the Yotes have on display.
ISUr is showing the best defensive potential with YSU and WIU just a step behind.
Todays game could turn into a true defensive battle. Both teams are devastating against the run, especially WIU, if neither breaks this will be decided in the air.
My take: The difference will be at QB. 3rd down conversions could be the key to the game. USD has the edge and Chris Streveler is the total offensive leader in MVFC.
|
|