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Post by elcoyote on Nov 21, 2017 22:32:40 GMT -6
usdyotes--Yes all the QBs the Yotes have had great HS stats otherwise they wouldn't be here. The difference with Simmons is he's led the Coyotes to two Valley victories and threw a crucial 4th down TD pass in another when Strev was injured! We will be set at QB regardless who wins the job. The real improvement of this team will be the continued development of the OL and DL and the further improvement of our defense - LB play needs to be improved and I believe will. (Anyone have an update on the health of Jake Matthew? - he was a great get out of Omaha North and has been plagued by injuries the first two years. My goodness we could have used him this year!) Next year teams are going to be surprised by the Yotes overall improvement across position groups. I will predict top 8 seed. Small correction, but Matthew is from Millard North. Right direction, wrong town, picking nits. I wish I knew about him too. He was a football (OWH Super Six) and wrestling stud in high school and I don't know if he's even practiced much here. I see him at the games on the sidelines in shorts and a tshirt walking just fine, no braces or casts on any upper extremities or anything so I just don't know what to think other than he has lost two seasons of development which certainly can't help. |
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Post by thebacksackdad on Nov 21, 2017 22:42:35 GMT -6
What does everybody say about creating a new thread for the QB discussions??? Don't mind discussing the future but it certainly has detracted from this present topic? ... and btw Strev...U ROCK!!! ... fans will be fans... go out n kick some cajun booty!!!
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Post by coyote70 on Nov 21, 2017 23:57:13 GMT -6
Regarding predictions....I won't be at the Nicholls game, which concerns me some. Why? Because I almost never see the Coyotes lose when I'm in attendance. Okay, there was that game about 6 years ago at Wisconsin, but otherwise I think the only loss I've witnessed in person for at least a decade was Cal-Poly around 2010 or some such (was at the Minnesota game).
Of course, I see no more than 2 games a year because of distance (UND and YSU this year).
I hope this has no bearing on anything, but this looks to be a tough game that the Coyotes can and WILL win - even without me.
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Post by Yotes on Nov 22, 2017 7:28:15 GMT -6
Regarding predictions....I won't be at the Nicholls game, which concerns me some. Why? Because I almost never see the Coyotes lose when I'm in attendance. Okay, there was that game about 6 years ago at Wisconsin, but otherwise I think the only loss I've witnessed in person for at least a decade was Cal-Poly around 2010 or some such (was at the Minnesota game). Of course, I see no more than 2 games a year because of distance (UND and YSU this year). I hope this has no bearing on anything, but this looks to be a tough game that the Coyotes can and WILL win - even without me. If the Yotes were still winning just two games a year I would also be concerned about any game you didn't attend. You can still set up a Go Fund Me though. Maybe the board will pay your way down there. |
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Post by coyote70 on Nov 22, 2017 8:15:34 GMT -6
Ha ha! Have the money; not the (travel) time.
Would like to see the Yotes on the road again sometime soon, though.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 22, 2017 11:18:46 GMT -6
I was looking at the staff predictions so I set up the paramaters for the first and each probable game. This information can be handy and useful when discussing games in the tailgate lot.
If they were to play this week:
ROUND 1:
USD @ Nicholls
Predicted winner: USD
Spread: USD -11 (SOS adjustment)
Typical score: USD 31 Nicholls 20
Over/Under: 51
ROUND 2:
USD @ SHSU
Predicted winner: SHSU
Spread: SHSU -2 (no home field adjustment, no SOS adjustment)
Typical score: USD 33 SHSU 35
Over/Under: 68
ROUND 3:
If the upset occurs
USD @ JSU
Predicted winner: JSU
Spread: JSU -1
Typical score: USD 26 JSU 27 (no adjustments)
Over/Under: 53
ROUND 4:
If the upset occurs
USD @ JMU
Predicted winner: JMU
Spread: JMU -7 (no home field adjustment)
Typical score: USD 23 JMU 30
Over/Under: 53
Just for fun Im adding this:
NDSU @ JMU
Predicted winner: NDSU
Spread: NDSU -1 (no adjustments)
Typical score: NDSU 25 JMU 24
Over/Under: 49
Of interest to both Coyote and NDSU fans: JMU has a fantastic rushing defense, even better than NDSUs 88 yards/game. I haven't looked at the statistics in depth but I dont think they have faced the rushing offenses the Yotes and Bison have. This rushing statistic is suspect and only takes an average day for either team on the ground and JMU is in trouble. They will lose control of clock and game especially if their own rushing offense experiences the same phenomenon as the rushing defense.
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Post by Yote 53 on Nov 22, 2017 12:18:15 GMT -6
JMU is on the other side of the bracket. JSU is on our side.
Stats are fine but it is impossible to make the adjustment for competition. USD has played much, much tougher teams. Your models can't compute that.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 22, 2017 14:13:51 GMT -6
Yes, Yote 53, Working from memory I skipped the actual third round and jumped right to the desired final game. After the Nicholls game I haven't done any adjustments.
My model does allow for adjustment to strength of schedule. That is a percentage adjustment based on a number of factors applied to the predicted final score of the team under consideration.
The models show what will happen, in an objective way, if each team is able to equal or exceed its established statistical identity. You will see that actual results will almost always hover about the statistical profile for the game. Of course these are games, subject to random events and super human efforts so nothing is 100%.
I think both Jacksonville State and James Madison are suspect regarding strength of schedule. If any of these games come about I will examine the situation for final adjustment. (Look what the Bison did to a highly touted JSU team in the national championship a couple years ago.) These adjustments are somewhat subjective in nature but are tied to the teams comparative performances.
It is a good guide as to what will probably happen. It's more objective than say five dimes but a nice compliment. The betting reflects the feelings and opinions of those betting. For example, if the spread is bigger than the GAM its an indication to consider over and indicated winner to cover the spread.
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Post by Yote 53 on Nov 22, 2017 21:03:29 GMT -6
You say "if the teams play to their statistical identity". That's where I am pointing out the flaw in the model. Comparing two teams who put up statistics against completely different competition. Point is, not all stats are created equal. Stats put up against MVFC competition carry much greater weight than stats put up in the SLC. I just don't know how you can adjust for that.
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Post by Yotes on Nov 22, 2017 23:58:31 GMT -6
No model will ever be perfect. I admire that a poster here made his own model though. I'm curious what it's record is against Sagarin and betting lines is. I'm guessing aldewitt has an idea and look forward to the response.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 23, 2017 3:09:33 GMT -6
Hi Yote, the model seems to always be in line with Sagarin and five dimes. It is usually more conservative than five dimes. Some glorious exceptions were the Bison FBS upsets. Five dimes was giving NDSU 20-30 points when The GAM was predicting a narrow Bison win at Minnesota. Same with Iowa (GAM called a 5 point loss in Iowa for NDSU. After adjustment for the intangible - motivation - it correctly showed a 2 pt win). None of the FBS wins granted the host home field because of NDSUs road record. It signaled a win at Kansas State. It was within a couple points.
It did about 60-90% this year depending on the week. The weekly threads are posted in the MVFC area. One week almost every game was an upset.
Yote 53 is running the same criticism of the GAM as the Iowa fans. I learned a couple things too. The more evenly matched the more decimal places you need to find a meaningful difference. I was out 4 or 5 places with Kansas State. I’m seeing that more with evenly matched FCS teams too. At one time nobody was evenly matched with NDSU.
Adjustments like Yote 53 are talking about can and are made. They are calculated coefficients used to modify an otherwise pristine and objective statistical analysis. They are applied to the final score. The more effort you put in to examining the intangibles the greater the accuracy. Sagarin even offers the up to 3-4 points for home field. I allow that too. I also use time of possession ratios. Relative performance against peers is handy when examining strength of schedule and talent gap, a big deal with FBS fans. There are very few good players in FCS in many of their minds.
It will most always be signaling in a similar manner to Sagarin etc but a little more conservative than other systems and betting lines. It’s not infallible of course but the insights it offers are better than hunches or a guess. The guys here gave it a good run so far this year.
The main thing is it’s fun and if I were a betting man I would have done well so far. The GAM gives you a leg up when prognosticating.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 23, 2017 3:55:00 GMT -6
a Good football team in a weak conference should have lopsided wins and be leading the league in all categories. If they are, it’s a good sign they will be competitive. Nicholls has shown some of these characteristics
At USD -11 it is more conservative than the -20 I saw yesterday on a betting line. I take the 20 if I’m a Nicholls fan but I have an uneasy feeling it’s not enough
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Post by Yote 53 on Nov 23, 2017 7:43:02 GMT -6
You answered my question. In your response you said that there was an adjustment made. That is all I was saying, how do you account for differences in competition. Asked and answered. Thanks.
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Post by Yotes on Nov 23, 2017 8:54:45 GMT -6
Do you have a noted record against Sagarin or the spread? You mentioned you would have done well if you were a betting man.
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Post by yoteforever on Nov 23, 2017 9:10:15 GMT -6
Hi Yote, the model seems to always be in line with Sagarin and five dimes. It is usually more conservative than five dimes. Some glorious exceptions were the Bison FBS upsets. Five dimes was giving NDSU 20-30 points when The GAM was predicting a narrow Bison win at Minnesota. Same with Iowa (GAM called a 5 point loss in Iowa for NDSU. After adjustment for the intangible - motivation - it correctly showed a 2 pt win). None of the FBS wins granted the host home field because of NDSUs road record. It signaled a win at Kansas State. It was within a couple points. It did about 60-90% this year depending on the week. The weekly threads are posted in the MVFC area. One week almost every game was an upset. Yote 53 is running the same criticism of the GAM as the Iowa fans. I learned a couple things too. The more evenly matched the more decimal places you need to find a meaningful difference. I was out 4 or 5 places with Kansas State. I’m seeing that more with evenly matched FCS teams too. At one time nobody was evenly matched with NDSU. Adjustments like Yote 53 are talking about can and are made. They are calculated coefficients used to modify an otherwise pristine and objective statistical analysis. They are applied to the final score. The more effort you put in to examining the intangibles the greater the accuracy. Sagarin even offers the up to 3-4 points for home field. I allow that too. I also use time of possession ratios. Relative performance against peers is handy when examining strength of schedule and talent gap, a big deal with FBS fans. There are very few good players in FCS in many of their minds. It will most always be signaling in a similar manner to Sagarin etc but a little more conservative than other systems and betting lines. It’s not infallible of course but the insights it offers are better than hunches or a guess. The guys here gave it a good run so far this year. The main thing is it’s fun and if I were a betting man I would have done well so far. The GAM gives you a leg up when prognosticating. I for one have appreciated your game by game analysis this season. It makes a lot of sense and I enjoyed the foresight it provided, so thank you very much. You're a complete gentleman and always talk in a calm narrative. Question for you: Do you take away any points for the Coyotes because I go to the games? Lol. If so, I'll stay home |
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