Our staff predictions -- for USD

[aldewitt]

Thanks Yoteforever it has been fun. There is a winnable path to Frisco too. Just need to string a few together

[thebacksackdad]

Nov 23, 2017 17:48:31 GMT -6 aldewitt said:

Thanks Yoteforever it has been fun. There is a winnable path to Frisco too. Just need to string a few together

It's definitely a winning path! One game at a time. It's not like our coaching staff hasn't walked it before. WHAM SHAKALAKA!!! Watch out southerners...

[aldewitt]

Running the numbers on SHSU game I come up with:

PREDICTED WINNER:  SHSU
SPREAD:  -2
TYPICAL SCORE:  SHSU 35  USD 33
OVER/UNDER:  68

They play in 14,000 seat Brower Stadium:

The stadium opened on Sept. 13, 1986, with a 23-6 victory over Montana State.

The largest crowd ever to see a game in Bowers Stadium (more than 16,000) watched Sam Houston State defeat nationally-ranked Alcorn State and future Super Bowl quarterback Steve "Air" McNair in 1994 in a contest aired on ABC-TV.

Since the stadium opened, the Bearkats produced a record of 81 victories, 40 losses and one tie in the facility.

Im not giving any home field.  This is nothing new for USD.  It looks like Nicholls stadium, just bigger.

The teams are almost identical with balanced attacks and defenses that produce similar results.  The big difference between these teams is the efficiency of the BearKat offense in scoring points.  They average 45 points/game while giving up 28.  This is no fluke and the statistics show that.  They also show USD is good enough to slow them down on offense and exploit their defense just enough to keep it within 2.  

If the Yotes are going to win this one they need a break or a great game.  Somewhere they need to find a 3 point edge to propel them to victory.

For what its worth, Im taking the Yotes, the 2 points (I want more) and the under, although Saturdays total of 69 points has me a bit leary of the under.

[aldewitt]

As a guide to the outcome of games the GAM does a wonderful job. Right now at USD-2 @ SHSU, it's a close call. The idea of any bet is to give points so the mythical score at the begining of the game will be 0-0 in the eyes of each side.  This perception, and the spread, changes as bets are made.  Right now objectively we are being told to take at least 2.

If I were to wager on this one I would take the Yotes and points. However I have sat among the Sammy fans a couple times in Frisco and they have a lot of arrogant confidence in their team, as they should have. Their money will probably drive that spread wider.

For my money, Im sitting back and watch that happen. The name of the game for Yote fans, at least those taking a stake in the outcome, is to get as many points as possible. By Wednesday they might be giving a touchdown. Maybe they will be out of their heads like they were for Nicholls and put 7 in Yote fans pocket on the opening line? At any rate, I believe the Yotes are the underdog but not by much.

At -2 a lot of Sammy fans will add 3 for home field and give an automatic 5 to any USD takers.

[easmus]

I have to think that projection is better in the SHSU thread. It’s a good post though.

[aldewitt]

I posted it before that thread started. Ill move it over there too. I think its better there myself.