Pre-Game Look: USD @ KSU

[aldewitt]

This is a look at the KSU game.  The analysis is based on last year but it does provide a base-line when looking ahead.  To begin with there are some bad signs.

Last year KSU beat Cent Ark 55-17 in their opener. USD & UCA were also second round playoff seeds. Both traveled and lost.

USD scored 43 losing by 10 at SHSU. UCA mustered 15 losing to New Hampshire 21-15.

Encouraging! It sends a signal USD is a superior team and will do better against KSU. Why? Because you may infer, if you please, USD does better against better competition.

This all depends of course on the quality of next years team. 

Using last season stats I found some confusing outcomes. UCA would have only been a 3 pt underdog at KSU. Also, UCA would have been a 3 point favorite over the Yotes. Doesn’t make sense.

Looking at their KSU game the killer for the UCA defense was speed and the big play. KSU only scored 4 times from the red zone yet had 55 points. They only had 5 first downs with 521 yds. They scored 4 times through the air with 33 yards/catch, averaged 6 yds/carry and returned an INT for a TD. That tells me KSU has great team speed and hit the big play all day.  All of that is adequate for them in the FBS but can be overwhelming when playing an FCS team.  It's also difficult to see when comparing two teams with statistics acquired in different divisions.    

UCA finished with 421 yards and a 15 minute advantage in possession time! Obviously they had a long field and lots of yards but couldn’t score.  Physically along the lines they were competitive.

Looking ahead to the USD @ KSU game and holding back on any home field advantage, a comparison of last years teams shows:

PREDICTED WINNER: KSU
SPREAD: -6 KSU
OVER/UNDER: 50
MYTHICAL SCORE: KSU 28 - USD 22

There are several questions. Can KSU and USD stats be reliably compared because of strength of schedule, higher scholarships, superior resources and recruiting without further adjustment? What will next year's team be like compared to this years?

Tough to answer. For the NDSU game I compared how the Bison stacked up against the competition. In most respects NDSU was doing better against it’s FCS competition than KSU against the FBS. Same on an individual basis. More outstanding Bison players in the FCS than KSU players in the FBS. Sagarin also had the Bison and KSU ranked for a close one.  I concluded the statistics were comparable.  What I was seeing with the GAM was a fair representation of what could happen if the teams met on an average day.

I don't know if any of these are in place for next year. Until we do it’s going to be hard to predict if this game is UCA 2 or a good contest with a legitimate chance for the Yotes to win.

NOTES:
Tickets are $55 on stub hub for the same seats I paid $110 for NDSU.  Good time to buy if you want to go.  Get your hotel now too.  We stayed in town at the super 8 and it was just fine. 

Great stadium, town and tailgate.  Bring lots of water if it's hot.

My GAM system correctly called the NDSU game and presented the full analysis on the KSU board over a 6 month period. I appreciated all the input on the KSU team from their fans. I was able to fill them in on NDSU.

University of South Dakota 2018 Football Schedule

AT KANSAS STATE
VS NORTHERN COLORADO
AT WEBER STATE
AT SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
VS MISSOURI STATE
VS NORTHERN IOWA
AT YOUNGSTOWN STATE
VS NORTH DAKOTA STATE
AT INDIANA STATE
VS WESTERN ILLINOIS
AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

[elcoyote]

As usual, very good stuff. KState is a fun place to visit, the people there are super friendly and Aggieville is memorable. I know the popular opinion around is that USD will fall dramatically without Streveler, but I think that's mostly wishful thinking. Obviously he'll be a huge loss, but there is a lot of talent coming back on all units and the new QB should prove himself to be more than capable. It'll be fun to watch and I hope every other teams takes us for granted. KState and Weber Sate on the road will be tough OCC games. Not sure about Northern Colorado, but that's at home.

[Coyote Fan]

K-state will almost certainly be a loss and UNC a win. The Weber game will be tough as I am sure they won't forget 2016 in the dome. I don't believe the Yotes have ever gone better than 1-3 in their last 4 valley games because usually by then there will be plenty of injuries or other reasons why things won't click. The Yotes will need to be at 5 wins minimum prior to the last 4 games as history says that segment will be tough.

[Yotes]

I wanted to go to K State last time around, hope to make it this time. I dearly love Kansas City and any excuse to go that direction is fine by me.

As for the game, I'll be surprised if we hang with them. Bill Snyder has built a legendary career on disciplined play. They will not take USD lightly like others might.

[elcoyote]

Jan 15, 2018 18:53:29 GMT -6 Yotes said:

I wanted to go to K State last time around, hope to make it this time. I dearly love Kansas City and any excuse to go that direction is fine by me.

As for the game, I'll be surprised if we hang with them. Bill Snyder has built a legendary career on disciplined play. They will not take USD lightly like others might.

Manhattan is actually quite a distance from Kansas City. In a few years we play KU in Lawrence and that's within an hour I think. A little Oklahoma Joe's BBQ is always worth a trip. Do I entertain thoughts of a victory over KState? Nice to consider, but it would be a major, major upset obviously. I do think that we have the personel to acquit ourselves well against them though and would be really surprised and disappointed if it was a blowout.

[Yotes]

Jan 15, 2018 21:24:13 GMT -6 elcoyote said:

Jan 15, 2018 18:53:29 GMT -6 Yotes said:

I wanted to go to K State last time around, hope to make it this time. I dearly love Kansas City and any excuse to go that direction is fine by me.

As for the game, I'll be surprised if we hang with them. Bill Snyder has built a legendary career on disciplined play. They will not take USD lightly like others might.

Manhattan is actually quite a distance from Kansas City. In a few years we play KU in Lawrence and that's within an hour I think. A little Oklahoma Joe's BBQ is always worth a trip. Do I entertain thoughts of a victory over KState? Nice to consider, but it would be a major, major upset obviously. I do think that we have the personel to acquit ourselves well against them though and would be really surprised and disappointed if it was a blowout.

I do realize it's a two hour drive from Manhattan to KC, but that's a small obstacle between me and some Boulevard and great BBQ.

[wrj]

Jan 15, 2018 21:24:13 GMT -6 elcoyote said:

Jan 15, 2018 18:53:29 GMT -6 Yotes said:

A little Oklahoma Joe's BBQ is always worth a trip.

It is now called Joe's Kansas City Bar-B-Que.

[elcoyote]

I thought KC was farther than that from Manhattan. That is worth the detour. I knew they changed the name, but it's always going to be Oklahoma Joe's to me. Old habits are hard to break. Wasn't there some falling out between/among the owners and one guy went solo with it?

[wrj]

I don't know the story behind the name change. But I would hate to have a Que fan miss out because of looking up the wrong name. Actually, the best Bar-B-Que i ever had in Kansas City was from a small neighborhood place near the ballpark. I can't remember the name of the place. The building had a run down appearance with weeds growing in the parking lot.

[sportschic]

I live in the KC Metro and The Z-man at the former Okie Joes now Joe's KC is the best BBQ sandwich hands down. Buuuuuut you all need to try a fairly new BBQ restaurant called Q 39. Q 39 is located on 39th st in KCMO. Trust me ...you will NOT be disappointed. It is more of a sit down restaurant than a grab n go. Manhattan KS is approximately 2 hours west of Kansas City MO.

[usdtator]

Jan 16, 2018 6:59:45 GMT -6 wrj said:

I don't know the story behind the name change. But I would hate to have a Que fan miss out because of looking up the wrong name. Actually, the best Bar-B-Que i ever had in Kansas City was from a small neighborhood place near the ballpark. I can't remember the name of the place. The building had a run down appearance with weeds growing in the parking lot.

Pretty sure you are thinking of Arthur Bryant's BBQ. That's my favorite place to eat in KC. They have two locations now, the one you are talking about and the one out near the racetrack on the west side of KC. The one downtown is clearly better IMHO -- old school ovens and spits make the restaurant.

I think the location and appearance of the one downtown make it taste better as well. As you are driving to the restaurant, you are wondering if you should even be driving in that area. Food and atmosphere are well worth the drive though!

[sportschic]

USDtator just FYI Aurthur Bryant’s was closed down for a roach infestation a couple of times in the past few years. The original one located downtown.

[coyotecrazie5]

My cousin lives in KC and says that KC Joe's is the best in town, but the line can be super long. This is what happened last time I was in town and we went to Q39. The food was great and it is a newer style restaurant. I like the old school run down BBQ joints. I was at Gates BBQ in Independence which is just east of Arrowhead/Kaufman and the food was great and the employees made the experience pretty cool. Independence is a little sketchy tho!

[usdtator]

Jan 16, 2018 13:49:36 GMT -6 sportschic said:

USDtator just FYI Aurthur Bryant’s was closed down for a roach infestation a couple of times in the past few years. The original one located downtown.

No kidding??? Last time I was there was when the Yotes last played Kansas St. Well... thanks for that for info... 

[wrj]

After a little internet search, I think we were at Big T's.