2018-2019 Schedule

[hoopsmom]

I like the schedule! I’m looking forward to getting to quite a few of the games, especially Drake because it is closer to us than Vermilion. I like the toughness of Missouri and Green Bay, both of which will definitely help our RPI. We are counting down the days!

[yotebewithyou]

Wow, that's a very nice schedule!

[kiyoat]

Aug 14, 2018 10:04:53 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

I'll do a comparison once all the schedules are out in the next week or so (for the men's too)...

That was almost 2 months ago... Well, I finally did a Non-con comparison using the final RPIs from last year.

Average RPI of schedule (RPI of team)
87 SDSU (28)
122 USD (59)
162 Den (181)
170 WIU (100)
171 UND (207)
182 NDSU (285)
197 ORU (173)
210 UNO (240)
215 PFW (325)

I was very impressed with the Jacks' schedule.  Murderer's row.  Denver, UND and NDSU really went above and beyond with their schedule strength, given their team's own strength, and the Coyotes have a very strong schedule as well.  The rest were a little lackluster, especially ORU.  Omaha and Fort Wayne likely have a hard time scheduling tough teams, and instead had a strategy of just getting teams they will be competitive with.  Hard to fault them.

[kiyoat]

Here's another way to evaluate the schedules:
Number of Power-5 teams:
4 SDSU
4 USD
4 ORU
3 WIU
3 UND
2 NDSU
2 UNO
1 Denver
1 PFW

Now we see some different strategies.  USD and SDSU have gotten the attention of some P-5 schools.  ORU and WIU have as well, but decided to fill the rest out with weaker, winnable games.  Denver and NDSU were able to increase their overall schedule strength without getting P-5 match-ups.  So they made an effort to get some decent mid-majors.

USD's Power-5 opponents (I included the Big East as a Power-6)
Creighton (Big East)
Iowa State(Big 12)
Missouri (SEC)
Indiana (Big 10)

[kiyoat]

Number of non-Division-I opponents (excluding exhibition games)
3 PFW
2 USD
2 WIU
2 ORU
1 UND
1 UNO
1 NDSU
0 SDSU
0 Denver

Division II, III and NAIA schools don't count towards RPI, but can count as a win. There are many reasons to schedule these teams, ranging from netting an easy win, to backfilling a schedule that you are unable to complete, to supporting local area teams, etc. I don't care for these games personally.

USD scheduled College of St. Mary and Bellevue. Its possible that we are simply fulfilling an agreement to play two games with them, after we had to backfill the schedule last year due to IUPUI leaving. Kudos to SDSU and Denver for NOT doing that.

[kiyoat]

Last but not least, quadrants. This is the new way the men's NCAA tournament is evaluating teams. I don't think the women's is doing that, but it's just another way to look at the schedule. As an example, a "quadrant one" win holds the most clout. Like the "quality wins" in the past. That is a win over a team ranked 1-30 for home games, 1-50 for Neutral, or 1-75 for road. Then there are Q-2 wins, and Q-3 wins. Quadrant 4 wins are essentially worthless. So here are the schedules:

Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4
6-4-2-1 SDSU
4-2-3-3 USD
2-3-4-4 Denver
2-1-5-3 WIU
2-1-2-6 ORU
1-3-3-5 UND
1-2-0-6 PFW
1-2-1-7 Omaha
0-1-6-4 NDSU


Here are SDSU's Quadrant 1 games:
#4 Baylor (neutral)
#7 Oregon (home)
#15 Central Mich. (away)
#22 Buffalo (neutral)
#23 Green Bay (home)
#25 Marquette (away)

I'd guess they have the best shot at Green 
Bay at home

USD's Quadrant 1 games:
#23 Green Bay (home)
#24 Missouri (away)
#49 Creighton (away)
#63 Drake (away)

Ill say we beat Drake, maybe GB, but Creighton is too early in the year (first game)

[kiyoat]

Bold predictions for non-con W/L record (my VB guess was way off)

10-4 USD
8-5 SDSU
8-5 WIU
8-5 ORU
8-5 UND
7-6 Denver
5-7 Omaha
5-7 PFW
3-9 NDSU

[coyoteglory]

Great info, thanks kiyoat.

[hoopsmom]

I saw a post yesterday that the Mountain West conference will be scheduling conference games in early to mid December next year. So far, they think it might only be on the men’s side, but the women’s schedules in that conference usually mirror the men. This will totally screw up their ability to schedule tough nonconference games in December!

[kiyoat]

Also, keep in mind that using last year's ending RPI to rank schedules is a little questionable, but you work with what you have. The RPI of a team isn't always the best measure of a team's actual strength, and teams can drastically improve or regress between seasons, or within the same season, based on injuries, transfers, etc. I maybe could have used the Massey rating, but I'm not going to go back and do that now...

That's why I like to see Power-5 teams on the schedule, regardless of their current rankings. You might notice that neither Iowa State nor Indiana were listed in my "Quadrant 1" teams because they were just outside of the top-30 or top-50 etc. Both of those teams have the potential to be a Q-1 type team. Iowa State was just having a down year, IMO. Indiana won the WNIT, and IMO will be a tournament team this year. Just being in a Power conference gives them the potential of quickly raising their RPI just by winning a couple more conference games than last year. Plus, fans, players and coaches get excited to play Power-5 teams, and beat them, regardless of RPI. It helps attendance if you can get them at home. We have seen that in WBB numerous times in the last several years.

I love the direction we are going in with regard to scheduling. (minus the NAIA schools) It's the right strategy. Even if SDSU over-did it a little this year, they are still going to get that major RPI boost. Even with a few more losses in the non-conference. It gives them more opportunities to pull off an upset, which selection committees look at.

[kiyoat]

Oct 10, 2018 7:13:41 GMT -6 hoopsmom said:

I saw a post yesterday that the Mountain West conference will be scheduling conference games in early to mid December next year. So far, they think it might only be on the men’s side, but the women’s schedules in that conference usually mirror the men. This will totally screw up their ability to schedule tough nonconference games in December!

Interesting.  Well, maybe they are less worried about that on the men's side because the Mt West is a very strong conference.  Some consider them a "high-major" on the men's side, along with the A-10, American and Big East.  The same cannot be said about the Mt West women's teams.  They are basically on-par with the Summit in competitiveness, although the athletic budgets might be bigger.

A lot like the men/women's teams in the Missouri Valley.  Drake and UNI are two of the Valley's best women's teams, and we have a 4-1 record against Drake, and are 3-3 against UNI over the last 7 seasons.

[yoteforever]

Oct 10, 2018 7:27:22 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

Also, keep in mind that using last year's ending RPI to rank schedules is a little questionable, but you work with what you have. The RPI of a team isn't always the best measure of a team's actual strength, and teams can drastically improve or regress between seasons, or within the same season, based on injuries, transfers, etc. I maybe could have used the Massey rating, but I'm not going to go back and do that now...

That's why I like to see Power-5 teams on the schedule, regardless of their current rankings. You might notice that neither Iowa State nor Indiana were listed in my "Quadrant 1" teams because they were just outside of the top-30 or top-50 etc. Both of those teams have the potential to be a Q-1 type team. Iowa State was just having a down year, IMO. Indiana won the WNIT, and IMO will be a tournament team this year. Just being in a Power conference gives them the potential of quickly raising their RPI just by winning a couple more conference games than last year. Plus, fans, players and coaches get excited to play Power-5 teams, and beat them, regardless of RPI. It helps attendance if you can get them at home. We have seen that in WBB numerous times in the last several years.

I love the direction we are going in with regard to scheduling. (minus the NAIA schools) It's the right strategy. Even if SDSU over-did it a little this year, they are still going to get that major RPI boost. Even with a few more losses in the non-conference. It gives them more opportunities to pull off an upset, which selection committees look at.

Kiyoat,

I understand your logic on scheduling but will ask this to you just to be the devils advocate. Why is it important to have so many games against the “big girls” programs as opposed to having those games against our peers? I do thoroughly understand the “we beat a power 5 school” and puff out your chest mentality, that’s fun. But the reality of our program, and all programs in the Summit League is we are for now a one bid team. That bid goes to the “champion” of a three game tournament. Right now it appears either SDSU or USD will be that team, but who knows who gets hot at the right time. Going back to my question. If you get a power 5 school to come to Vermillion ( like Iowa State this year ) then that should build fan interest. Bigger crowds, renewed interest. I also get the going to a warm weather place and play whomever we do but very few fans will see that. But let’s say we go and play a fair amount of power 5 schools on the road. What’s the gain? There’s an argument that it prepares you for the NCAA tournament, but realistically those games are played up 3 months ago. A lot of things happen in 3 months. You can say it prepares you for league play but many on here really don’t value winning a conference championship regular season but prefer the conference tournament title. I get that, I just don’t think that way.

I’d rather go 14-0 in the league and order the rings. My reasoning is even if you win the conference tournament you’re most likely to get a crappy seed and have a really tough first round opponent and lose anyway. I get for some why they prefer the NCAA tournament, I’m just not one of them. That being said, I’d rather have both. Lol

I guess I’d like to see a schedule where we played teams from the Big Sky Or MAAC and play home and homes. Iowa State agreeing to play us in Vermillion was a generous gesture on their part. Probably a 2 for 1 deal, but nonetheless a great opportunity for our fans. Just like when their volleyball team came last year to play us in Vermillion.

Thoughts?

[coyotecrazie5]

The more a lower level team beats a P5 school or plays them very tough, the better the resume looks. Each year is separate for the playoff committee, but a track record matters. I have said for 3 years that the Summit should be a 2-bid league in WBB. I don't think that will happen until USD beats SDSU in the SLT and the Jacks possibly gettting an at-large. USD had an undefeated conference record and failed to make the dance, so ho knows.

I will also argue the SL not able to get a good seed, because sdsu has had some good seeds. I believe they were a 4 seed in the late 00's. Regardless of seeding, there have been more upsets and close games in the MBB and WBB NCAA touney than ever before. Making the Tourney is essential because I believe both dakota schools can compete with the top teams in the country outside of the top 3.

Scheduling tougher competition is always a positive in my eyes.

[Yotes]

The Summit isn't far from being a two-bid league on the women's side though. State probably would have been an at-large into the NCAA Tourney last year if we would have won in Sioux Falls, they did get an 8 seed. That doesn't come with an easy non-conference schedule of Big Sky peers. Have to schedule up to rise up.

[yoteforever]

I agree with you that’s how a committee should look at it. No question you’re right. The point is they don’t take a 2nd team from the Summit. To be honest, if SDSU won the regular season title but USD won the conference tournament and the committee selected SDSU as an at large team I’d be pissed. The truth of the matter is SDSU no longer has a stranglehold on this league. Enter the Coyotes.

Is it feasible we could get a win the first round? Of course it. Is it likely? I’d say no but then again I hope I was wrong. Put yourself inside the committee room on selection Sunday. Let’s say USD won the regular season title at 12-2. The Jacks won the tournament and get the bid. The committee is down to the last 3 teams being selected. USD is on the radar screen because they won regular season title. But let’s say in the 14 non conference games ( 3 against D2 or lower ) the Yotes are 5-9. They’ve lost to Iowa State, Indiana, and so on. They are 17-11. Now for arguments sake we played the same three lower teams but instead of the power 5’s we played a schedule like I suggested. And they go 10-4 giving them an overall record of 22-6. What plays better in the room? I honestly don’t know, just a thought.

In closing I’m not arguing with anyone on here. I just like having this discussion. I’m not convinced playing Indiana to a 2 point game carries any weight. Maybe it does. I don’t know.