2018-2019 Schedule

[kiyoat]

Dec 21, 2018 12:39:23 GMT -6 hoopsmom said:

No, this is Reilly, not Sara. Sara is red-shirting this year. Unless they both were?

I had to go back and re-read the Bisonville thread I saw it in:

Sarah decided to redshirt for "ongoing health reasons".

Reilly (the one from Waukee) was suspended for "violating team rules" for the year.  She wasn't even sitting with the team during games.

Makes sense why she would transfer after that.  Hell of a player, IIRC.

[yoteforever]

Coyotes lead 22-13 after 1st quarter

[kiyoat]

Oct 9, 2018 23:05:48 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

Bold predictions for non-con W/L record (my VB guess was way off)

10-4 USD 12-2
8-5 SDSU -8-5
8-5 WIU ---4-9
8-5 ORU ---7-6
8-5 UND ---5-8
7-6 Denver 7-6
5-7 Omaha 5-7
5-7 PFW ---4-8
3-9 NDSU -3-9

Here is the actual non-con records vs my prediction.

Looks like I nailed SDSU, Denver, Omaha and NDSU, and came within 1 game of ORU and PFW.

For USD I didn't predict the Missouri win, or Iowa State
For WIU and UND I'm disappointed in their starts, and I don't see how they turn it around, honestly.

It's now time for conference play.  3/4 of the RPI formula is SOS, and the relative SOS has been set by the non-con.  The W/L records of other conference teams during conference play won't affect RPI (because it is round-robin), so we just need to protect our own W/L record.  For RPI, but also for that #1 seed.

[GoYotes]

I believe that RPI is calculated only on results of games and teams that you have played to date. Therefore our RPI will automatically decrease when we play our first games against the NDSU, FW, etc. of the Summit.

[kiyoat]

Dec 27, 2018 9:30:57 GMT -6 GoYotes said:

I believe that RPI is calculated only on results of games and teams that you have played to date. Therefore our RPI will automatically decrease when we play our first games against the NDSU, FW, etc. of the Summit.

Right.  That's true.  What I'm saying is that the overall potential for increasing the conference's RPI is no longer in play.  In the non-conference, we should always root for Summit teams to win games, as it boosts the overall potential of the Summit teams' RPI.

Now it's different.  Other than our own W/L record, it doesn't really matter to us which teams beat which teams in conference play, (with regard to RPI) since we all play each other twice.  The only thing that the other games affects is league standing and seeding. 


For example, SDSU being upset by Denver or ORU is great for us.  It helps our standing and seeding, and won't hurt our RPI either way, since we play ORU twice, Denver twice and SDSU twice.

[Yotes]

Watching and rooting for our OOC opponents to help our resume:

Missouri won at #10 Tennessee today, improving to 13-3 on the year. They haven't lost since we took them down.

#25 Iowa State keeps rolling with a win over Kansas to improve to 12-2. Their other loss is to #19 Iowa.

Indiana still has just the one (baffling!) loss, won today against #15 Michigan State. Sitting at 14-1 and threatening to crack the top 25.

Drake sits at 10-4 with losses to Notre Dame, Iowa, Iowa State, and sdsu.

Creighton isn't nearly the team I had hoped they would be, 8-7 right now. Green Bay, Wichita State, Missouri State, and LMU also hovering around .500. Montana is 8-5. Incarnate Word and Grambling are terrible.

[kiyoat]

Jan 6, 2019 17:09:26 GMT -6 Yotes said:

Watching and rooting for our OOC opponents to help our resume:

Missouri won at #10 Tennessee today, improving to 13-3 on the year. They haven't lost since we took them down.

#25 Iowa State keeps rolling with a win over Kansas to improve to 12-2. Their other loss is to #19 Iowa.

Indiana still has just the one (baffling!) loss, won today against #15 Michigan State. Sitting at 14-1 and threatening to crack the top 25.

Drake sits at 10-4 with losses to Notre Dame, Iowa, Iowa State, and sdsu.

Creighton isn't nearly the team I had hoped they would be, 8-7 right now. Green Bay, Wichita State, Missouri State, and LMU also hovering around .500. Montana is 8-5. Incarnate Word and Grambling are terrible.

Good stuff.  Looks like our current RPI after the win over SDSU is #16, with one more projected loss on the season (@ Frost), so we are projected to #38

The Jacks are now #36, projected to win out, and projected to #37.

So both teams squarely on/just inside the bubble.

[gopheryote]

My concern at this point for getting 2 bids at this point is not whether both teams are worthy (they are), but rather the way the committee views the SL. If the Yotes drop the next 2 against SDSU, I think they will be OK. But if SDSU loses to the Yotes, they will have at least 7 losses and be 4-7 against teams in the top 100. Not sure that gets them in, based on how the human portion of the committee works.

[kiyoat]

Jan 6, 2019 17:09:26 GMT -6 Yotes said:

Watching and rooting for our OOC opponents to help our resume:

Missouri won at #10 Tennessee today, improving to 13-3 on the year. They haven't lost since we took them down.

#25 Iowa State keeps rolling with a win over Kansas to improve to 12-2. Their other loss is to #19 Iowa.

Indiana still has just the one (baffling!) loss, won today against #15 Michigan State. Sitting at 14-1 and threatening to crack the top 25.

Drake sits at 10-4 with losses to Notre Dame, Iowa, Iowa State, and sdsu.

Creighton isn't nearly the team I had hoped they would be, 8-7 right now. Green Bay, Wichita State, Missouri State, and LMU also hovering around .500. Montana is 8-5. Incarnate Word and Grambling are terrible.

[Yotes]

Looks like we got a 22nd place and 25th place vote for those 5 points. We had 7 before the Denver loss, I’m surprised we only dropped 2 votes.

[kiyoat]

Update on our non-conference opponents (that have an out sized affect on our RPI)

RPI Team--------W/L(conference)
#3  Iowa State -13-2(3-0)$
#11 Drake -------9-4(2-0)$#
#16 Indiana-----14-2(3-1)$#
#27 Missouri----14-3(3-0)$
#48 Green Bay --7-6(3-1)~
#74 Montana-----7-5(3-1)~
#83 Creighton----8-8(2-3)~
#98 Loy MaryMt -9-7(2-2)~
#129 Grambling -5-9(2-0)#
#140 Missouri St 6-7(2-1)
#244 Wichita St -7-6(1-0)
#290 Incarnate 1-12(1-1)

Key:
$ = projected at-large NCAA selection
# = projected auto-bid qualifier
~ = projected WNIT selection

Not bad!  Lots of teams doing well in conference play.  Potentially 3 conference champs, 5 NCAA teams, 4 WNIT teams.  Drake and Grambling being projected to win their conferences are not a big surprise.  Indiana is.  They are killing it in the Big 10.

[kiyoat]

Stat time.

So there has been a lot of talk in the media about how this Women's Coyote team has limited their last 5 opponents to 50 or fewer points.  That is obviously very impressive.  Devil's advocate might say: "yeah, but the opponents have been the worst in the Summit".  In the last 5 games we have played UNO twice, Fort Wayne, UND, and WIU.  Aside from Western, they aren't the best of the conference.

So, I thought I'd do a comparison of the first 5 conference games and the last 5, and compare our defensive performance
Against each team's conference averages.  That should give a more fair perspective.  I'm guessing it will still show an impressive run from our "Pestering Pack" defense.  Here goes: (next post)

[kiyoat]

Stats for each opponent's points scored vs. their conference average:

Opponent-Point differential
@ndsu---(-18.6)
@denver-(+25.5)
SDSU-----(+17.0)
PFW--------(-6.2)
@oru-----(+0.5)

Average---(+3.6)

@uno-----(-8.4)
@und----(-18.4)
WIU------(-30.1)
@pfw-----(-8.2)
UNO------(-24.4)

Average--(-17.9)

So even against those teams' own averages our defense is just destroying teams.  Many of the recent games could have been an even greater scoring margin, as we called off the dogs.

[kiyoat]

Stats for each opponent's shooting efficiency against the Yotes vs. their conference average (in percentage point difference)

Note: I rounded up to whole percentage points for my own sanity

Opponent-shooting %
@ndsu----(-12/-12)
@denver-(+20/+17)
SDSU-----(+00/-12)
PFW------(+05/+06)
@oru----(+05/+08)

Average---(+3.6/+3.6)

@uno---(+02/+00)
@und----(-17/-21)
WIU------(-20/-05)
@pfw----(+00/+02)
UNO------(-12/-11)

Average--(-9.4/-7.0)

So this is huge.  In the first 5 games we allowed our opponents to shoot 3.6% better than their conference average, both in FG% and 3PT%.  In the last 5 games we have limited them to almost 10% worse than their average FG , and 7% worse in 3PT shooting!  Wow.

[usdtator]

Feb 8, 2019 11:22:42 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

Stats for each opponent's shooting efficiency against the Yotes vs. their conference average (in percentage point difference)

Note: I rounded up to whole percentage points for my own sanity

Opponent-shooting %
@ndsu----(-12/-12)
@denver-(+20/+17)
SDSU-----(+00/-12)
PFW------(+05/+06)
@oru----(+05/+08)

Average---(+3.6/+3.6)

@uno---(+02/+00)
@und----(-17/-21)
WIU------(-20/-05)
@pfw----(+00/+02)
UNO------(-12/-11)

Average--(-9.4/-7.0)

So this is huge.  In the first 5 games we allowed our opponents to shoot 3.6% better than their conference average, both in FG% and 3PT%.  In the last 5 games we have limited them to almost 10% worse than their average FG , and 7% worse in 3PT shooting!  Wow.

Stats nerds make me very happy!!! Thanks for taking the time to compile all this info every week.