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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 10, 2021 22:00:53 GMT -6
As a program and as a fan base we cannot be afraid to talk playoffs. So why not dig into it a bit.
The way I look at it the Coyotes should have at least a 50% chance if they can finish 7-4 and 5-3 in this conference. They have put themselves in position to have a realistic chance. Now is not the time to relax because the UNI game with a win will put the Yotes in a really good position. Without a win it gets a bit more dicey but still possible.
So here is the upcoming schedule.
at Northern Iowa (this might be the game that really puts the Coyotes over the top with a win)
vs Illinois State
at Western Illinois
vs South Dakota State
at North Dakota State
I look at the Illinois State and Western Illinois games as the games that probably need to be wins. If that happens the Coyotes will likely only need to win one of the other 3 games. It is not a good idea to count on the game in Fargo to need go down in the win column. Better take care of business and not need to rely on this one.
South Dakota State really blew it against Southern Illinois so a win becomes not quite as unlikely as it may have a week ago. I also wouldn't like to need to rely on a win here either but the chances are better than needing to win in Fargo.
The best way to avoid a less than desirable situation is to beat UNI and really put the Coyotes in a good spot. UND and UNI are two teams that it would be nice to have tie breaker wins against because those are the teams that the Coyotes may be compared against for an at large bid.
If we want to be really greedy get wins against the next 4 opponents and a top 8 seed isn't out of the question at all. I think that is probably asking too much but it never hurts to dream a little.
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Post by captaincoyote on Oct 11, 2021 13:24:36 GMT -6
I'm right with you. We have to avoid slip ups. Our next three games are the most winnable remaining. Win them and the team can go into the state game ready for a street fight but still a little loose knowing that the post-season isn't likely riding on the outcome. Lose to UNI and the need to clamp down the rest of the way may cause us to play too tight.
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Post by easmus on Oct 11, 2021 13:45:53 GMT -6
I am not sure if 7-4 (5-3) guarantees we get into the playoffs if the conference wins are over Indy St, UND, UNI, Illinois St, & WIU. It might depend on what MO St and does down the stretch. We all know everyone beats each other up.
Long way to go though and you can only play them one at a time. Go beat UNI and it will all sort itself out.
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Post by yoteforever on Oct 11, 2021 14:32:16 GMT -6
ONE GAME AT A TIME…..PERIOD
Every game we have left is winnable. It’s also losable ( is that a word even? )
Take care of business but have a damn good time doing it. Don’t tighten up and worry about things you can’t control. That’s been our problem in the past.
LUNCH BUCKET MENTALITY. And to tell you the truth I think that’s exactly what we have going on.
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Post by easmus on Oct 11, 2021 14:46:52 GMT -6
The fact they have several super seniors on the roster has to be making a big impact.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 19, 2021 23:28:44 GMT -6
So here are the current MVFC standings S. Illinois 4-0, 6-1 NDSU 3-0, 6-0 South Dakota 3-1, 5-2 Missouri State 3-1, 4-2 SDSU 2-1, 5-1 ----------------------- UNI 1-2 Youngstown St 1-2 Indiana St 1-3 Western Ill 1-3 Illinois St 0-3 North Dakota 0-3 I divided the group in half. If the season ended today the top half probably makes the playoffs and the bottom half likely not. 3 teams are really sitting good at this point and would take a pretty good meltdown for them to miss. SDSU's blowout of Colorado State gives them something the Yotes don't have and NDSU and SIU are both undefeated in the Valley. Right now Missouri State has the head to head tie breaker over the Coyotes. The good news is that their schedule is brutal from here on out. @ndsu, vs UND, @s Ill, vs UNI. The Coyotes will probably have to gain at least one game on them but that is certainly possible. There is certainly a chance that both them and SD make it but if one slips they could find themselves on the outside looking in. Right now Missouri State might be in the most danger or doing that based on their schedule. But however you look at it both of these teams will be competing against each other for a spot. I find the SDSU situation interesting. If the Coyotes and Jacks end up tied in the MVFC standings and SD gets the head to head tie breaker the Jacks IMO would get the nod for 1 fewer loss overall and the big win vs Colorado State. When I say nod I mean for seeding purposes more than likely instead of who gets in. If the Coyotes beat the Jacks their ticket would almost certainly be punched. I believe the Coyotes need to finish 1 game higher in the MVFC standings (and the H2H) to get the higher seed overall. So it might be a good thing to root for NDSU or UND in the head to head. That is unless the Coyotes win out than rooting for NDSU to lose would be a good thing. I am not quite confident enough that the Coyotes will go into Fargo and win just yet so I am probably going to root for NDSU in that head to head. Here are the Jacks remaining games. vs UNI, @ysu, vs NDSU, usd, vs UND. If the Coyotes lone loss is @ndsu than if they beat the Jacks than SDSU would only need one other loss in that group. Southern Illinois has a pretty easy schedule left. @uni, vs Mizzo St, @in St, vs YSU. Considering that the Coyotes won't play them it will be difficult for the Coyotes to pass them up unless they win out. UND not quite pulling off the upset last week put SIU in very good shape. NDSU would likely have to lose to SD at home for them to really matter. I am not gonna break them down too much but they haven't really been as dominant this year as they have in years past. The Coyotes have a change to win in Fargo but I wouldn't put that chance as anything I want to rely on. The Coyotes need to take care of their business prior to this game and instead try to win this one to improve their positioning instead of relying on it to get into the playoff period. So the Coyotes are in a good position right now. There is an outside chance they could be seeded (top 8 teams) in the playoffs but they would have to finish at minimum 6-2 in the MVFC for that to happen and if SIU and NDSU finish higher I don't think 3 Valley teams will be seeded. If the Coyotes run the table and finish 7-1 in the MVFC they would not only be seeded but be in the conversation for home field advantage until at least the semi-finals but in my opinion they could probably be at home all the way through. Obviously this is a one week at a time season and looking too far ahead is probably not something to focus too much on but for the fans that is what message boards are for. The most likely scenario is to try to end the drought of not hosting a playoff game since the 80's. If the Coyotes finish 7-4 they would be in the conversation for a home game. If they finish 8-3 it would improve the chances. I am not sure but I don't think the more deserving team or higher seed would necessarily host. If the Coyotes are competing against a team like Montana even if they have the better resume the Grizzlies with their attendance and tradition might steal the home game away from the Coyotes. Maybe that has changed but the low attendance at home games may end up costing the Coyotes that home game. I hope that isn't the case but I think it just might be. Politics, Politics, Politics. I wish they wouldn't keep the first round games (or further) regional as that can hurt the MVFC and Big Sky teams that should be playing teams from weaker conferences. The fact that this conversation can even happen this year is somewhat of a minor miracle as it is. Go Coyotes!!! |
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Post by nccyote on Oct 20, 2021 9:15:07 GMT -6
Win the next 2 and we're in, period.
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Post by yoteforever on Oct 20, 2021 10:10:39 GMT -6
Win the next 2 and we're in, period. I agree but the playoffs should not be the focus. If we take care of business the correct way, and have that one game at a time mentality, we should be focusing on winning this league. I’m not saying we will, but I am saying we can. If we take care of business the playoffs are the frosting. I want to win a title. Period. After that….frosting. |
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Post by Yote 53 on Oct 20, 2021 10:50:55 GMT -6
Looking at remaining schedules, SIU has a much easier inside track to the conference title. Need MSU to beat them but drop one or two of their other games.
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Post by Yotes on Oct 20, 2021 11:28:57 GMT -6
Agreed on setting the goal at a league title.
Take care of business at home against Illinois State.
Rest up, get healthy the following week to prepare for a road trip to Macomb where we always have had trouble.
Come back home and remind everyone SD is a red state.
Head to Fargo with a shot at the title.
You get there one day at a time.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 20, 2021 18:29:06 GMT -6
Win the next 2 and we're in, period. I agree but the playoffs should not be the focus. If we take care of business the correct way, and have that one game at a time mentality, we should be focusing on winning this league. I’m not saying we will, but I am saying we can. If we take care of business the playoffs are the frosting. I want to win a title. Period. After that….frosting. I agree with this and here is my reasoning. Nothing is a given and who knows what future years will bring. They may be good and they may not. The bottom line is that this team is good this year and SD needs to get the most out of this season as possible. Just because the team hasn't really "been there" much in FCS doesn't mean we should be happy just to get one road playoff game and call it good. This team should strive to get a top 8 seed. That is a tough thing to do but should be the goal. I like the attitude of "lets play for the here and now". The time has become now. Sometimes I think there can be a mentality when a program has not been good that it is ok to just settle for being "just good" and not great because "there will always be a next year". But there may not. It already happened when we had Streveler. I hope the future takes a brighter turn after this year than under Chris but one just never knows. When the opportunity is there in sports a team needs to run with it. |
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Post by Yote 53 on Oct 20, 2021 20:16:07 GMT -6
I honestly feel this team and program is built for the long haul. Hate the saying but the Coyotes are passing the "eye test". They just look bigger, faster, stronger, and more athletic than the opponents I've seen lately.
That said, I temper my expectations. Too many Charlie Brown moments with Lucy pulling the football away.
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Post by elcoyote on Oct 20, 2021 22:03:20 GMT -6
It's just really nice to be going into games with high expectations and to even be talking playoffs at this point in the season.
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Post by nccyote on Oct 21, 2021 7:44:52 GMT -6
I agree but the playoffs should not be the focus. If we take care of business the correct way, and have that one game at a time mentality, we should be focusing on winning this league. I’m not saying we will, but I am saying we can. If we take care of business the playoffs are the frosting. I want to win a title. Period. After that….frosting. I agree with this and here is my reasoning. Nothing is a given and who knows what future years will bring. They may be good and they may not. The bottom line is that this team is good this year and SD needs to get the most out of this season as possible. Just because the team hasn't really "been there" much in FCS doesn't mean we should be happy just to get one road playoff game and call it good. This team should strive to get a top 8 seed. That is a tough thing to do but should be the goal. I like the attitude of "lets play for the here and now". The time has become now. Sometimes I think there can be a mentality when a program has not been good that it is ok to just settle for being "just good" and not great because "there will always be a next year". But there may not. It already happened when we had Streveler. I hope the future takes a brighter turn after this year than under Chris but one just never knows. When the opportunity is there in sports a team needs to run with it. 100% agree with both CF and YF. I'm not saying that the goal should be to just make the playoffs, or be above .500 in conference or anything small peanuts like that. I was simply stating IMO that if we win the next 2 we make the post season. The goal is and always should be conference title, then national title. Every.....single.....year. We must maximize this years' roster this year. No counting on "we were good this year with a lot of freshman, just wait until next year" stuff. Win the damn thing now and worry about next season...next season. This roster is good enough to win the Valley this year. That is priority #1. |
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Post by yoteforever on Oct 21, 2021 8:20:55 GMT -6
Yes it is…we’ll said. And for what it’s worth I didn’t interpret your post as being satisfied with just that. In fact I agreed with it. We are all on the same page.
Someone said it best. We are built different. We aren’t flashy, we just play every down. Hard. We’ve been beat twice but even in those losses we played till the clock said 00:00. Sometimes teams jus have to learn how to win. This team is doing that.
That defense has been outstanding. Nothing short. The offensive line has done a 180. Camp is growing each game. And our freshman running backs not only replaced Kai Henry, they’ve performed so well many people don’t remember his name. Or his attitude.
Someone did a cleansing on this team. Changes this drastic aren’t the result of one but rather several leaders. One game at a time.
Next up: Illinois State
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