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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Jan 4, 2022 12:24:34 GMT -6
I told you that Oklahoma loss wasn't going to end up looking too bad.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 4, 2022 12:53:55 GMT -6
I told you that Oklahoma loss wasn't going to end up looking too bad. I took a look at one of the OU message boards after the USD game, and there were a few posters that were really upset and embarrassed that they almost lost to the Yotes. Some posters were already panning the new hire, and how bad the team was going to be under her... I guess fan overreactions happen. |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 5, 2022 8:17:26 GMT -6
Getting warmer... the mid-major pollsters moved us up from #16 to #9, and now finally have the Jacks back in at #25.
Personally, I'd have the Yotes anywhere from #3 to #5, but I guess I'll stop b!t@hing now. Only way to get that respect is to keep winning.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2022 11:27:18 GMT -6
Getting warmer... the mid-major pollsters moved us up from #16 to #9, and now finally have the Jacks back in at #25. Personally, I'd have the Yotes anywhere from #3 to #5, but I guess I'll stop b!t@hing now. Only way to get that respect is to keep winning. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in this list. There are 3 teams in the top 10 that are not even top 100 in the NET ranking. |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 9, 2022 11:35:45 GMT -6
After the big win over SDSU, we are now:
#32 NET! (up from #39)
#34 RPI (same as before)
#56 net efficiency (up from #71)
I have to assume our "net efficiency" will only increase, but we will need it to, as our strength of schedule takes a nosedive. All in all, I can't help but think the prognosticators that keep saying an at-large is off the table... are wrong. We currently have two quadrant 1 wins, Creighton and Drake.
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seayote
Sophomore Member
Posts: 186
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Post by seayote on Jan 9, 2022 11:57:08 GMT -6
After the big win over SDSU, we are now: #32 NET! (up from #39) #34 RPI (same as before) #56 net efficiency (up from #71) I have to assume our "net efficiency" will only increase, but we will need it to, as our strength of schedule takes a nosedive. All in all, I can't help but think the prognosticators that keep saying an at-large is off the table... are wrong. We currently have two quadrant 1 wins, Creighton and Drake. Of the top 101 schools in the newest NET ranking, only one has a losing record - #69 SDSU at 7-8. Their only semi-impressive win was vs. UCLA, who continues to trend downward in the NET...currently #66. |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 11, 2022 9:57:33 GMT -6
Drake has now fallen on hard times, ... lost 3 of last 4, including losses to NET#204 Indiana State, #101 Loyola-Chicago and #239 Valpo! Not great. We can no longer count them as a Quad-1 win. Now our win over Creighton is it.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 11, 2022 15:44:32 GMT -6
New bracketology has us up to a 10-seed!, taking on Oklahoma in the Bloomington, IN sub-region... pretty sure they wouldn't set up a re-match. Playing Indy in the 2nd round would be cool, though.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Jan 12, 2022 3:01:36 GMT -6
Advance warning this is simply a critical post not a poke at the Coyotes. Right now this team is firing on every cylinder.
Right now the NET is looking pretty good. The Coyotes really throttle teams that they are supposed to beat. IMO the Coyotes may need to win the Summit and do so undefeated and get to the final of the Summit tourney. Than maybe they have a shot at an at large bid. What worries me though is the lack of quality wins. It is great to play a really tough schedule but more or those games needed to be wins, or at least possibly that could be the case. No matter how many points the Yotes win against the Summit may or may not be enough. Pittsburgh is struggling in the ACC right now at 0-4 so it would help if they would start winning more in their conference. I guess my question is, does it really matter how a good a team is if the Coyotes lost against that team? In my opinion it matters more to me who the Coyotes beat. If they lose it is just a loss simple as that. Of course Oklahoma is having a good year but the Coyotes lost that game. What does that really count for. I believe that is kind of the swing game right now as far as the at large goes. That is why it was such a crucial game early in the season and it was at home. If that would have been a win I think the case is bolstered quite a bit more.
At this point it could go either way but the goal is to win the Summit tourney and make it irrelevant. If they have zero or one loss and win the tourney I think somewhere between a 8-10 seed is probably where they would fall.
I have always had the opinion that it is not the schedule given but how the schedule is played that matters. To the positive the Coyotes are completing dominating their conference right now. Just thumping everyone. The downside is the losses against the Power teams. The Yotes are a very tough team to analyze this year. I could see many different opinions on them from people on the selection committee.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 12, 2022 7:04:49 GMT -6
The lack of quality wins certainly could be a factor if we don’t win the SLT. If the NET ranking is high enough, though, it might negate that deficiency somewhat.
In the past the committee leaned heavily on the RPI, despite it’s flaws. The other factors only came into play for bubble teams. I’m going to assume that is still the case, but just replace RPI with NET.
So get off the bubble and we win.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Jan 12, 2022 16:05:26 GMT -6
A loss in the SLT is a death knell. Just the way it is this year.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 12, 2022 17:15:41 GMT -6
A loss in the SLT is a death knell. Just the way it is this year. Maybe. Maybe not. I hope we won't have to find out. In the past, no matter what we did the RPI would slowly erode through the conference season due to a mid-major conference SOS. With the NET the "net efficiency" can counteract a declining SOS and keep us floating at a high ranking, or even increase. That's what I saw last year, anyway. |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 14, 2022 10:53:30 GMT -6
Here are the changes immediately following our 28-point win over #294 Denver:
RPI drops -----#36 to #41 (all about 2/3 SOS 1/3 Win%)
net eff. jumps #52 to #42 (all about point margin)
NET maintains #34 to #35
I like the way this NET formula balances SOS with a team's game performance (not just W/L). This is the breaking point where the RPI drops below the NET, and that gap is only going to widen. The RPI was really really bad for mid-majors.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Jan 15, 2022 0:21:21 GMT -6
The Summit League is brutal and other than the Coyotes it just isn't getting any better. SDSU is taking a step backwards at least a little. NDSU is taking a big step backwards but they really only had one big step forward so they are evening out. The Summit League hurts the Coyote program. They fit so much better in the MVC but that may never happen. It is getting to the point where fans might not come as often to Summit home games because the Coyotes are blowing out teams by 30 points or more per game. Often these games are over by halftime and it might be human nature just to assume a big win in every conference home game.
I really give this program credit for bringing their game every night in conference play. It would be very easy to get lackadaisical but somehow that is not happening.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 17, 2022 9:30:34 GMT -6
updated standings and NET opponents matrix on OP...
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