WNIT 3rd Round - Michigan State at South Dakota

[Coyote Fan]

It was just announced that the Coyotes are hosting. YYYYESSS!!!

[hoopsmom]

Michigan State scares me - specifically Sidney Cooks and Nia Hollie. Cooks played North Tartan with Hannah and Maddie, but they had her playing up a couple years because of her skill. She played with Arike Ogunbowale, Maddie Guebert, Alex Wittinger, TeeTee Starks, etc...

[elcoyote]

Mar 18, 2018 14:22:07 GMT -6 hoopsmom said:

Michigan State scares me - specifically Sidney Cooks and Nia Hollie. Cooks played North Tartan with Hannah and Maddie, but they had her playing up a couple years because of her skill. She played with Arike Ogunbowale, Maddie Guebert, Alex Wittinger, TeeTee Starks, etc...

That's what makes games like these so much fun. These big dog P5 teams come in here and tend to look down their noses at us. Hasn't always worked out so well for them in the past, and I hope that continues into the near future. 

[kiyoat]

In the WNIT:
1. USD is 10-1 at home, 1-3 on the road.
2. USD is 1-1 against the Big Ten, both road games.

I'm not saying this next game will be a slam dunk.  There really aren't many scrub teams in the WNIT.  The "tier one" top-16 teams have mostly all advanced.  The Round-of-16, or Third round will be stacked with the best teams in the tournament.  Michigan State, our likely opponent, is the second-best team in the tournament, based on my composite ranking.

We are VERY fortunate to get them at home.

[coyoteglory]

Kiyoat, who is the best team? Us?

[kiyoat]

Massey predictions for possible matchups:

USD hosting Michigan State:
USD wins 71-69 with 54% chance of winning
(MSU wins 67-72 with 66% chance if @ MSU)

USD hosting Toledo:
USD wins 70-59 with a 85% chance of winning
(USD wins 67-61 with a 67% chance if @ Toledo)

[kiyoat]

Mar 19, 2018 8:19:42 GMT -6 coyoteglory said:

Kiyoat, who is the best team? Us?

Here's my mock-composite rankings, based on the WNIT's own criterea, for the top-tier teams:


Rnk---Team (equivalent seed)
39----West Virginia (1)
50----Michigan State (1)
53----Ball State (1)
53----Virginia Tech (1)

54----Georgia Tech (2)
55----Indiana (2)
56----TCU (2)
60----UCF (2)

61----USD (3)
61----Purdue (3)
64----Drexel (3)
66----St. John's (3)

68----Penn (4)
72----Kansas State (4)
72----Utah (4)
76----IUPUI (4)

Upper Part of Tier II: (middle 32 teams)

77----Alabama (5)
77----James Madison (5)
78----Wright State (5)
80----Duquesne (5)

So if we play Michigan State it would be similar to a "1 vs. 2" or "1 vs. 3" match-up.  A sweet-16 game is typically 1 vs. 4, so it's not that far from normal.

Toledo's composite ranking would be #112.  Houston was #92.  WIU was #96.  CSU was #121.  If we get by MSU/Toledo we would play #56 TCU or #88 New Mexico (Hannah's old team), or #115 Rice.

[Coyote Fan]

With 4:37 to go in the 3rd quarter Toledo leads Michigan State 40-38. Guess we better not assume a match up with the Spartans just yet.

[hoopsmom]

Michigan is up by 1 early in the fourth quarter

[yoteforever]

Bring em on

[Coyote Fan]

Michigan State wins 68-66.

[elcoyote]

Good! Love it when the P5 teams have to come to Vermtown. It'll sure be different from what they're used to.

[kiyoat]

Comparing team stats over the season between a Summit team and a Big Ten team is a little bit apples to oranges, but I thought I'd at least take a look:

Things they do very well:

18.0 Assists/game---(#12 Nationally)
1.16 Assist/TO Ratio-(#40)
74.8 Points/game----(#42)

+5.7 Rebound margin-(#44)
41 Rebounds/game----(#52)
4.4 Blocks/game-------(#48)

Things they don't do as well:

19 Personal Fouls / game-(#279)
34% 3-PT Defense--------(#277)
41% FG Defense----------(#212)
67.8 Points Allowed-------(#240)

[kiyoat]

^^ Looks like they have a good offense, but average shooting efficiency. I'm guessing they get a good volume of shots either from playing fast, forcing turnovers, or rebounding well (or all three).

Their size at post/forward should make rebounding and scoring in the paint a challenge. We may have a good opportunity to get a lot of arc shots, but I don't like relying on that in a big game. You never know when you might have an off-night.

Drawing fouls could prove to be important in this game. They foul a lot and we shoot well from the line  Tournament games are called a little looser, though.  MSU only had 13 personal fouls in the last game, compared to a season average of 19.

[flagshipU]

Reported attendance at the game last night was 2,144. It would be great if we could get around 4,000 (or more) at the game Thursday. I doubt MSU would be expecting an environment like that.