Montana

[coyotecrazie5]

8/31/19 @ 2PM DAKOTADOME
TV: MIDCOSN | ESPN+ RADIO: KVHT 106.3

Montana was 6-5 last year and played 2 MVFC teams. Week 1 they defeated UNI 26-23 at home and lost to WIU 27-31 in Macomb on Sept 15th
They are picked 4th in the coaches preseason Big Sky poll and 5th in the media poll

2018 RECORD
UNI W 26-23
DRAKE W 48-16
@ WIU L 27-31
SACRAMENTO ST W 41-34
@cal POLY W 48-28
PORTLAND ST L 20-22
@ UND L 14-41
UC DAVIS L 21-49
@ SOUTHERN UTAH W 57-14
@ IDAHO W 46-27
MONTANA ST L 25-29


2019 Big Sky Preseason Football Team
Preseason Defensive MVP: Dante Olson, LB, Montana

Offense
WR: Samuel Akem, Jr., Montana

Defense
ILB: Dante Olson, Sr., Montana
ST: Jace Lewis, Jr., Montana


MESSAGE BOARD: egriz.com/grizboard/index.php



Here is a breakdown from a poster on egriz egriz.com/south-dakota-coyotes-scouting-report/

General Stats

Passing yards per game USD (285.8 for USD vs 271.7 for UM)
Rushing yards per game Montana (125.4 for USD vs 162.4 for UM)
Total offense Montana (411.2 for USD vs 435.9 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game USD (219.2 for USD vs 238.1 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (211.1 for USD vs 179.2 for UM)
Total defense Montana (430.3 for USD vs 417.3 for UM)

Looks like a 3-3 tie in what statistically appears to be a general wash in most major statistics here.

Offense points scored Montana (26.7 for USD vs 33.9 for UM)
Defense points allowed Montana (34.2 for USD vs 28.5 for UM)
Turnover margin Push – both teams finished -3
Fieldgoal % Montana (70% for USD vs 76% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (5.1 yards for USD vs 9.2 yards for UM)
Kick Returns Montana (19.7 yards for USD vs 24.7 yards for UM)
T.O.P. Montana (27:18 for USD vs 28:16 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) USD (63% USD / 70% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (59% USD / 60% UM)
3rd down offense Push – both at 40%
3rd down defense USD – (36% allowed for USD vs 39% allowed for UM)

Montana picks up 7, USD adds 3 and there’s 2 push.

Total comes to Montana 10 – USD 6 – Push 2.

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Keys to a Grizzly victory

1. Keep Simmons in check. This guy is what makes this offense go and we’re going to see some eerie similarities to what Sneed can do for the Griz. He’s going to work to spread out the defense and then beat us from time to time with his feet. The Grizzly defense is going to be tested right away with maybe one of the 3 or 4 best QBs they’ll see all season. I never expect perfect games from either sides in the opener, but this defense is going to have to be ready right away to get tested a lot.

2. Test that USD defense. With a new DC there’s presumably some amounts of unknown of what the Griz will see. Presumably USD won’t run a similar scheme to their porous defense they had last year so we’ll have to see what’s thrown our way. In theory the running game could have some opportunities… but who will be the guy carrying the rock for us? This is going to be a tough immediate test for Montana, going against a pretty big unknown right away.

3. Let JLM & Flowers go off. USD statistically didn’t cover punts or kicks well last year. While presumably a change in season should bring improvements and a focus on efficiency, the stats suggest our two dudes in the return game could have a fun day. I’m going to assume USD is going to put up some points, so being able to flip the field on kickoffs will be big. Additionally it always seems like teams kick to our dangerous returners more than they should earlier on in the season.

4. Show improvement on the OL. If this Grizzly team wants to improve from a few years of mediocrity, get back to the playoffs, and really get that RTD going, it has to start with the OL. We’re gong to see a heavily re-vamped OL and if they can help open running lanes, and keep Sneed from getting wrecked all the time, this offense could go off.

5. Win the turnover battle. This carries over from last season, when the Griz won in turnovers, they usually won the game. When they didn’t, they lost.

6. Flip those RZ and 3rd down stats. USD seems to be fairly efficient on 3rd down and scoring when in the red zone. They’ll provide a challenge for this Grizzly defense and the Griz will need to put a dent in their efficiency.

7. 40+ points. Both teams return a ton of skilled experience on offense, have some new faces on the OL, and have defenses that come in with some gaps, unknowns, and questions. This feels like it could be a shoot out.

8. Win in the 4th quarter. Holy crap, please. 4 of the 5 Griz losses last season they had the lead in the 4th. A lot of that was attributed to inexperience. That shouldn’t be the case as much now.
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This game feels like a total toss-up to me. I think each offense can go stride for stride in this game. USD has a proven pass-rush, while the Griz have more experience and skill at LB and DB. To have what appears to be such an evenly matched game (on paper) right away is awfully intriguing.

Of course the challenge with early games is that sometimes one (or both) teams come out the gate a little slow. If that happens here for the Griz, they could be in big trouble. Likewise for USD, it could turn into a very similar type of game like the Griz had against UNI last season.

I’m excited to see this team show off what it’s been working on this off-season. No we won’t see it all right away, but I feel they’re well prepared, well lead, and are going to get out of South Dakota with a hard fought win. They could very well win it on their last possession… I’ll say the Griz take the day 41-38.

[elcoyote]

This is a very thorough, and I think accurate, pregame analysis. It seems he's the only one over on egriz that gives use any kind of chance at all in this game though. Most of them think that they're about to unleash a buzz saw both offensively and defensively and they're going to come in here and run roughshod over us.
I hope their team feels the same way and they overlook and underestimate us. In my opinion, this is going to be a even, hard fought game that comes down to the wire. Really glad it's in the dome too.

[Yote 53]

[Yote 53]

Aug 23, 2019 22:29:18 GMT -6 elcoyote said:

This is a very thorough, and I think accurate, pregame analysis. It seems he's the only one over on egriz that gives use any kind of chance at all in this game though. Most of them think that they're about to unleash a buzz saw both offensively and defensively and they're going to come in here and run roughshod over us.
I hope their team feels the same way and they overlook and underestimate us. In my opinion, this is going to be a even, hard fought game that comes down to the wire. Really glad it's in the dome too.

The only team I can remember, in years, that has run us over in the Dome is NDSU last year, and that might have been the best Bison team ever. No way Montana comes in and blows us out. In fact, O predict we win a close but comfortable one.

Montana fans are like UNI fans, they live in the past. The FCS world has changed. Good team, just like UNI, but the days of just coming in and running over teams are over.

[notsoeasy]

USD is a 4.5 pt favorite. Is Montana that bad? Saw this on another board:

Here are some recent results coming from The GAM Research Headquarters:

Montana @ University South Dakota
August 31, 2 PM
Vermillion, SD: DakotaDome

PREDICTED WINNER: Montana Grizzlies -2.5
OVER/UNDER: 61
MYTHICAL SCORE: USD 27 GRIZZLIES 29

Be careful if you are going. Ticket prices are up and this is one of America’s 50 most dangerous cities with the stadium in a very bad area.  Can’t be too careful in a violent city that protects criminals through sanctuary policies and practices that amount to no more than legalized discrimination based on race and income.  college “orientation” classes will confuse a normal person that has been poorly educated in America’s dysfunctional and destructive public schools.  Don’t be too eager to please your “superiors”.  They could care less about you. 

www.amren.com/news/2019/08/managerial-revolution-elite-theory-immigration/

[coyotecrazie5]

Good to see lakes got out of the institution.

[Yotes]

Aug 26, 2019 6:42:30 GMT -6 coyotecrazie5 said:

Good to see lakes got out of the institution.

Got a hunch this is Aldewitt's other alter ego. Must have lost his password to the first one he made. No one else would be so desperate to strike up a conversation about a fundamentally flawed scoring model and the notion that Dinkytown is dangerous.

[yodayote]

This is a huge game for the Coyotes, Montana has been a solid football program over the years who should not be taken lightly. In the last 6 seasons Montana has a 46-27 record. At home they have a large stadium with great attendance and it has lead to a home field advantage of 30-9 over the last 6 seasons. On the road over that same span they are 16-19. When you look at the 19 losses they had, almost all of them have been to teams that finished with a record over .500 for the season. When you look at the 16 wins, 15 of the 16 have been against teams that finished below .500 for the season, and the lone win to a team over .500 for the season was against Montana State (7-5) in 2013.

In short, they lose to good teams on the road and beat bad teams on the road. I am one who thinks that South Dakota will have a good season finish over .500, so to me this is a win 34-30.

[yoteforever]

Aug 26, 2019 8:43:45 GMT -6 yodayote said:

This is a huge game for the Coyotes, Montana has been a solid football program over the years who should not be taken lightly. In the last 6 seasons Montana has a 46-27 record. At home they have a large stadium with great attendance and it has lead to a home field advantage of 30-9 over the last 6 seasons. On the road over that same span they are 16-19. When you look at the 19 losses they had, almost all of them have been to teams that finished with a record over .500 for the season. When you look at the 16 wins, 15 of the 16 have been against teams that finished below .500 for the season, and the lone win to a team over .500 for the season was against Montana State (7-5) in 2013.

In short, they lose to good teams on the road and beat bad teams on the road. I am one who thinks that South Dakota will have a good season finish over .500, so to me this is a win 34-30.

Wow...great research. Certainly a strong parallel. I think your post says it all. I said earlier this is a huge game with playoff implications. With your post it certainly gives you an indication what type of season to expect.

Awesome post yoda

[easmus]

I do not believe this game will be a blowout for Montana. Only NDSU comes into the dome and does whatever they want. I expect a close game that could be a little sloppy.

[ontheyote]

This will be a very tight game. I don't know off the top of my head, but we have to have a very good opening day record. I know usually we aren't playing as quality of program as Montana, but I'm taking the yotes all the way here. 34 - 27.

[sportschic]

I think this will be a close game but USD will win due to the following:
1) New defensive scheme and coordinator makes it tough for an opposing team to plan and strategize against.
2) Montana will have to make a lot of offensive adjustments during the game because of #1.
3) We are at home at the Dome.

USD 37 Montana 31

[coffeedrinker]

I'm predicting a double digit win for the Yotes. Griz weak area is their OL and our strength is our DL plus we have an experienced secondary. The new Defensive scheme will not have the affect that many think it will because their QB is so experienced, but it will have an effect on their receivers finding openings early. This advantage will lessen as the game goes on. Three sacks will result. The key will be containing their QB, keeping him from running and that will be up to a question mark for us, our LB's. We know Jake Cochrane will do his part but the rest are new, even with the transfers.

[azsod73]

They haven't posted the game notes with the "2 Deep" for Montana. I thought they used to post that on the Monday before the game or am I not remembering correctly?

[yodayote]

I would guess that would come today.