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Post by Yotes on Nov 14, 2021 21:08:09 GMT -6
Our players have moved onto the next foe and so am I. Saturday brings a trip to Fargo with USD looking to claim their first MVFC title. A win would also likely be enough to push us into a top 8 seed and bye in the first round of the playoffs. The committee likes teams that finish strong. Winning 6 of your last 7 and two in a row against the xDSUs may be classified as finishing strong.
NDSU comes in at 9-1 (6-1) and a top 5 ranking. Their record and ranking might look the same as usual, but they are not invincible by any means. NDSU was well on their way to getting blown out in Brookings last week before some late scores made the final score respectable. NDSU trailed MSU at home for nearly their entire game before squeaking out a 27-20 win. NDSU couldn't find the endzone against UND for the first 59 minutes of their game. NDSU was in a dogfight against UNI at home until the Panthers handed over two TDs to start the 2nd half.
Am I calling them a bad team? No. We can absolutely beat them though. Their offense isn't impressive. They are going to try and run it down our throats, and they've got a bunch of backs that they'll rotate in to stay fresh. We have been very good against the run this year. Even Strong for sdsu only had 52 yards on us until that late TD drive. My fear would be that we might break down late in the game again like that. If we can get some big plays on offense in the 1st half (like we have in so many games this year) and force them to throw the ball in the 2nd half then we can control this game.
As usual, you can watch on ESPN+, but it also looks like the broadcast is being picked up by KELO and KCLO (Rapid City) on their substations. Not sure what channel that might be on Midco. Would be 11.2 on the old TV antenna if you're close enough to Sioux Falls. They did this for the UNI game too. Happy to see road games getting onto broadcast TV in the local market for the fans.
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Post by Yotes on Nov 14, 2021 21:08:50 GMT -6
I will add that a win would mean co-champions. NDSU, USD, and MSU would all be tied and hold a 1-1 record against each other, giving all 3 legit claims. SIU could also get into this tie and be able to claim a title, but they went 0-1 against the group and played an obviously weaker schedule. I can't figure out how to do the tiebreaker on these scenarios. It doesn't really matter because the tiebreaker simply decides who gets the conference's automatic bid to the playoffs. I would have no problem claiming a title and would firmly believe we stand alone if we manage to sweep the Dakotas in the regular season.
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Post by easmus on Nov 14, 2021 21:19:10 GMT -6
Midco 2 also broadcasting the game with Jay Elsen and Andre Fields on the call.
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Post by yoteforever on Nov 14, 2021 21:21:30 GMT -6
Yesterday was a total blast, but now it’s time to start focusing on the Bison and winning a share of the MVFC title. I will say the exact thing about NDSU that I said about SDSU. Don’t buy in to their mystique. They are NOT invincible. This is a team that can and will be beat by the Coyotes. This years version of the Bison is not what you’ve been used to in the past. Are they good? Yep, no question about it. Are they dynamic? Not even close to Bison teams of past.
In fact I thoroughly believe that they are not the overall team we are, but it’s close. What concerns me more than anything is the FargoDome is a total hell hole to play in. The Bison fans understand they are difference makers. That place is so loud it’s unbelievable. Take our Dome at its loudest and you can easily double it in Fargo, and that’s for the entire game. I truly wished the USD fans could see what a true home field advantage is all about.
That being said, this game is for the taking. NDSU will be overconfident. They’ve already marked it down as a win. USD is truly a team, playing as a team. Our leaders on our team get it. They aren’t cocky or self serving. They just line up and play football. Even though I felt we were the better team Saturday we were fortunate to get the win. But the best team won, and now it’s time to validate that win we got against the Jacks with a road win in Fargo.
I’m not sure how seeding would work if there’s a 4 way tie for the title, but I’d like to think we’d have a good shot at getting seeded high. Doesn’t matter I guess. What matters is winning Saturday.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Nov 15, 2021 2:19:11 GMT -6
Well if the Coyotes win, the first thing I would look at if I were on a committee is the fact that the Coyotes will have pulled off the feat of beating the Jacks and Bison on back to back weeks. When was the last time that happened. That holds a whole lot of weight and if that happened the Coyotes should not just be a top 8 seed but a top 4.
But if I am a Bison fan I am saying not so fast. They are the favorites and deserve to be. I would be thinking about the Coyotes, you are good but are still kind of the new kid on the block. That does not mean I think the Coyotes can't pull it off but they are still the underdog. This Coyote team is the most equipped team to win in Fargo that I have ever seen. The team that actually won in Fargo a few years ago would get destroyed by this Coyote team.
It is kind of like the NDSU Women's Basketball team. They made a huge improvement last year but it would be the same as if they went into Vermillion and beat the Coyotes last year. That is the task that the Yotes have in football on Saturday.
But one thing is for sure and I would say any level headed fan would say whether USD or NDSU that this is likely to be a good game.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Nov 15, 2021 2:24:32 GMT -6
NDSU is good but they are not the type of team they were about 2 or 3 years ago. They are not nearly as dominant as they have been. What that does is just give the Coyotes a punchers chance. Meaning that NDSU may only be a 7 point favorite vs a 14+ point favorite they would have been 3 years ago.
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Post by bobo on Nov 15, 2021 7:05:37 GMT -6
A fast start is critical in this one to take the FargoDome out of the game. The recipe is out there for us and we’ve done it in previous games.
Slow down the run game early and often and get NDSU to dial up drop back pass plays they don’t want to in those situations. Their heavy play-action passes don’t work if they can’t run the ball effectively. They are not effective in spread formations with 3 or 4 WRs in the game. Put the game in their offensive coordinators hands to use his call sheet cuz he’s not very good unless it’s all working for him.
Get the ball to your playmakers (guys who can catch and run). We had a couple really nice vertical balls to Webb and one to Vander Esch vs SDSU, but our best WR didn’t even have a ball thrown his way until the 2nd to last drive of the game. Look at the stat sheet and see who gets yards after the catch and get it to them early and often. 5 yard hitches and slants to our outside WRs with no run after the catch, won’t do it. Attack the middle of the field. The NDSU defense is too good to think you can just put together 8-9 play drives consistently.
Run the rock! Even when it didn’t work the first time!! Be diverse in your run game, use short screens and passes as runs. Stay out of long yardage situations as much as possible. That’s when their defense is really good!
We can beat them, but it going to take a ultra fast start because they are battle tested. Take the FargoDome out of the game!
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Post by lakesbison on Nov 15, 2021 8:40:30 GMT -6
You guys wanna combine the 2 NDSU SUPER BOWL threads? I don't know which to reply to.
NDSU in their fans eyes have had a horrible season, yet here they are 9-1.
my only beef is our offensive playcalling, game plan & that we switched QBS in middle of season.
Cam will keep starting, but Quincy will wildcat & run about 5 plays this week vs you.
it's senior day & harvest Bowl day, they will be ready to go & I expect a 31-17 win. USD will give then then game
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Post by yoteforever on Nov 15, 2021 9:09:27 GMT -6
I will add that a win would mean co-champions. NDSU, USD, and MSU would all be tied and hold a 1-1 record against each other, giving all 3 legit claims. SIU could also get into this tie and be able to claim a title, but they went 0-1 against the group and played an obviously weaker schedule. I can't figure out how to do the tiebreaker on these scenarios. It doesn't really matter because the tiebreaker simply decides who gets the conference's automatic bid to the playoffs. I would have no problem claiming a title and would firmly believe we stand alone if we manage to sweep the Dakotas in the regular season. I was gonna correct you and say….No, they beat SDSU. Then I realized they would be in 5th place at best. hahahahahaha |
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Post by Yotes on Nov 15, 2021 12:27:49 GMT -6
You guys wanna combine the 2 NDSU SUPER BOWL threads? I don't know which to reply to. NDSU in their fans eyes have had a horrible season, yet here they are 9-1. my only beef is our offensive playcalling, game plan & that we switched QBS in middle of season. Cam will keep starting, but Quincy will wildcat & run about 5 plays this week vs you. it's senior day & harvest Bowl day, they will be ready to go & I expect a 31-17 win. USD will give then then game Ah, so you'll be disappointed win or lose? Just forfeit the game and have an open forum on the field about wasting away in Conference USA then. |
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Post by Yotes on Nov 15, 2021 13:32:01 GMT -6
Sitting at 16 and 16 in the latest polls. Hardly moved up at all. Maybe we can get up to 15 if we win on Saturday.
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Post by nccyote on Nov 15, 2021 13:40:59 GMT -6
I haven't followed ndsu much of late. Watching the little bit of their game vs. sdsu they didn't look very explosive or multiple on offense. Their offense reminded me a lot of UNI...dangerous weapons but the QB struggles with consistency. the FargoDome will be a raucous environment, but we've beaten a far better ndsu team there with a far inferior USD team before. Now that we are essentially equals roster wise, I like our chances.
Handle the crowd by controlling the ball and LOS. take care of the little things, no turnovers or stupid penalties. I trust the defense to play well and that will give us a chance no matter who the opponent is. Time to end the conference title drought!
Man, it's great to be a COYOTE!
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Post by yoteforever on Nov 15, 2021 13:53:08 GMT -6
Ok, here’s some stats to digest for those that think NDSU is premier. We have 6 common opponents. North Dakota, UNI, ISU red and blue and SDSU.
Because the two ISU’s are in the bottom, I eliminated them for comparison stats. So look at this:
UND had 9 more total yards than NDSU. USD had 162 more yards than UND
UNI had 18 more total yards than NDSU. UNI had 79 more yards than USD
NDSU had 12 more total yards than Missouri State. Missouri State had 78 more yards than USD
NDSU had 16 more total yards than SDSU. USD had 74 more total yards than SDSU
Add the 4 games together NDSU had 1 more total yards than 4 opponents. USD had 79 more total yards than opponents
Now stats on point differential:
NDSU outscored those common 4 opponents by 19 points. USD outscored their common opponents by 15 points
Look at these numbers and convince me this isn’t another 4 quarter fist fight. If the crowd noise doesn’t bother the Coyotes, I see this coming down to last punch thrown. All statistics point to a WAR.
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Post by yoteforever on Nov 15, 2021 14:28:33 GMT -6
Followup statistic:
In the 4 game comparison I did above here’s how it plays out
Total rushing yards:
NDSU 695 Average per game 173.75
USD. 614 Average per game 153.50
Total passing yards:
NDSU 646 Average per game 161.50
USD 901 Average per game 225.75
Defensive averages:
Total rushing yards given up
NDSU 497 Average per game 124.25
USD 426 Average per game 106.50
Total passing yards given up
NDSU 843. Average per game 210.75
USD 1012 Average per game 253.00
Total yards given up
NDSU 1340 Average per game 335
USD 1438 Average per game 359.50
Rushing:
NDSU averages 173.75 Coyote defense averages 106.50
USD averages 153.50 Bison defense averages 124.25
Passing:
NDSU averages 161.50 Coyote defense averages 253.00
USD averages 225.75 Bison defense averages 210.75
Analyze all of that and one stat sticks out who may win this game. Bison rushing vs Coyote defense. 67 yard discrepancy. If the Bison struggle running the ball, it appears they are not dangerous enough in the air to win the ball game. Our defensive front 7 will determine who wins this game.
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Post by elcoyote on Nov 15, 2021 16:13:03 GMT -6
Sitting at 16 and 16 in the latest polls. Hardly moved up at all. Maybe we can get up to 15 if we win on Saturday. At least UNI isn't rated ahead of us any more. |
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