Hate State Week! (part 1) vs. SDSU

[kiyoat]

Just starting the thread... and, go.

*edit: here are the game day links:

[elcoyote]

Hoping for an exciting, hard-fought game which will be a nice change from the 40-point snooze fests of last week. Defense will carry the day and lead to a Coyote win.

[kiyoat]

Prognosticators:
Yotes win 64-58 (-6) Massey
Yotes win 64-57 (-7) Warren Nolan
Yotes win 64-56 (-8) ELO

wow! there is actually some correlation here. I'm not going to put a guess out there personally. This is basically the first of three title matches. I like the Yotes at home, but rivalry games can get funny, and the Jacks are a capable group.  They will need the crowd to create that intimidating atmosphere.

[kiyoat]

I would maybe pick the over using the Massey/WN/ELO predictions. Both teams have really found their offense once the Summit games started, so we can throw out some of the non conference data.

The Jacks, unsurprisingly, are a different team offensively with Selland playing. OTOH, both teams take pride in their defense. Who knows?

[Men's League Waterboy]

How the Selland vs. Watson and Sjerven vs. Everybody SDSU Can Muster matchups shake out are going to go a long way in this one but it sure seems to me that it's going to be really tough for State to find enough scoring against the U's airtight defense to win this game. Can State piece together enough O to keep pace with the Big 3? I tend to doubt it from what I've seen so far this season, but we shall see.

[gopheryote]

Given the travel-partners set up, the common opponents so far make for a meaningful comparison:

Game	SDSU Margin	USD Margin	Time When Winning Point Scored
@ ORU	+20	+31	SDSU 3:27 Q3; USD 4:25 Q3
@ KC	+7	+10	SDSU 0:41 Q4; USD 6:38 Q4
NDSU	+17	+27	SDSU 9:41 Q4; USD 3:42 Q3
UND	+18	+39	SDSU 8:42 Q4; USD 7:45 Q3

I didn't really trust the margin of victory, since the Yotes have put the end of the bench in pretty early for all but KC. But this comparison seems to imply that in the four common opponents, only ORU was about the same, and the other three were much tighter for SDSU than for USD. KC was the only game USD had decided in the 4th quarter, but SDSU's was decided in the final minute. 

[gopheryote]

Jan 3, 2022 14:37:46 GMT -6 Men's League Waterboy said:

How the Selland vs. Watson and Sjerven vs. Everybody SDSU Can Muster matchups shake out are going to go a long way in this one but it sure seems to me that it's going to be really tough for State to find enough scoring against the U's airtight defense to win this game. Can State piece together enough O to keep pace with the Big 3? I tend to doubt it from what I've seen so far this season, but we shall see.

I'm most excited to watch this match up. Coach P hasn't traditionally tried to take the other team's best player out of the game (denying the ball, double teams, any sort of junk-defense), so I'm guessing it will be pretty straight-up. (PS - can't say I agree with that approach, but what do I know.) Selland will have a ton of experience on her side, but Watson is so much quicker and more athletic. Will be fun to watch. 

[Men's League Waterboy]

It's going to be a great matchup. Watson seems almost tailor-made to defend Selland in a lot of ways but Selland is so good, deceptively good, in so many areas. Skilled, smart, strong, athletic. She's going to have to have a really big game for the Jacks to win, though, and that will be tough with Watson bird-dogging her all night and I don't believe Selland is probably full strength, either. But I'm looking forward to that game within the game as much as any so far this season. Again, unless something crazy happens, Theuninck or somebody coming off the bench and hitting five 3s or something, I have my doubts about State being able to put enough points on the board. But it's a rivalry game. Never know.

[kiyoat]

Selland has been playing 25 minutes a game in the four conference games. This is not an average. She has literally played exactly 25 minutes in each game. Very strange. I'm sure this is a game they have probably been saving her for, though.

[kiyoat]

So, I wanted to put some numbers to the thought that Selland's presence has improved the Jacks' offense, and compare it to the Yotes' recent offensive success.  The dividing line between early and late offense is similar for both teams:

Myah did play a couple of games mid-non-con against UMass and UCLA, and had the additional injury.  But I'm focusing on her more recent games.  She rejoined the team for the last D-1 non-con opponent, Kansas State, and has been playing limited minutes since then. (I'm not counting NAIA or D-2 opponents for this).

For the Yotes, the big change seemed to also happen in our final D-1 non-conference opponent, Creighton.

After that, we have had common opponents, so this works perfectly.

	PPG	PPG vs opponent average*
SDSU: 9 games before KSU	63.4	+2.6
SDSU: KSU and after	75.6	+12.8
-----------------------------	----	----
USD: 9 games before Creighton	58.9	(-4.9)
USD: Creighton and after	76.0	+11.76

* difference between points scored and the opponent's season average scoring defense

The difference is striking.  Both teams are now scoring on their opponent by 12 to 13 points above their season average scoring defense!  Both teams' offenses are essentially tuned up, revved up, and ready to put on a show.

[Coyote Fan]

I look at this one as an even game in Frost but when in Vermillion I give the Coyotes a 8-10 point advantage. I see this as a fairly standard 72-60 win.

[kiyoat]

Here's a major stats comparison, using conference-only stats.

stat	USD	(opponent)	SDSU	(opponent)
PPG	76.8	50.0	76.3	60.8
SCOR MARG	+26.8		+15.5
FG%	.496	.349	.498	.427
3P%	.392	.213	.413	.313
3P/G	7.8		8.3
FT%	.702		.754
FT/G	10.0	8.75	11.5	9.25
------
REB MARG	0.0		+8.8
ASST/G	16.75		17.50
TO/G	9.0	18.8	12.5	13.0
TO MARG	+9.75		+0.50
ASST/TO	1.86		1.40
---------
STEAL	10.25		6.75
BLOCK	4.50		3.00	Row 15 column 5

[kiyoat]

Scoring/shooting:
Looks like we have a much better defense, both in scoring and shooting percentage. They have a slightly better offense, both in scoring and shooting percentages.

= slight edge Yotes

Fouls/Free-throws:
Looks like they are drawing more fouls and getting to the line slightly better than the Yotes, but the Yotes are committing fewer fouls, so that's a wash. The Jacks are shooting slightly better from the stripe.

= slight edge Jacks

Ball Control:
The Jacks are the better rebounding team, and we are the better team at both forcing and not committing turnovers. Both stats are pretty extreme. In terms of # possessions, they cancel each other out.

= no advantage

So I'd say that these two teams are very similarly built, and have strengths and weaknesses that compliment each other. The three factors that will probably determine the winner might be:

the Yotes' defense, the Jacks' 3-point shooting, and who's best players get in early foul trouble.

Should be a fun game for fans!

[kiyoat]

GoYotes preview article is out

goyotes.com/news/2022/1/5/womens-basketball-coyotes-jackrabbits-clash-saturday-in-vermillion.aspx


THE JACKRABBITS

South Dakota State (8-7, 4-0) returned to the CollegeInsider.com Mid-Major poll this week at No. 25. The Jackrabbits are the only other Summit team to remain undefeated in league play. The Jackrabbits have been getting it done with a balanced offense. All five starters are averaging double-figures in league play. Summit League Preseason Player of the Year Myah Selland was limited to just four nonconference games due to injury, but has played in all four of the Jacks' Summit wins, averaging 10.8 points a game in the Summit. Paiton Burckhard and Tylee Irwin joined her on the preseason first team and are averaging 11 points and 10.8 points a game, respectively. True freshman Paige Meyer leads the squad at 14 points per game in Summit action, while Tori Nelson pitches in 10 more.



THE SERIES

South Dakota State leads the all-time series 60-33 after sweeping the two games last year, although last season was the first time in the series history that both State-U games were held in Brookings. The Jackrabbits' last trip to Vermillion was Jan. 19, 2020, when the Coyotes ran away with it 83-48. South Dakota has won six-straight meetings in Vermillion. Coyote coach Dawn Plitzuweit holds a 7-6 edge over the Jackrabbits since taking over the helm in 2016.

[kiyoat]

mid-week pressers from both coaches: