@ SDSU | Saturday, Jan 14 | 1PM | MidcoSN/ ESPN3

[kiyoat]

Showdown week.
(see the bottom of this post for my mirror scheduling rant...)

Predictions:
Jacks win 70-62 (+8) Massey
Jacks win 82-57 (+25) Warren Nolan 

Series history:
Total (since 1972): .......Jacks ahead 61-35
Division II (1972-2004) Jacks ahead 44-21
Division I (2010-) ........Jacks ahead 17-14
since Amy's 2nd season: Yotes ahead 13-12
since Dawn's 1st season: Yotes ahead 9-7

Yotes' D-I record @ Frost Arena: 3-10

None of this series history means much in terms of the likely outcome of this game, of course.  But it is interesting, nonetheless.  The series was very streaky in D-II.  The Jacks won every game from 1972-77, then the Yotes won almost every game from 1978-1987, then the Jacks won almost every game from 1991-2014. 

The turning point was the upset win in the 2014 Summit League Tournament semifinal.  After that, these teams have been virtually neck-and-neck at the top of the league.  From the 2013-14 season on, both teams have won 4 tournament titles and at least 4 regular-season titles (we have 8).  Both teams have WNIT championship wins, and both teams have been to the NCAA Sweet 16.

That's a pretty amazing nine-year-span, when you think about it.  All from a state with less than a million people.

I'll add some more stuff to this thread, but for now...

The following is an unpaid and subjective rant, brought to you by kiyoat:

For some reason, the Summit thought it would be fun to play all the WBB and MBB games on the same day, in separate cities ... EVEN THIS GAME!

I can't understand why they wouldn't at least offset the days, like they did with the UND/NDSU games?  I mean, from a strictly monetary, pragmatic standpoint, they are literally leaving money on the table.  Among many other reasons this shouldn't happen like it is.  The Summit is doing it's biggest and oldest rivalries dirty.

[Men's League Waterboy]

I like how Massey and Nolan seem to encapsulate the wild swings in the Yotes' consistency perfectly in those predictions.

It will be interesting to see how the Jacks try to take away Larkins. I keep thinking somebody is going to slow her down, but she's just so quick/fast on that initial move that you almost can't stay with her and then if you do, she's just crafty enough with that stop and spin/step through she does back to her left that she just gets so many lay-ups. It's a treat to watch. But SDSU in Frost is always going to bring that extra bit of juice and physicality that along with the crowd feels a bit different. I'd think Timmer gets the assignment but maybe they think Nelson's size will be the way to go if she's quick enough?

Regardless, somebody (and really probably a couple of somebodies) is going to have to find a little bit of offensive aggression in this one and take some of the load off of Larkins because I would imagine she'll be seeing the full force of a week of preparation. Hempe or Duffney or somebody making Selland have to work a bit on the defensive end is going to have to happen to have a chance. 

[MD]

On the flip side of that who is going to guard Selland, or how are we going to defend her? I'm not the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree but when I play this game out in my mind she has like 40 points.

[Men's League Waterboy]

Exactly. I edited my post above right as you posted. Somebody's got to make her work on the other end and then there might need to be some praying going on. Maybe draw a couple quick ones or something.

[90yote]

Jan 10, 2023 10:07:44 GMT -6 MD said:

On the flip side of that who is going to guard Selland, or how are we going to defend her? I'm not the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree but when I play this game out in my mind she has like 40 points.

Yes. This, among other reasons, is why I think this is a really bad matchup for the Yotes. Watson really defended her well, capped by the 0-10 performance from Selland in the Summit championship game. Watson could guard her on the perimeter and was strong enough to keep her from the rim. They really don't have anyone who could even slow her down, I don't think. Carson has the length, but a) she's not nearly strong enough yet, and b) cedes way too much ground in the post before contact.

There are other matchup problems as well. Jacks like to play their backup posts together, and I'm not sure what the Yotes can do with that. Perhaps Duffney can make them pay on the other end if they do that.

Yotes have been improving, and I've been more optimistic about this year lately. But I'd be happy with anything reasonably close this weekend. Avoid getting run off the floor and then we can discuss giving them a run in the SCSC in a month.

[soofooyote]

I can tell you no one in the world was happier to see Kyah Watson go to WVU than Selland. Watson absolutely owned her on the defensive end.

[kiyoat]

Weekly Presser with Coach AJ:

[kiyoat]

Some quotes from AJ Presser:

On Paige Meyers working into more playing time:
Paige is doing great.  She's not on any major restriction, or anything like that... she's really healthy... it's just more of physically getting to a place where you can play more and more minutes; building up your stamina and strength....

On the Jacks issues defending the 3-point line:
...We lose people on screening actions, ... I don't think we've defended with the kind of aggressiveness that we're capable of for a long time.  And that really shows up on the 3-point line.  Our tendency has been to be a little more passive on the perimeter, trying to keep people in front of us... That's not what we are emphasizing (in practice), but I think that's been our comfort zone.  We've gotta get out of that and trust that when we put more pressure on people, others will help, and rotate...as a whole, we need more urgency there... We've played some games in-conference where the 3-point line has helped teams to stay in games...

On USD's offense running through Larkins:
We're going on a stretch of three games against teams with really great guards; NDSU, UND, and now USD.  Each team has a player who is a "scoring guard" who goes out there and does hunt up shots, and who is a volume-type scorer.  (Grace) is that.  And she does a great job for her team.  They have other players around her who can make shots, and they have balance, but she is a player who can... make buckets out of an offense, and she can also do it on her own.  We'll have to have a good team plan to try and keep her under control, but she takes a lot of shots.  It's hard to slow her down.

[kiyoat]

I'll acknowledge that a lot of what AJ says is coach-speak, always talking up the opponent. But I do hope that the arc-shooting can keep us in this game, because they will absolutely out-physical us in the paint.

[kiyoat]

Comments from Coach K about her team and this matchup in the Coyote Report a couple of days ago:

goyotes.com/sports/2019/8/28/yotecast-podcast.aspx

On the team's growth:
...If you look at our team from two months ago... we feel like we've grown.  We've matured, can handle pressure better... they've gotta grow up really fast.... Our hope is two months from now, we don't look like the same team again.  We will look even better, sharper, have better chemistry, execute better, get stops down the stretch...

On Grace Larkins:
She played a certain role last year, but now she has a different role.  She handles the ball a lot, and has a lot of the scoring load.  Teams are keying in on her, and collapsing in on her.  When that happens, she is now doing a much better job of keeping her head up and finding the next open player.... her assist numbers are really important for our team... you can't win these games with only one good player...

On Nicole AA's emergence:
(I see) Confidence.  When you look back two months ago, she's not the same player.  Her role has shifted quite a bit (with injuries)... When she came in this summer, we thought: "she gives us a great athlete, a pesky on-ball defender, a very capable 3-point shooter, and someone who maybe could develop her driving to the rim and scoring even more" - we were thinking: "she's probably the 2nd or 3rd guard off the bench"...

...with all the injuries we've dealt with, now she's the first guard off the bench.  Now we are expecting things from (her).  That can be hard to adjust to.  I think for a little while it was a little overwhelming (for her).  She's certainly capable (of scoring), but she was barely looking at the rim, and wasn't aggressive.  I think she was hiding what she was really good at. 

It's so rewarding to finally see that click for a player... we were all so pumped for her game on Thursday night.  She had 7 steals, too.  She is so pesky.  You do NOT want her guarding you.  She's all over the place.  I think if she can keep developing her confidence... for some kids it's a slow journey... as long as she keeps trending upwards, we're in good shape.

On Carley Duffney earning more minutes:
With Jeniah injured, and Walker (learning, and sometimes getting into foul trouble), we have sometimes been rolling with a smaller, faster lineup.  We've started toying with putting Carley in the 5-spot back in the Fall, and introduced her to it.  Not that she's always with her back to the basket.  She can certainly out-run a lot of post players.  We got to see that this weekend... Carly can really take a lot of those post players off the dribble, and get to the rim and score it.  She's a great free-throw shooter, and I think she's starting to gain confidence, starting to find her footing more.

[kiyoat]

more quotes from Coach K

On finding more balance offensively:
..Grace forces teams to play at her speed, and not a lot of teams can keep up with that, but there are times that we talk about shot selection... when you pass up a "good" shot, ... then get your teammates involved, and force the other team to defend you, ... and end up with a "great" shot.  If we're going to play more versatile, and get everyone involved, that's what we are going to need to do.

On how the team has grown in the past week:
After the WIU loss, I thought we needed to get back to being "gritty"; being the first to the ball.  The 50/50 balls didn't go our way at WIU.  It's a matter of us owning that, and getting back to what is controllable.  Sometimes your shooting is great, sometimes not.  So what are the things  you can buy into every day?  If you are the first to every loose ball.  Boxing out, being the first to a rebound.  You make up for a lot of mistakes when you can be gritty.  We got beat to the ball a ton of times at WIU...

Against UND we had it.  I think in the first half of the NDSU game we didn't.  In the 2nd half we got back to those hustle plays.  The gritty-ness is something that is going to be a non-negotiable for us moving forward.

On SDSU:
...they are a really veteran team... Selland is a force to be reckoned with.  Meyers is back now, Gylten, Burchard, I could go on and on.  They have a lot of weapons, they're versatile, they score inside and outside, they are really long, they're a great passing team.  Early on, I think they had some struggles, and I think it mainly had to do with them not shooting the ball well.  I think they got the looks they normally get, but ... just didn't shoot it quite as well.  But now they have really picked it up (offensively), along with their great defense and passing.  So they are certainly a very solid team... they have a lot of chemistry built from years of playing together.  And they have the depth to be a very good basketball team.

On the matchup:
I just feel like (our teams) are so different.  Our programs are in very different spots now...  (SDSU) really goes nine or ten deep right now that can give them some scoring on the floor... We have all new and young players, with no starters returning from last year.  We're starting to hit our stride, too...  We're starting to put all the pieces together... but (our teams) are just in really different spots.

It's going to be important for us to just go and play fearless.  Play with nothing to lose.  It's a tough place to play.

This is one of the best (rivalries).  I didn't know anything about it, really, until I came here as an assistant coach, and saw the seriousness that some people have with this.  Even though there's no dead coyotes being flung onto the court anymore, it's still really serious.  People really get up for it.  It's gonna be a really fun rivalry game, no doubt.  It means a lot, especially with our players that are from SD.  You've gotta love it.  This is why college athletics (is so great).

At the same time, our players just need to go in there fearless, and play with that grittiness that we've been developing, and you give yourselves a good shot.

On how to disrupt the Jacks' inside offense:
They've got great size, which we saw with NDSU.  Size and length around the rim.  It's been a good mix-up for us to be fronting in the post, and provide some backside help...we're really moving our feet well... we just don't have the size for it.  So the activity level for us defensively is gonna have to be there.  We're gonna need some ball pressure out there to deflect or take vision away from interior passing.  We're gonna have to be really physical, and really gritty inside, to try and and match up with them.

With Selland, early in the season... it didn't appear that her numbers were overwhelming, but when you actually sit and watch the games, whenever they need a bucket, they go to her, and she responds.  So numbers or not,... (she's a fantastic player, and one of the top in the league, if not THE top)  But she makes baskets when it matters.  And that's what you need out of a senior leader.... so she'll be someone that they go to often, I'm sure.

[soofooyote]

Anyone know when Mazurek is going to get back on the court?

[kiyoat]

A Conference-only stats comparison is actually meaningful between these two teams, since they have the exact same conference schedules...

That being said, there isn't much to report.  Both teams are neck-and-neck in multiple stats, usually with the Jacks on the better side of the comparison.  Even in the one stat the Jacks are really bad at (3-point defense), the Yotes are pretty average there, too.  Both teams are average in the Summit in FT%, which is to say that both teams are pretty good there.

The biggest opportunity for the Yotes might be to get hot shooting from the arc, which is not a consistent thing to hang our hats on, but it's what we have.

Our turnover margin has really tanked recently, and I don't think that's very characteristic of this group.  We will have to be better in that category if we want to compete.

[fanatic]

Selland is so old she might get arthritis by halftime. Remember the championship game last year she was 0-11. Stick close to her and she will fold.

[Men's League Waterboy]

As others have rightly pointed out, a defense sans Watson and Sjerven is certainly going to prove less fold-inducing for Ms. Selland.